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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Jan-07
Palestinian civil war between Hamas and Fatah now seems inevitable

Web Log - January, 2007

Palestinian civil war between Hamas and Fatah now seems inevitable

Peace talks and ceasefires seem close to being over for good.

Sixty Palestinians have died in on-and-off street fighting in Gaza and the West Bank in January, 29 in the upsurge that began four days ago. The clashes between Hamas and Fatah involved mortars, grenades, bombs and assault rifles.

Both sides accepted an invitation from Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah to mediate peace between the two sides, but no date has yet been set for a meeting. However, for the last few months, there have been several peace meetings and cease-fires, with the meetings separated by a resumption of hostilities.

The Mideast has been deteriorating constantly since Yasser Arafat's death, as I predicted in May, 2003, based on the generational changes that would occur with the disappearance of Arafat.

But it's clear from the news reports that even people close to the action don't understand what's going on.

A former Hamas official, Nashat Aqtash, is quoted as saying, "We are going from bad to worse. I'm not optimistic that the fighting will stop by this weekend. It will take a few weeks more. They are taking the long way, and are fighting to win. Winning means controlling the streets" or losing power altogether.

How can Aqtash believe that things are going to settle down in a few weeks? Things have been getting worse daily for over two years, and the trend isn't going to change now.

Here's a quote from Shlomo Brom, an Israeli analyst and a retired army general: The Gaza muddle is likely to continue because, "The probability of a full-scale war is low, because the two parties understand the consequences and they understand there will be no clear winner."

This is an example of somebody who has no idea what's going on. If people actually followed this philosophy then, for example, the American civil war would never have occurred.

The error that Brom is making is that he believes that the leaders ship of Fatah and Hamas are going to make the decision to go to war with each other. It's the generation of kids who will make that decision, especially in the Gaza strip, which is densely populated with a median age of 15.8, and is run by children who couldn't care less about the "consequences," and who don't believe for a second that there'll be no clear winner.

Another quote, from a Fatah official, Gaza Maher Miqdat, said: "There is a bloody stream in Hamas that insists on provoking the fights because they don't believe in political partnership, and they want to impose an external agenda on the Palestinians." Well, that "bloody stream" is the kids.

Other developments show that the region is headed for an extremely violent civil war.

According to Fatah security sources, thousands of weapons are being amassed by Fatah, in preparation for a battle with Hamas.

In fact, both sides have been amassing rifles, missiles, ammunition and explosives, in preparation for a battle. The weapons have been pouring inth Gaza through tunnels under the border with Egypt.

Ironically, high-quality Kalashnikov assault rifles, which used to be easily available in the Palestinian territories, are now becoming increasingly scarce. Why? Because Fatah and Hamas are hoarding them, so that they're no longer available on the street.

According to unconfirmed intelligence obtained by Debka, Fatah has given Hamas an ultimatum: Either accept their previous "peace agreements," or there will be war, and Fatah is willing to sustain 200 to 500 dead to win total control of Gaza.

In summary: First, the repeated and continuing deterioration of the situation since the death of Yasser Arafat is consistent with the May, 2003, Generational Dynamics prediction that Arafat's disappearance would be part of a generational change that would lead the Mideast into a massive new crisis war (between Jews and Arabs), re-fighting the bloodbath war in 1948-49 following the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. It now appears that the most likely scenario will be a Palestinian civil war leading into a war with the Israelis.

Second, the massive hoarding of weapons by both sides indicates that the civil war cannot be far off. They would not be hoarding weapons if they didn't plan to use them soon.

And third, if the Debka story is true, then it could all start within the next few days.

Here's one final word for people who aren't regular readers of this web site: Lebanon and Iraq are in generational Awakening eras, and so a civil war is impossible in those countries, as I've explained many times. These countries had their last crisis wars in the 1980s, and so their population today is "attracted" (in the sense of a Chaos Theory attractor) away from war. However, the Palestinians, Israel and Jordan are in a generational crisis period, since their last generational crisis war was in the 1940s, and so they're "attracted" toward a new war.

That's why I'm able to predict that Lebanon is NOT close to civil war, while the Palestinians ARE. (29-Jan-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Jan-07 Palestinian civil war between Hamas and Fatah now seems inevitable

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Jan-07
Palestinian civil war between Hamas and Fatah now seems inevitable