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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-Jan-2009
In Gaza and Sri Lanka, war slides into genocide.

Web Log - January, 2009

In Gaza and Sri Lanka, war slides into genocide.

Both wars are getting increasingly meaner and nastier.

On the BBC on Monday, the tenth day of the Gaza war, I heard that Israeli officials are bragging about how careful they are to prevent civilian casualties -- that of the 500 people killed, "only" 100 were civilians.

I also heard that Hamas militants are starving and killing their own people -- Palestinian civilians -- so that they can blame the deaths on Israel.

Neither of these stories was confirmed, but they're both perfectly believable.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, we're seeing a slide toward genocide on both sides.

Recall that, as I've explained in the past, generational theory uses the word "genocide" in a way that differs from the strictly legal definition. The Generational Dynamics definition of "genocide" refers to any action that clearly gives little value to individual life. Generally this means that the society gives much higher priority to scoring a victory in war than it gives to the goal of preserving individual lives, especially civilian lives.

The pattern of genocide in crisis wars (almost) always proceeds as follows: In the early days of the war, both sides respect the safety of civilians. This might go on for decades in a non-crisis war.

But in the crisis period, both sides start crossing lines, becoming more and more aggressive. Things that were unthinkable a few years earlier become commonplace. The values of civilians' lives become less and less significant, and the only goal is to win, at whatever the cost.

As the genocide gets greater and greater, the war generally ends in some explosive genocidal climax that's so horrible that both sides -- winners and losers -- become horrified at what they've done. That sets the stage for the Recovery era, and no more genocidal wars until the survivors of the previous genocidal war are all gone.

As I've done several times, I want to contrast the Gaza war with the 2006 Lebanon war. In that war, the Israelis bombed Lebanese infrastructure, but really did avoid civilian targets. And I don't recall any cases of Hizbollah militants starving and killing their own people (Lebanese) in order to blame it on the Israelis.

That's the difference crisis and non-crisis wars. Lebanon was in a generational Awakening era, and Israel was just beginning to enter its Crisis era. Although Israel was far more aggressive than Hizbollah, both sides did respect civilians to a great extent.

But not so in today's Gaza war. Both sides are becoming increasingly genocidal, heading for an explosive climax.

If a truce is agreed to, then it will be only temporary, and when the war resumes, the genocidal violence will be even greater.

A similar slide is occurring in the civil war in Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka civil war - regions where fighting is in progress <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

Sri Lanka civil war - regions where fighting is in progress (Source: BBC)

As I wrote a couple of weeks ago, the Sri Lanka was appears to be reaching its explosive climax.

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The climax came several steps closer since then, as the Sri Lankan army captured the northern town of Kilinochchi, the administrative headquarters and a highly symbolic center for the Tamil Tiger rebels.

As the Sri Lankan army closes in on the Tamil Tiger army, it is also closing in on 300,000 civilians in the region.

Like the Israelis in Gaza, the Sri Lankans have declared their determination to win, once and for all. Thus, the possibility of large-scale civilian casualties exists, and may be the only way to win.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these two wars are really quite similar, and at similar stages of development.

There's another similarity too: If there are too many civilian casualties in Gaza, then Egypt may intervene militarily on the side of the Palestinians, leading to a much wider war; and if there are too many civilian casualties in Sri Lanka, then India may intervene militarily on the side of the Tamils, leading to a much wider war.

However, the Gaza war is the subject of massive international interest, with envoys from America and Europe coming to visit; but there are no envoys that I know of visiting Sri Lanka. That just shows how much more "important" Gaza is than Sri Lanka.

Nonetheless, both wars are becoming more violent and genocidal, and a wider war in either case would have worldwide repercussions.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Mideast thread and the Geopolitical topics thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (6-Jan-2009) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-Jan-2009 In Gaza and Sri Lanka, war slides into genocide.

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-Jan-2009
In Gaza and Sri Lanka, war slides into genocide.