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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-May-06
Hamas and Fatah armies gearing up for major confrontation in Gaza Strip

Web Log - May, 2006

Hamas and Fatah armies gearing up for major confrontation in Gaza Strip

Egypt and Lebanon are also being increasingly threatened by the escalating violence.

Gaza City was turned into a chaotic battlefield for two hours on Monday, as armies loyal to Hamas and Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah groups, respectively, assaulted each other with assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenades.

This was the worst violence since the two groups -- Hamas and Fatah -- deployed rival armies last week.

Mahmoud Abbas is the democratically-elected head of the Palestinian Authority, and also head of the Fatah militia. Hamas has been named a terrorist group and is the democratically-elected political group in control of the Palestinian parliament. The two groups appear to be headed for a major confrontation, with a civil war inevitable.

Because of the danger, Egypt has been attempting to mediate between Hamas and Abbas, with little success so far. The situation is further complicated by the fact that Hamas receives funding from Muslim Brotherhood, a large terrorist group in Egypt. So a civil war in Gaza could lead to a civil war in Egypt.

Iran is promoting a civil war in Gaza, according to Lebanon's Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. "The Iranians are trying to use some part of Hamas and other Palestinian groups to threaten the Lebanese independence at same time (as threatening) Jordan and Egypt. The Iranians, are trying to use all kinds of groups, including Hamas, to destabilize the area."

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006
W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3
Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2
China 2 North Korea 2
Financial 3 Bird flu 3
Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

Of the eight items on my little conflict risk graphic, two of the eight seem to be accelerating faster and faster toward an eruption. On Monday, the increased violence indicates that Gaza seems to be getting closer and closer to civil war, to engulf Egypt, Lebanon and the entire region, and also on Monday, stock markets around the world continued to tumble. Both situations appear to be heading quickly toward crisis. (23-May-06) Permanent Link
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