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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Feb-06
Hamas victory and cartoon controversy significantly affect chances of Mideast war

Web Log - February, 2006

Hamas victory and cartoon controversy significantly affect chances of Mideast war

It's time to change to the world conflict risk graphic.

The world has been changing rapidly in the last few months -- much more quickly than before.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 30-May-2005
W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 2
Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 1
China 2 North Korea 3
Financial 3 Bird flu 3
Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

The graphic on the right, which I first posted in May, 2005, represents my view of where the greatest dangers are in the world. I once wrote an article on The Six Most Dangerous Regions of the World, so chosen because a regional war in any one of these regions will trigger a world war. The graphic lists those reasons, and I've added a financial crisis and a bird flu pandemic as two additional crises that could trigger a world war.

Generational Dynamics predicts that all of these crises (with the possible exception of a bird flu pandemic, about which Generational Dynamics has nothing to say) will occur in the context of a new world war with near mathematical certainty. However, Generational Dynamics only tells you for sure what your destination is - not how you'll get there. The conflict risk graphic is not a firm prediction; it highlights my opinion about which crises are more likely to occur first.

Here's the new modified graphic:

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006
W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3
Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2
China 2 North Korea 2
Financial 3 Bird flu 3
Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

We've made three changes:

Here's the long form graphic:

Conflict risk level by region/type for next six months
As of: 9-Feb-2006
W. Europe 1 Rising nationalism and ethnic tensions, but no overt national hostilities yet
Arab Israeli 3 Hamas election victory, loss of Ariel Sharon, rising influence of Iran, now fueled by Danish cartoon contoversy, could soon send this region spiraling out of control
Russia Caucasus 2 Simmering tensions remain, but Beslan massacre did not provoke retaliation, and Putin's hand is remaining steady.
Kashmir 2 Détente between Pakistan's Musharaff and India's Singh has significantly eased tensions, but Pakistan is becoming increasingly restive.
China 2 China is unraveling internally and is mobilizing for eventual war with US and Japan over Taiwan, as Taiwanese opinion shifts towards independence
North Korea 2 Kim Jong-il mobilizing for war at any time against South Korea and Japan, but will wait for China
Financial 3 Exponentially increasing public debt and the end of a corporate earnings streak make a financial crisis likely soon.
Bird flu 3 Mutations have allowed virus to spread more efficiently from Asia to Europe, the Mideast and Africa. A human pandemic is a possibility, though not a certainty.
Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

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