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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Jan-2009
Israel begins ground invasion into Gaza

Web Log - January, 2009

Israel begins ground invasion into Gaza

The region appears to be teetering on the edge of wider war on Saturday evening (ET), after thousands of Israeli Defense Force (IDF) troops crossed the border into Gaza, in the second week of this new Mideast war.

During the first week of the war, hundreds of bomb-laden rockets left Gaza launchers and headed targets in Israel. Many of the rockets used newer, more advanced technologies that permitted deeper penetration into Israel -- approximaely one million Israelias are now potential targets.

In response, Israel's air force has been pounding Hamas positions in Gaza. In the process, hundreds of civilians have been killed.

Now, on Saturday, the IDF began its ground invasion into Gaza. According to the IDF statement:

"Second Stage of Operation Cast Lead Begins

A short while ago IDF forces began to implement the second stage of Operation Cast Lead. Land forces have begun to manoeuvre within the Gaza Strip.

The objective of this stage is to destroy the terrorist infrastructure of the Hamas in the area of operation, while taking control of some of rocket launching area used by the Hamas, in order to greatly reduce the quantity of rockets fired at Israel and Israeli civilians."

In particular, the Israelis are saying that they do NOT have the following as goals: They are NOT planning to reoccupy Gaza, and they are NOT trying to get rid of Hamas.

Let's try to answer some of the principal questions:

Will this be a repeat of the 2006 Israeli - Hizbollah war in Lebanon?
A lot of pundits are claiming it will be, and there are some similarities. But that assumption is absurd, since both sides are applying "lessons learned" from the 2006 war. Whatever happens, it won't be the same.
Furthermore, there's a very big difference. In 2006, Israel's enemies were in a generational Awakening era, with little desire for war. Today, Israel's enemies are, like the Israelis, in a generational Crisis era. This alone means that Israel's enemies will fight a very different and much more violent and aggressive war.

Will Hizbollah act in support of the Palestinians by sending its own missiles into Israel?
Once again, a lot of pundits are expecting this, but it seems very unlikely for a couple of reasons:
- Lebanon is in a generational Awakening era, and so the Hizbollah warriors are in no mood to get themselves killed at war. In 2006, they went out each day, shot off some missiles, then returned home to their wives' arms.
- Whatever individual Lebanese people think of Hizbollah versus Israel, one thing that they agree on is that they don't want Israel bombing their infrastructure again, as happened in 2006. (Israeli statements in the current war often remind people of this.)
In Eric Berne's 1960s book, "Games People Play," one of his games was "Let's you and him fight (LYAHF)," which is usually played by a woman who provokes two men to have a fight over her.
Iran played LYAHF in 2006 between Hizbollah and Israel, and they both fell for it, but I don't think they're going to fall for it again, no matter what Hizbollah chief Sheik Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah would like.

How will Israel proceed in Gaza?
This, of course, remains to be seen. Both Israel and Hamas have been preparing for this war for at least a year, so they must both have surprises planned.
On its face, it appears that it should end in a stalemate, like the 2006 war. Gaza City has bunkers all around the cities, often in the basements of homes of civilians. It's hard to see how the Israelis can eliminate the threats from rockets without flattening the entire region.
The Israelis claim that they've thought of this, and they're prepared for it. Hamas claims that Gaza will become a "cemetary" for the Israeli army. How things will turn out we can only guess.
Once again, though, I have to come back to the point that both sides are in generational Crisis eras, which means that neither side is inclined to compromise. Furthermore, the median age of densely populated Gaza is 17, and these hormone-laden kids, running around with guns and rockets, are not easily going to allow any peace agreement, although of course a temporary truce is still possible.

Are any countries likely to intervene militarily?
The countries LEAST likely to intervene are Lebanon and Syria, since those countries are in generational Awakening eras. ( "Growing Sunni-Shia cyberwar in Mideast defeats Ahmadinejad's agenda.")
It's POSSIBLE that there will be some intervention from Jordan or Saudi Arabia, since those countries are in generational Crisis eras. However, that won't happen with the current government, and intervention would only come with some kind of coup.
The MOST likely military intervention, if one occurs at all, is from Egypt.

What about the Palestinians in the West Bank?
Palestinians in the West Bank and Jordan are split. Many of them hate Hamas more than they hate Israel, as I described in June, 2007, in "Hamas' stunning Gaza victory shocks entire Mideast."
If the war escalates in any way, there is a good chance that one component of the expanded war would be a new civil war between the Palestinians in the West Bank (Fatah) and the Palestinians in Hamas.

What's the scenario for a military intervention by Egypt?
Gaza is bordered by three different entities: Israel, the sea and Egypt. Israel is blocking access to Gaza from the sea, and Egypt has closed its border with Gaza.
The most powerful opposition party in Egypt is the Muslim Brotherhood, formed in 1929. Branches of the party exist in a number of countries. Some elements are purely political, and some are terrorists.
Hamas began as a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, and the two groups maintain ties. Many in the Muslim Brotherhood are furious Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak for keeping the border closed, and they claim that Egypt is supporting Israel against the Gazans. Indeed, the Egyptian government greatly fears the power of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and fears a civil war in Egypt.
Hamas appears to be encouraging such an event. Some news bulletins on Saturday reported that Hamas leaders have been urging Gazans to head south to the border with Egypt, with the intention of breaking through the wall to Egypt, and joining with the Muslim Brotherhood.
And so there are two major scenarios for Egyptian involvement in the war:
- Gazans break through the wall with Egypt and link up with the Muslim Brotherhood.
- The Muslim Brotherhood stages a coup, overthrowing the Mubarak government, and starts a civil war that joins with the Gaza war.
Neither of these scenarios is pleasant.

Late Saturday evening (ET), someone posted YouTube video, compiling video from several sources, and providing spotty narration. It contains some interesting material:

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a major Mideast war engulfing the entire region is coming with absolute certainty.

The worldwide financial crisis, throwing millions more people into poverty every week, is destabilizing populations around the world, and may also be doing so in the Mideast.

A lot of what's going on now is against an artificial deadline: The January 20 inauguration of Barack Obama. A number of commentators have mentioned that Israel would like to be finished by then. But the complexity of the operation appears to make this unlikely.

At any rate, this war cannot continue in this form for long. Either a way will be found to get everyone to agree to a temporary truce, or else it will escalate into something much larger within the next few weeks.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Mideast thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (3-Jan-2009) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Jan-2009 Israel begins ground invasion into Gaza

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Jan-2009
Israel begins ground invasion into Gaza