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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Jan-08
Violence continues in Gaza as Israel kills 18 to stop rocket attacks

Web Log - January, 2008

Violence continues in Gaza as Israel kills 18 to stop rocket attacks

President Bush's new Mideast peace initiative has a zero chance of success.

At least 18 people are dead and 50 wounded, resulting from an incursion of Israeli forces into Gaza on Tuesday, in an attempt to destroy a house used to fire rockets at southern Israel.

Senior Hamas leader Mahmoud Zahar, right, looks at the body of his son Hussam, 24, at the morgue <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source:</font>
Senior Hamas leader Mahmoud Zahar, right, looks at the body of his son Hussam, 24, at the morgue (Source:

One of those killed in the exchange of gunfire was the younger son of Hamas leader Mahmoud Zahar, whose oldest son was killed several years ago by Israeli troops. Hamas responded with a heavy barrage of missiles fired at Israeli cities, injuring a mother and two small children. On Wednesday, there was more violence.

This is the bloodiest violence in Gaza since the fighting last June between the two Palestinian factions, Fatah and Hamas. But except for the degree of the fighting, for Gaza it's really a typical day: Gaza rockets strike Israel, Israeli forces strike Hamas, Fatah and Hamas strike each other.

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"Mideast Roadmap" - Will it bring peace?: Generational Dynamics predicts something quite different for the Mideast. (01-May-03)

The first major international prediction that I posted on this web site was on May 1, 2003, just as President Bush was advocating the new "Mideast Roadmap to Peace" that called for a Palestinian state alongside Israel: "Will Mideast roadmap bring peace?" In that article I wrote the following:

"The Mideast is currently replaying the Jewish / Palestinian wars of 1936 to 1949. Why? Because the generation of people who fought in those wars have been retiring or dying.

The new "Mideast Peace Roadmap" calls for a Palestinian state by 2005, side by side with Israel. It provides a series of steps for both sides to follow, mostly having to do with eliminating violence against both Palestinian and Israeli civilians. The plan was sponsored by the United States, Russia, the European Union, and the United Nations.

Unfortunately, the fault lines in the Mideast have never been resolved, and Generational Dynamics predicts that they can be resolved only by another crisis war. In fact, recent polling has shown the rise of a new "Young Guard" generation of militant Palestinians that will accept nothing less than the elimination of Israel.

The last crisis war in the Mideast occurred from 1936 to 1949. That war was indirectly caused by Nazi persecution of Jews in Europe. Because of Nazi persecution, European Jews flooded into Palestine in the 1930s. Hostilities between the Palestinians and the Jews began in 1936, and reached a climax in a major war in 1948-49 following the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The partitioning of Palestine has never been accepted by the Palestinians.

Throughout history, one can point to probably thousands of similar situations, where an artificial boundary is imposed between two peoples, and one or both sides oppose the boundary. Of those thousands of examples, you will probably find few or none that are resolved peacefully.

Generational Dynamics predicts that in such fault line situations, a new crisis war begins when the generation of kids that grew up during the last crisis war all retire or die, at approximately the same time. Growing up during a violent, bloody war turns them into risk-averse adults who guide society throughout their lifetimes, always looking for ways to compromise and contain problems. When they all retire or die, the society loses their collective wisdom, as the generation that grew up after the last crisis war takes charge of society. In the Mideast situation, this is happening today among both the Palestinians and the Israelis.

We are now in the early stages of replaying the extremely violent, bloody wars between the Jews and the Palestinians that took place between them from 1936 to 1949. So far the war has been little more than a series of skirmishes, as it was in the late 1930s. The full-fledged violent, bloody war is awaiting a generational change.

There's an incredible irony going on in the Mideast today, in that the leaders of two opposing sides are, respectively, Ariel Sharon and Yassir Arafat.

These two men hate each other, but they're the ones cooperating with each other (consciously or not) to prevent a major Mideast conflagration. Both of them remember the wars of the 1940s, and neither of them wants to see anything like that happen again. And it won't happen again, as long as both of these men are in charge.

The disappearance of these two men will be part of an overall generational change in the Mideast that will lead to a major conflagration within a few years. It's possible that the disappearance of Arafat alone will trigger a war, just as the election of Lincoln ignited the American Civil War. (It's currently American policy to get rid of Arafat. My response is this: Be careful what you wish for.)

Generational Dynamics predicts that a major new violent, bloody Mideast war must occur, sometime in the next ten years, depending upon when the generational change takes place. There are signs that the generational change is occurring now, and this means that the next bloody, violent Mideast crisis war will take place within 3 or 4 years. There is no "Mideast Peace Roadmap" that has any chance of stopping that."

Nobody else was saying anything like this in 2003, and I was called "crazy" by several people for suggesting it, especially my characterizations of Arafat and Sharon. And yet, except for the overly precise timing in the last paragraph, this is exactly what has happened since then.

When Yasser Arafat died in November 2004, everyone breathed a sigh of relief, because the terrorist leader, the only person preventing the adoption of the Roadmap to Peace, had died. With him gone, the two-state solution could move forward, finally.

The euphoria was reinforced in January 2005, when Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) took bold steps to advance the peace process, including the deployment of Palestinian Authority forces throughout Gaza to stop further attacks on Israel.

Israel and Ariel Sharon did their part by withdrawing from Gaza all Israeli settlements and forces. It was felt that this would bring a new era of peace and stability to Gaza.

However, Mahmoud Abbas immediately started losing control of Gaza, thanks to the increased popularity of Hamas, considered to be a terrorist group by the West.

The hope that the Israeli withdrawal would lead to peace were quickly dashed. By September, it was clear that, with the Israelis gone, Gaza was becoming increasingly violent and unstable.

Nobody had any idea what was going on, except those who read this web site. The only way to understand what's going on in Gaza is through a generational explanation -- and as I've said many times, generational explanations appear to be too abstract for these politicians, journalists, analysts and pundits to understand, because they can't seem to grasp even the simplest and most obvious of them.

It's very easy to understand what's going on in Gaza if you simply start from the fact that the Gaza strip is densely populated and the median age in the Gaza strip is 16 years old. Thus, the Gaza strip is run by a generation of children with guns and missiles and with almost no adult supervision.

To these children in the "Young Guard," Mahmoud Abbas and the "Old Guard" are antideluvian relics with no relevance. Hamas' leaders are two generations younger, but even they're too old for many of the Palestinian children running Gaza.

In December 2005, Hamas started winning municipal elections, ahead of the Fatah group headed by Abbas. The entire Mideast peace process was thrown into turmoil in January, 2006, when Hamas won control of the Palestinian parliament in free elections.

Meanwhile, Gaza violence continued to surge, so that former CIA director James Woolsey said that the Gaza pullout had the worst possible results:

"The approach Israel is preparing to take in the West Bank was tried in Gaza and has failed utterly. The Israeli withdrawal of last year has produced the worst set of results imaginable: a heavy presence by al Qaeda, Hezbollah and even some Iranian Revolutionary Guard units; street fighting between Hamas and Fatah, and now Hamas assassination attempts against Fatah's intelligence chief and Jordan's ambassador; rocket and mortar attacks against nearby towns inside Israel; and a perceived vindication for Hamas, which took credit for the withdrawal. This latter almost certainly contributed substantially to Hamas's victory in the Palestinian elections."

Another blow to the peace process came in May, 2006, when Mideast envoy James Wolfensohn quit in disgust. Wolfensohn had been appointed by the "Quartet" of nations (the U.S., European Union, United Nations and Russia) that put forth the Mideast Roadmap to Peace in 2003 to aid the Jews and Palestinians in their negotiations. He did his best. He helped negotiate several agreements, and as former President of the World Bank, he used his formidable list of contacts to get investors to purchase dozens of greenhouses left behind by Israeli settlers, so that Palestinians could use them right away to get hard currency by growing food for exports.

Here's how one columnist described the situation:

"But Wolfensohn is leaving in apparent disgust with the Israelis, the Palestinians, and the international community, regarding the entire effort to isolate the Hamas government a punishment of the Palestinians, which will only lead to more despair and intransigence on the Palestinian side. Ever the diplomat, he is not stating outright how disgusted he is, but he has made clear that he is furious about broken Israeli promises to take steps to ease conditions for the Palestinians, particularly Gazans, where half the population is now living beneath the World Bank's own measure of poverty -- less than $2 a day. He's no less frustrated by the Palestinians, particularly their inability to rein in the lawlessness that took over in Gaza. Indeed, while some of the greenhouses he purchased were successfully handed over to Palestinians (who are going bankrupt because of Israeli security restrictions that make agricultural exports out of Gaza extremely slow and difficult) others were ruined by in fighting by rival gangs that nobody in Gaza can control. As for the international community, which 'hired' him as an expert in economic development, he is disgusted with its inability to intervene with anything other than isolation of the Hamas government."

Summer 2006 saw Israel's Lebanon war against Hizbollah. The Palestinians didn't participate in the war, but the level of violence in Gaza continued as before.

One of the few studies of the attitudes of young Gazans was done in December 2006, and it highlighted how young Gazans want war with Israel, or at least do not fear it.

For years, until the "surge" started working in mid-2007, the world has been so obsessed with Iraq that the Israeli/Palestinian situation was completely ignored. I complained about that many times on this web site.

There were a few exceptions. In September 2006, Tony Blair committed to solving the Mideast problem. In November, 2006, Jordan's King Abdullah, warned of a potential explosion in Palestine. He repeated his warnings to a joint session of Congress in March, but was treated with scorn by moronic journalists, analysts and politicians, almost all of whom have no idea what's going on in the world.

A civil war between Fatah and Hamas had been building for a number of months and, finally, in June of last year, Hamas defeated Fatah in Gaza, taking control of the entire Gaza strip.

Now, with the Iraq situation settling down, President Bush is committing to solve the Palestinian issue before he leaves office a year from now. I guess politicians have to do stuff like this, even though there isn't a snowflake's chance in hell of succeeding.

When I posted my original predictions on the Mideast on May 1, 2003, I had no way of knowing what was going to happen, and yet everything I predicted is trending true, especially the increasing chaos in the Mideast. I said that a "Young Guard" would arise and would make sure that no peace plan would ever be accepted. As time has passed, that prediction has only trended more and more true.

Since 2003 I've posted almost 900 articles on this web site, most containing specific predictions on subjects related to Darfur, Iraq, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, China, Japan, national and word finances, and so forth. The predictions have been based on Generational Dynamics theory. I've posted trend predictions, which are 100% certain within a (sometimes lengthy) indefinite window of time, and probabilistic predictions, which are usually 70-90% certain within a window of several months.

To date, ALL of the trend predictions are either true or are clearly trending true, and almost all of the probabilistic predictions have come true. None have been proven wrong. This last point is important, because it's easy to get a million predictions right -- just make two million predictions. I've succeeded in getting many predictions right with no predictions wrong.

For years I've been challenging everyone to find a journalist, analyst, pundit, politician or web site with a predictive record that comes anywhere close to the predictive success of this web site, and none has been found. Superstars like Paul Krugman are frequently wrong, but this web site is not.

So what's going to happen in the Mideast in the next year?

Among the Palestinians themselves, there is an enormous and increasing attraction to having a war with the Israelis. However, I've mentioned many times that I haven't seen the signs that it's near -- and by this I mean the kind of language that Israelis and Palestinians say about each other. You never hear mainstream Israelis say, "Those Palestinians are vermin"; they say, "Those Palestinians have to stop militants from sending rockets and missiles into Israeli territory." And you don't hear mainstream Palestinians say, "Those Israelis are disgusting worms"; they say, "Israelis have the end the apartheid that prevents Palestinians from traveling."

In other words, the Palestinians and Israelis still make only behavioral criticisms of one another, rather than hateful personal vilifications. The latter is absolutely essential, because without these personal vilifications, a war leader cannot motivate his people to make the sacrifices necessary to have a genocidal war. In fact, Fatah and Hamas factions have used hate-filled personal vilifications with each other more than with the Israelis.

This could change any day, however, and be triggered by some chaotic event (in the sense of Chaos Theory), an event that cannot be predicted. It might come about because some Israeli action suddenly infuriates the Palestinians. Or it might come about because of interference by Iran or by Egyptian militants in the Muslim Brotherhood.

But the original prediction from May 1, 2003, has not changed. The Palestinian situation has been continually deteriorating into chaos ever since Yasser Arafat died, and will continue to do so. In fact, it's hard to find a day in the last three years where the situation hasn't been worse than the preceding day. (17-Jan-08) Permanent Link
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