Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
Dynamics
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

 |  HOME  |  WEB LOG  |  COUNTRY WIKI  |  COMMENT  |  FORUM  |  DOWNLOADS  |  ABOUT  | 

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Mar-08
Palestinian opinion shifts toward greater confrontation with Israel

Web Log - March, 2008

Palestinian opinion shifts toward greater confrontation with Israel

A Khalil Shikaki poll shows increasing acceptance of violence against Israel in the Palestinian territories. The poll was conducted by Shikaki's Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research.

Shikaki told the NY Times that he was shocked because the survey showed greater support for violence than ever before, and that, for the first time, a majority favored an end to negotiations and the shooting of rockets at Israel. According to Shikaki,

"There is real reason to be concerned. The anger that this poll is registering is about equal to that at the very height of the second intifada. I am very worried about what is coming."

Related Articles

Israel/Gaza
Gaza war heads toward cease-fire, while violence surges in Sri Lanka: Thousands of civilians' lives are at risk by army attacking terrorists responsible for suicide bombings.... (19-Jan-2009)
In Gaza and Sri Lanka, war slides into genocide.: Both wars are getting increasingly meaner and nastier.... (6-Jan-2009)
Israel begins ground invasion into Gaza: The region appears to be teetering on the edge of wider war... (3-Jan-2009)
Israel declares "war to the bitter end" and "all-out war" against Hamas in Gaza: The rhetoric indicates an extremely dangerous situation.... (30-Dec-2008)
Israel's rocket attack on Gaza opens continues a week of sharp escalation: Hundreds of Palestinians were killed or injured Saturday,... (27-Dec-2008)
Palestinian opinion shifts toward greater confrontation with Israel: A Khalil Shikaki poll shows increasing acceptance of violence against Israel... (24-Mar-08)
Violence in Gaza escalates significantly as Israel contemplates an invasion: American warships are off the Lebanon coast to promote "regional stability."... (1-Mar-08)
Suicide bombing in Israel blamed on the Gaza border opening: Although Egypt finally closed the border on Sunday,... (5-Feb-08)
Egypt's failure to close the Gaza border further destabilizes the region.: Changing events brings Israelis, Palestinians and Egyptians into further confrontation and conflict.... (26-Jan-08)
In dramatic scene, 60,000 Gazans pour into Egypt through holes blasted through border wall: Euphoric Gazans go shopping, bring back food, fuel and fertilizer.... (24-Jan-08)
Israeli blockade of Gaza triggers protests against Egypt: Angry Gazans stormed the Rafah crossing into Egypt on Tuesday,... (22-Jan-08)
Violence continues in Gaza as Israel kills 18 to stop rocket attacks: President Bush's new Mideast peace initiative has a zero chance of success.... (17-Jan-08)
Tony Blair compares the Mideast peace process to the Northern Ireland peace process: Generational Dynamics illuminates when such historical comparisons are valid and when they are not.... (30-Nov-07)
Mideast summit in Annapolis has feel of act of desperation: No one appears to have any expectations whatsoever -- talking just to talk.... (27-Nov-07)
Hamas fires on civilian Palestinian crowd commemorating Yasser Arafat: Eight people were killed when Hamas gunmen fired into the crowd.... (13-Nov-07)
Pressure is building in Israel for a new invasion of Gaza: Surprisingly, many Palestinians are allying with Israel against Hamas.... (12-Sep-07)
Hamas' stunning Gaza victory shocks entire Mideast: A major realignment of unknown proportions is occurring throughout the Mideast.... (22-Jun-07)
Abbas dissolves the Palestinian Authority as Hamas overpowers Fatah in Gaza: There are now effectively two Palestinian Authorities,... (15-Jun-07)
Hamas presses for control in Gaza, Fatah gets revenge in West Bank: The U.N. is considering deployment of a multinational force in Gaza,... (14-Jun-07)
Palestinian road to civil war escalates another step: Gunfights escalated to larger military actions in northern Gaza... (13-Jun-07)
Jordan's King Abdullah renews stark warnings about Palestinian problem: Both Israelis and Palestinians are becoming increasingly furious at each other,... (22-May-07)
Gaza close to state of emergency as Israel tries to avoid getting pulled in: The streets of Gaza are clear except for gunmen today,... (16-May-07)
Palestinian Interior Minister resigns as escalated Gaza violence threatens civil war: Six people were killed and dozens wounded over the weekend... (15-May-07)
Palestinian "unity government" leading soon to new crisis with Israel: As the young generation of Palestinians become increasingly "lost and desperate,"... (14-Mar-07)
Jordan's King Abdullah tells Congress that Palestinian issue is the core issue: Unfortunately few in Congress know what he's talking about.... (8-Mar-07)
"Palestinians don't deserve a state": Even the most optimistic Palestinians are despairing that their dream is slipping away.... (4-Feb-07)
Fatah storms Hamas stronghold in Gaza: Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas appears to be carrying out his ultimatum to Hamas,... (1-Feb-07)
Palestinian civil war between Hamas and Fatah now seems inevitable: Peace talks and ceasefires seem close to being over for good.... (29-Jan-07)
Palestinians' Fatah/Hamas crisis increases as Israeli government is close to anarchy: The possibility of a Hamas vs Fatah civil war in the Palestinian territories appears to be increasing by the day.... (7-Jan-07)
In desperation gamble, Mahmoud Abbas calls for new Palestinian elections: Hoping to end political deadlock and head off a Palestinian civil war,... (16-Dec-06)
Will Mohammed Dahlan trigger a Palestinian civil war?: Hamas blames the young Fatah terrorist for the near-assassination of Prime Minister Haniyeh.... (16-Dec-06)
Interviews with young Gazans spotlight road to war: For these young fighters, attacking Israel is an end, rather than a means to a political end.... (10-Dec-06)
Can we "Flip Syria" and solve all the Mideast problems?: Even by Washington standards, Wednesday was possibly the most bizarre day on record.... (7-Dec-06)
Jordan's King Abdullah warns of explosions in Palestine and Lebanon: Abdullah repeatedly chided the ABC News interviewer Stephanopolous, who remained completely oblivious... (26-Nov-06)
Level of loathing between Israelis and Palestinians increases: According to an online correspondent with contacts in the Israeli government,... (27-Sep-06)
Tony Blair commits the rest of his term to solving the Mideast problem: Meanwhile, the Palestinians announce a unity government -- with a condition.... (12-Sep-06)
Israel re-occupies Gaza and abandons West Bank "convergence": Lawlessness has gotten so bad in Gaza that even Hamas apologized... (8-Sep-06)
Aftermath of Lebanese war: The winners and losers: Everyone seemed to follow his generational archetype, as if hypnotized to do so.... (6-Sep-06)
Some random notes on the Mideast crisis: First off, dislodging Hizbollah from the Israeli border is almost impossible.... (21-Jul-06)
Mideast war now centers around Hizbollah's Hassan Nasrallah: Nasrallah splits the Arab world and draws international support for Israel... (17-Jul-06)
The European Union is "extremely concerned" about Mideast tensions: But guess what the EU politicians express "particular concern" about!... (3-Jul-06)
Israeli armed forces mass on Gaza border after soldier's kidnapping: Egyptian mediators are attempting to head off a "large scale military offensive"... (26-Jun-06)
Tensions reaching the boiling point among Palestinians and Israelis: So-called "pinpoint" Israeli missile strikes have killed several civilians, including children... (21-Jun-06)
Ex-CIA chief James Woolsey says Gaza pullout was "Worst result possible": Five bystanders, including a pregnant woman, were killed by Palestinian gunmen... (5-Jun-06)
Hamas and Fatah armies gearing up for major confrontation in Gaza Strip: Egypt and Lebanon are also being increasingly threatened by the escalating violence.... (23-May-06)
Palestinian Authority and Hamas deploy rival armies in Gaza: In open defiance of PA president Mahmoud Abbas, Hamas mounted an illegal 3,000 man militia force... (17-May-06)
Saudi and other Mideast stock markets appear to be crashing: While Wall Street is rocketing toward a historic new high,... (7-May-06)
International game of "chicken" leading to disaster in Gaza: Mideast envoy James Wolfensohn quits in disgust with all participants in the so-called "peace process."... (5-May-06)
Crunch time for Hamas, as American and European aid is cut off to Palestinians.: Will they "cry uncle" and recognize Israel in exchange for financial aid?... (10-Apr-06)
International political chaos grips Israel, Palestine, and everyone else, as Hamas takes over on Saturday: No one, not even Hamas itself, has any idea what to do next, except to let events play out as they will.... (18-Feb-06)
Hamas victory and cartoon controversy significantly affect chances of Mideast war: It's time to change to the world conflict risk graphic.... (10-Feb-06)
Hamas victory throws Mideast 'peace process' into disarray and turmoil: What struck me most, seeing the cheering Hamas supporters on TV yesterday,... (27-Jan-06)
Sudden generational shift puts Palestinian "Young Guard" threatening "Old Guard": Younger generations in control in Palestine and Israel bring war closer.... (16-Dec-05)
Gaza violence spiking up as Israel launches "crushing response" to rocket attacks: Hamas promised to stop attacking Israel from Gaza, to prevent spiraling out of control.... (26-Sep-05)
Gaza strip descending into further chaos and lawlessness following Israeli withdrawal: Black market prices for weapons have been falling sharply in Gaza,... (14-Sep-05)
With Israelis almost gone, Gaza is becoming increasingly violent and unstable: Especially ominous is the planned intervention by Egypt as border guards.... (8-Sep-05)
Israel withdraws from Gaza amid hopes for peace and fears of instability: Here's what you should watch for in the weeks ahead.... (16-Aug-05)
Ariel Sharon and Mahmoud Abbas meet as Mideast cease-fire unravels: Like Britain vs France, Israel vs Palestinian Authority meetings are becoming increasingly confrontational.... (22-Jun-05)
Abbas is increasingly losing control of Gaza and the West Bank: Palestinian militants are infuriated by Abbas' unilateral cancellation of parliamentary elections.... (6-Jun-05)
Some notes on current news in Darfur, Palestine and Ukraine: It appears that the genocidal crisis war in Darfur, Sudan, may be ending.... (24-Jan-05)
NY Post: "Arafat Dead - And he won't be missed.": I look at Arafat's life very, very differently.... (14-Nov-04)
Top Israeli aide says that Israel has abandoned the American-sponsored 'Road Map to Peace': The plan to create a Palestinian state has effectively been scuttled... (7-Oct-04)
Israel makes it official: The American-backed "road map to peace" is dead.: In fact, Israel itself is in enormous turmoil today because of Ariel Sharon's disengagement plan.... (16-Sep-04)
A dramatic shift in Palestinian opinion, as Arafat retains control: Major violence has not yet spread from Gaza to West Bank, but the question of whether things will "spiral out of control"... (1-Aug-04)
Beheadings part of increasing conflict level throughout Mideast: The level of conflict is increasing throughout the Mideast, from Gaza to Pakistan, from Saudi Arabia to Uzbekistan. (23-Jun-2004)
"Mideast Roadmap" - Will it bring peace?: Generational Dynamics predicts something quite different for the Mideast. (01-May-03)

Here's are the main findings from the poll:

"Findings indicate that a major shift, in Hamasís favor, had occurred during the last three months with about 10% of the population shifting their attitudes and perceptions. The change included increased popularity of Hamas and its leadership, increased support for its positions and legitimacy, and greater satisfaction with its performance. These changes might have been the result of several political developments
  • starting with the breaching of the Rafah border with Egypt during the last week of January and first week of February,
  • followed by the Israeli military incursion into the Gaza Strip
  • leading to a large number of Palestinian causalities and
  • an increase in the number of rockets launched from the Gaza Strip against Israeli towns such as Sderot and Ashkelon,
  • the two suicide attacks in Dimona and Jerusalem leading to the death of nine Israelis, and
  • ending with the failure of the Annapolis process in positively affecting daily life of Palestinians in the West Bank, in stopping Israeli settlement activities, or in producing progress in final status negotiations.
These developments managed to present Hamas as successful in breaking the siege and as a victim of Israeli attacks. These also presented Palestinian President Abbas and his Fateh faction as impotent, unable to change the bitter reality in the West Bank or ending Israeli occupation through diplomacy."

As regular readers of this web site know, this is the kind of attitude change that I've been watching for, for several years.

In 2003, when I wrote "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?" I said that the Roadmap would fail, and that the death of Yasser Arafat, when it occurs, would be part of a major generational change that would lead to a new genocidal war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the war between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel in the late 1940s.

Arafat died in November, 2004, and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon went into a coma in January, 2006. These two men cooperated (consciously or unconsciously) in prevent a new genocidal war between Jews and Arabs, but now, with both of them gone, generational forces are taking over, and there is no way to prevent a new war.

Still, I've never yet seen the requisite fury and hatred from the Palestinians toward the Jews that would signal that such a war is getting close. (Nor have I seen it on the Jewish side, either.)

This is only one poll, of course. It indicates not a massive change in attitude, but an incremental change in attitude. But it's a significant change and, even more important, it represents a trend that may well be unstoppable. (24-Mar-08) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Web Log Summary - 2016
Web Log Summary - 2015
Web Log Summary - 2014
Web Log Summary - 2013
Web Log Summary - 2012
Web Log Summary - 2011
Web Log Summary - 2010
Web Log Summary - 2009
Web Log Summary - 2008
Web Log Summary - 2007
Web Log Summary - 2006
Web Log Summary - 2005
Web Log Summary - 2004

Web Log - December, 2016
Web Log - November, 2016
Web Log - October, 2016
Web Log - September, 2016
Web Log - August, 2016
Web Log - July, 2016
Web Log - June, 2016
Web Log - May, 2016
Web Log - April, 2016
Web Log - March, 2016
Web Log - February, 2016
Web Log - January, 2016
Web Log - December, 2015
Web Log - November, 2015
Web Log - October, 2015
Web Log - September, 2015
Web Log - August, 2015
Web Log - July, 2015
Web Log - June, 2015
Web Log - May, 2015
Web Log - April, 2015
Web Log - March, 2015
Web Log - February, 2015
Web Log - January, 2015
Web Log - December, 2014
Web Log - November, 2014
Web Log - October, 2014
Web Log - September, 2014
Web Log - August, 2014
Web Log - July, 2014
Web Log - June, 2014
Web Log - May, 2014
Web Log - April, 2014
Web Log - March, 2014
Web Log - February, 2014
Web Log - January, 2014
Web Log - December, 2013
Web Log - November, 2013
Web Log - October, 2013
Web Log - September, 2013
Web Log - August, 2013
Web Log - July, 2013
Web Log - June, 2013
Web Log - May, 2013
Web Log - April, 2013
Web Log - March, 2013
Web Log - February, 2013
Web Log - January, 2013
Web Log - December, 2012
Web Log - November, 2012
Web Log - October, 2012
Web Log - September, 2012
Web Log - August, 2012
Web Log - July, 2012
Web Log - June, 2012
Web Log - May, 2012
Web Log - April, 2012
Web Log - March, 2012
Web Log - February, 2012
Web Log - January, 2012
Web Log - December, 2011
Web Log - November, 2011
Web Log - October, 2011
Web Log - September, 2011
Web Log - August, 2011
Web Log - July, 2011
Web Log - June, 2011
Web Log - May, 2011
Web Log - April, 2011
Web Log - March, 2011
Web Log - February, 2011
Web Log - January, 2011
Web Log - December, 2010
Web Log - November, 2010
Web Log - October, 2010
Web Log - September, 2010
Web Log - August, 2010
Web Log - July, 2010
Web Log - June, 2010
Web Log - May, 2010
Web Log - April, 2010
Web Log - March, 2010
Web Log - February, 2010
Web Log - January, 2010
Web Log - December, 2009
Web Log - November, 2009
Web Log - October, 2009
Web Log - September, 2009
Web Log - August, 2009
Web Log - July, 2009
Web Log - June, 2009
Web Log - May, 2009
Web Log - April, 2009
Web Log - March, 2009
Web Log - February, 2009
Web Log - January, 2009
Web Log - December, 2008
Web Log - November, 2008
Web Log - October, 2008
Web Log - September, 2008
Web Log - August, 2008
Web Log - July, 2008
Web Log - June, 2008
Web Log - May, 2008
Web Log - April, 2008
Web Log - March, 2008
Web Log - February, 2008
Web Log - January, 2008
Web Log - December, 2007
Web Log - November, 2007
Web Log - October, 2007
Web Log - September, 2007
Web Log - August, 2007
Web Log - July, 2007
Web Log - June, 2007
Web Log - May, 2007
Web Log - April, 2007
Web Log - March, 2007
Web Log - February, 2007
Web Log - January, 2007
Web Log - December, 2006
Web Log - November, 2006
Web Log - October, 2006
Web Log - September, 2006
Web Log - August, 2006
Web Log - July, 2006
Web Log - June, 2006
Web Log - May, 2006
Web Log - April, 2006
Web Log - March, 2006
Web Log - February, 2006
Web Log - January, 2006
Web Log - December, 2005
Web Log - November, 2005
Web Log - October, 2005
Web Log - September, 2005
Web Log - August, 2005
Web Log - July, 2005
Web Log - June, 2005
Web Log - May, 2005
Web Log - April, 2005
Web Log - March, 2005
Web Log - February, 2005
Web Log - January, 2005
Web Log - December, 2004
Web Log - November, 2004
Web Log - October, 2004
Web Log - September, 2004
Web Log - August, 2004
Web Log - July, 2004
Web Log - June, 2004


Copyright © 2002-2016 by John J. Xenakis.