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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Jul-06
Some random notes on the Mideast crisis

Web Log - July, 2006

Some random notes on the Mideast crisis

First off, dislodging Hizbollah from the Israeli border is almost impossible.

That's just one conclusion I've reached today, listening to the coverage of the Mideast crisis on CNN International, Fox news, and BBC. (Sorry, no MSNBC yesterday.)

Here's why:

All day Thursday, a big topic of discussion was this: What about the Lebanese people outside of Hizbollah? Are they pro-Hizbollah or pro-Israel?

The answer appears to be that the country is split on being pro-Hizbollah or anti-Hizbollah, but either way, the people are anti-Israel. The population is increasingly furious at Israel because of the civilian deaths and the destruction of the infrastructure.

Things have gotten so bad in Lebanon that the Lebanese defense minister has announced that the Lebanese army will fight with Hizbollah against Israeli forces, if Israel ground forces invade.

However, a Lebanese pundit in Beirut told CNN that there's another possibility: If the Lebanese army moves into southern Lebanon to join Hizbollah in the fight against Israel, Lebanese army may end up bringing Hizbollah under control. I can't tell whether that's a realistic hope or wishful thinking, but it's the one thing I heard all day that might bring an end to the fighting.

One interesting thing about the discussion of the Lebanon people is that the pundits were discussing all day whether to expect a renewal of the civil war in Lebanon, the civil war that ended in the 1980s.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, regular readers of this web site know that since only one generation has passed since the 1980s crisis civil war, a new civil war is impossible, for the same reason that a civil war in Iraq is impossible. I've written dozens of times on this web site why a civil war in Iraq is impossible, and I won't repeat the reasons here.

In a BBC report on Wednesday, the reporter in Beirut was asked by the London anchor whether he thought that there was a new civil war building. He said that every Lebanese he's spoken to has said that nothing of the sort is happening, which is exactly what Generational Dynamics would predict.

Incidentally, since I'm posting "random notes" on the Mideast crisis, let me post a random note on something else.

A major situation has been developing in Somalia as the country's government is being overthrown by radical Islamists, turning the country into yet one more stronghold for radical terrorists.

Yesterday, the neighboring country Ethiopia, has sent troops into Somalia to oppose the Islamists.

This is a very dangerous situation, but I simply haven't had time yet to put together an article on it. But readers of this web site should at least be aware of the situation, and keep any eye on it. (21-Jul-06) Permanent Link
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