Since 2002, we've been using generational analysis to make
specific, hard predictions about worldwide events, politics, culture,
technology, economics and international finance, and with much better
accuracy than private analyst firms. If you're paying big money for
high-priced newsletters from private analyst firms, and all you're
getting is vague "that might be a problem" forecasts, then check this
website regularly to get really useful, accurate forecasts -- FOR
Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity by 2030
How AI is rapidly changing our lives
Obamacare's Healthcare.gov -- The greatest software development disaster in history
Corruption, fraud and criminality in Healthcare.gov and Obamacare
Dysfunction, subversion, sabotage and fraud in software development projects
Information for academic researchers and software development
New Pentagon report outlines China's military buildup
China is preparing for war over Taiwan.
Financial Crisis Inquiry hearings provide 'smoking gun' evidence of widespread criminal fraud
What bankers claimed to have done is mathematically impossible.
Report from TARP Inspector: We're driving off a cliff in a faster car
We're headed for an even larger financial crisis.
"Shadow inventory" of unsold homes continues to grow
Housing prices still have very far to fall.
Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology
The methodology and tools used in generational theory to produce
forecasts and predictions
"Maybe we'll get it right this time" by Tom Mazanec
In this science fiction story, a time traveler tries to prevent the
world war predicted by Generational Dynamics.
The economic outlook for 2009
How we got to where we are today, who's to blame, and where we're
going in 2009.
The gathering storm in the Caucasus
The world is looking more and more like the prelude to World War I.
How Boomers and Generation-Xers brought about the dumbing down of
Information Technology (IT)
Software development has adopted a Java cookbook approach that leads
to project failures. Also: How Digimarc Corp. self-destructed with
management's cookbook programming mentality.
Basics of Generational Dynamics
Generational eras, archetypes, and other elements of generational
Chinese embarrassment and anger grows over Tibet and Olympics
Some notes on the growing mutual xenophobia and paranoia between
China and the West.
List of major Generational Dynamics predictions
These are the major predictions posted on this web site since 2003,
using the generational forecasting methodology.
Cities and towns need to start helping themselves.
Wracked by foreclosures and by the collapsing muncipal bond market,
cities and towns should start planning immediately.
A primer on financial engineering and structured finance
How financial engineers made a fortune creating worthless
The Bubble that Broke the World
How a book written in 1931-32 tells us what's going to happen in
How to compute the "real value" of the stock market.
And some additional speculations about stock market crashes.
Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq
This is exactly the kind of thing that generational theory predicts.
System Dynamics and the Failure of Macroeconomics Theory
Mainstream macroeconomic theory, invented by Maynard Keynes in the
1930s, has failed to predict or explain anything that's happened
since the bubble started, including the bubble itself. We need a new
"Dynamic Macroeconomics" theory.
President George Bush talks about a "Third Awakening," but
he has his history wrong
It was America's 1960s Awakening that united Protestants, Catholics
and Jews, and cemented our support for Israel.
Washington becomes hysterical again over an Iraqi 'civil war'
A civil war in Iraq is impossible, as I've said many times, because
only one generation has passed since the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s.
Here's some additional historical information.
Israel's war against Hizbollah and Lebanon forces Muslims to
The war is part of a larger Shi'ite-Sunni struggle, and a stopgap
ceasefire will create a worsening environment leading to a much more
chaotic situation within a few months
A beautiful mind? The world is paralyzed into a "Nash
Today, 61 years after the end of World War II, the countries of the
world are struggling to maintain a status quo that can't last
too much longer.
Why aren't college students protesting against the Iraq war?
Young students are criticized for being indifferent to politics,
while "Grannies Against the War" is truly bizarre.
Speculations about a stock market panic and crash
Will there be a stock market panic next week, next month, or next
year, and will it lead to a crash? We speculate on some possibilities.
Ariel Sharon's political "earthquake"
in Israel signals change in direction for entire Mideast
His aggressive program that began with the barrier and the Gaza
pullout is now likely to founder.
Ben S. Bernanke: The man without agony
Bernanke and Greenspan are as different as night and day, despite
what the pundits say.
Japanese and Chinese relations are deteriorating sharply
Between China's search for oil and Koizumi's shrine visit,
the level of anger and suspicion is rising fast.
Robert Pape's "Dying to Win" sheds light on
Robert Pape's database of every suicide bombing and attack
around the world from 1980-2003 -- 315 attacks in all -- provides
valuable insight into the causes of suicide terrorism, and confirms
the Generational Dynamics' conclusions about crisis wars.
The 11% Solution: An article in Barron's says
the stock market is very overvalued
New research by analyst Adam Barth finds that average earnings over
any 20-year period are surprisingly constant.
The Great Depression and Dow Jones Industrial Average
Scrolling through the DJIA through the Great Depression and later
gives a feeling as to what was happening, and how it compares to
what's happening today.
French rejection of EU Constitution signals decline
of entire European Union project
Exit polls from Sunday's French EU Constitution vote show a clear
generational split that analysts aren't noticing.
Increasing Muslim violence in Uzbekistan raises fears
of destabilizing Asia
After pro-Russian leaders have been replaced by Western-leaning ones
in Georgia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, the Kremlin is watching the violence
in Uzbekistan nervously, and Washington is watching the Kremlin.
Mathematician solves problem puzzling historians for centuries
Does history repeat itself? Historians have tried and failed to
find provable patterns in history, but a mathematician has now
solved the problem that's stumped the historians for centuries.
Fed and Alan Greenspan signal aggressive plans to
increase interest rates
This means trouble for people in debt and for the stock market, but it
also hints that the Fed plans to keep the dollar strong through
North Korea continues mobilization for nuclear war
Blaming "hostile" U.S. policies, North Korea pulls out of nuclear
non-proliferation talks, claiming that it already has nuclear weapons.
This is a classic sequence of events that precedes a pre-emptive war.
Alan Greenspan warns that global economic dangers
are without historical precedent
In a speech on Friday, Greenspan buried a major change of position in
a speech admitting that his assumptions about the economy for the
last decade were wrong.
China appears to be approaching a major civil war
Unrest is spreading, and economic disparities make China a textbook
case for a massive civil war in the making
A generational interpretation of Charles Dickens' "A Christmas
Written in 1843, this classic novel depicts a clear generational
Ukraine headed for a confrontation with Putin
Ukraine is headed for trouble as it moves to reverse the 20-Nov
The six most dangerous regions in the world today.:
There are six regions that could lead the world into a new world war.
NOTE: This article also contains a lengthy summary of the
Generational Dynamics theory and Forecasting Methodology.
Election results show a major cultural and political restructuring
in the making.:
In the long run, George Bush's victory is less important than the
reasons why people voted for him.
Unrealistic expectations worldwide about the American election are
setting the stage for hostile reactions next year:
Will "something big" happen to America in 2005?
Ten-nation survey says that non-Americans worldwide
overwhelmingly favor Kerry over Bush:
However, Russia and Israel support Bush; so do Iran's mullahs
Can we withdraw from Iraq in 2005?:
Suddenly the Washington buzz is that whoever wins - Bush or Kerry -
will begin to withdraw American troops from Iraq. We look at two
historical examples to predict scenarios.
Yield curves are flattening as Federal Reserve
raises short term interest rates
Long-term interest rates are falling while short-term interest rates
are rising, a sign of possible trouble ahead.
On September 11, terrorism around the world is increasing
Infuriated and anxious people around the world are demanding military
actions to halt or even avenge terrorism
Does history favor George Bush or John Kerry?:
Long-term historical trends favor Bush, but Kerry may win anyway
because Bush is in danger of being 'Hooverized'
Southeast Asian nations are forced to pick sides in the
conflict between China and Taiwan:
Singapore will support China and Australia will support Taiwan in a
conflict between China and Taiwan.
Today's slow-motion genocide in Darfur recalls the lightning quick
genocide in Rwanda in 1994:
Why do these things always seem to happen in Africa? Understanding
Africa's geography explains why.
Oil prices spiking on supply fears:
There is increasing concern that Saudi Arabia's oil production is
peaking, and that prices will rise significantly farther.
Arab views worldwide are becoming increasingly hostile
Arab view of America is down to about 10% favorable, 90% unfavorable.
Kerry establishes an electoral lead going into the
He's tuned his message to what I suggested last year. Do you suppose
he read my web site?
Generational crisis for Arafat as thousands take to
streets in revolt in Gaza:
Arafat's offices burned down, as he seeks a way to prevent civil war
among Palestinian factions
"I, Robot" is science fiction, but intelligent
computers will soon be science fact.:
When will it dawn on the politicians and the general public that
this changes everything?
Alan Greenspan's Mixed Emotions:
More and more top analysts are getting concerned about extremely high
debt levels and stock valuations.
Operation Summer Pulse 04:
Taiwan is moving inexorably towards independence, and America is
supporting it, while China is freaking out over it. Will this lead
to an inevitable war over Taiwan?
Green Revolution vs Malthus Effect:
Despite the "Green Revolution," world population continues to grow
faster than food production. This is one of the fundamental reasons
why wars occur.
Beheadings part of increasing conflict level
The level of conflict is increasing throughout the Mideast, from Gaza
to Pakistan, from Saudi Arabia to Uzbekistan.
Stock market increasingly volatile:
Sharp plunges in international stock markets portend periods of
increasingly high volatility.
Iraq Today vs 1960s America (Revised):
They have much in common: Bombings, assassinations, student
demonstrations, violent riots, calls for insurrection and civil
war and harsh rhetoric. That's much more than a coincidence.
Taiwan's Wild Election Battle:
Taiwan's election battle is even wilder and more raucous than the
Bush-Gore election battle in 2000. Its uncertain outcome is causing
What Iraqi Civil War?:
Early in 2003, I predicted that there would be no popular uprising
against the Americans, and that there would be no civil war. After
the overthrow of Saddam, I said that an Iraqi civil war was
impossible. Despite the
constant near-hysteria of the politicians, journalists and
high-priced analysts, I've been right so far. Here's why.
Palestinian Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, spiritual leader of
the Hamas militia group, killed in Israeli air strike:
Generational Dynamics says that this brings Mideast much closer to
Madrid terrorist bombings are having unexpected
The 3/11 bombings may have the same effect on Europeans that the 9/11
attacks had on Americans.
Haiti: Heading for possible rebellion and anarchy:
A historical analysis of a potential crisis.
Anti-Shi'ite Terror Attacks in Iraq, Pakistan:
So far, Sunni and Shi'ite leaders in Iraq aren't taking the bait.
The New Sexual Revolution:
The pendulum is swinging back.
Alan Greenspan's Mea Culpa:
Alan Greenspan has put his legacy into serious danger
Georgia (Asia) on the brink of civil war:
Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze says that the country is on
the verge of civil war. This could be the next war in the "clash of
civilizations" between Islam and Christianity.
"Ping-Pong Terrorism" in Mideast leading
inevitably to major regional war:
Even non-violent acts are seen as terrorism by the other side, and the
intensity of the mutual attacks is constantly increasing.
Schwarzenegger's victory could spell trouble for
It also signals the end of the societal culture / gender wars.
What if Al Gore were President?:
Both Republicans and Democrats are making important strategic errors
in the battle for the White House in 2004. Here's what they
SHOULD be saying.
Is China unraveling?:
Should you invest in the world's fastest growing economy?
Analysts say yes, but
there are ominous generational signs of financial and social
instability in China.
Hamas Announces End of Cease-Fire:
Can Ariel Sharon and Yasser Arafat once more
fend off a large regional war?
Terrorist suicide bombings in Iraq may backfire
During an awakening period, terrorist acts cause masses of people to
shrink from more violence.
Riots in Iran:
Will there be a violent overthrow of the Iranian Mullahs?
Generational Dynamics says 'No.'
Dow Passes 9000 / Mideast Peace Plan Takes Off:
This is a big test for Generational Dynamics, which predicts that
the good news won't last.
"Mideast Roadmap" - Will it bring peace?:
Generational Dynamics predicts something quite different for the
France and Germany:
Why are they becoming anti-American?
The Anti-War Movement:
Will it gain traction?
North and South Korea:
Will the North Koreans start a nuclear war?
Turkey has been rebuffing America. What are they up to?
Is Japan's economy finally near collapse?
Will stocks rise or fall in 2004?
Latest Dow Jones Industrial Average
Articles from this web site may be copied to other web sites,
provided that authorship is acknowledged and provided that a link is
included back to the article on this web site. - John J.
Informal comments on current news and trends.
|Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 19-Oct-2014
25-Feb-17 World View -- Border Adjustment Tax versus the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Law:
Washington tax reform plans may include a 'Border Adjustment Tax'... (25-Feb-2017)
24-Feb-17 World View -- Malaysia - N. Korea relations turn toxic over assassination of Kim Jong-un's half brother:
BBC reporter Mike Embley is completely full of crap... (24-Feb-2017)
23-Feb-17 World View -- China preparing to install long-range missiles in South China Sea:
China's ASEAN neighbors express increasing anxiety over China's illegal militarization... (23-Feb-2017)
22-Feb-17 World View -- China clamps down on Uighurs in Xinjiang province:
China commands Xinjiang Uighurs to install tracking devices in all cars... (22-Feb-2017)
21-Feb-17 World View -- Pakistan artillery pounds terrorist 'safe havens' in Afghanistan:
Pakistan blames Afghanistan after a week of multiple terror attacks... (21-Feb-2017)
20-Feb-17 World View -- US-backed Iraqi army launches major new offensive in western Mosul:
US aircraft carrier renews challenge to China in the South China Sea... (20-Feb-2017)
19-Feb-17 World View -- China announces it will block imports of North Korea's coal:
Assassination of Kim Jong-un's half-brother in Malaysia threatens relations with China and North Korea... (19-Feb-2017)
18-Feb-17 World View -- Britain's Tony Blair calls for the people 'to rise up' and reverse Brexit:
Ireland demands a 'soft border,' while Scotland contemplates independence... (18-Feb-2017)
17-Feb-17 World View -- Pakistan promises to avenge 'each drop of blood' after multiple terror attacks:
Pakistan again in shock as Sufi shrine bombing is fifth terror attack in a week... (17-Feb-2017)
16-Feb-17 World View -- Obamacare and Britain's NHS continue in financial 'death spiral':
Obamacare follows Nixon's wage-price controls in financial 'death spiral'... (16-Feb-2017)
15-Feb-17 World View -- Cameroon shuts down internet for English-speakers protesting French-speakers:
Brief generational history of Cameroon... (15-Feb-2017)
14-Feb-17 World View -- America's likely response to N. Korean test: THAAD, Aegis missile defense systems:
China's foreign policy becomes complicated by North Korean test... (14-Feb-2017)
13-Feb-17 World View -- After Syria's so-called ceasefire, tensions grow over the future of Bashar al-Assad:
Hezbollah keeps on fighting, but says it will honor Syria ceasefire... (13-Feb-2017)
12-Feb-17 World View -- Iraq: Supporters of al-Sadr and al-Maliki turn again to violence in Baghdad:
Iraq's army poised to begin Battle of Mosul in the west... (12-Feb-2017)
11-Feb-17 World View -- Grexit risk: Greece may refuse a new round of austerity:
Greece will evacuate 75,000 people in Thessaloniki to defuse WW II bomb... (11-Feb-2017)
10-Feb-17 World View -- Kenya's High Court blocks attempt to close Dadaab refugee camp:
Closure of Dadaab demanded after 2015 Garissa University attack in Kenya... (10-Feb-2017)
9-Feb-17 World View -- Mainstream media frets over Steve Bannon, the Fourth Turning, and Donald Trump:
China-Philippines détente unravels over Scarborough Shoal... (9-Feb-2017)
8-Feb-17 World View -- Investigation reveals depraved new atrocities by Syria's Bashar al-Assad:
Epicenter of Syrian conflict moves from Aleppo to Idlib and al-Bab... (8-Feb-2017)
7-Feb-17 World View -- Tensions rise between China and Trump administration:
China sails warships near Japan's Senkaku Islands... (7-Feb-2017)
6-Feb-17 World View -- Trump will honor Australia refugee deal, despite calling it 'worst deal ever':
Australian politics in turmoil over refugee deal... (6-Feb-2017)
5-Feb-17 World View -- Egypt accused of 'dirty deal' to sabotage an Ethiopian dam project:
Egypt's air force accused of bombing rebel targets in South Sudan... (5-Feb-2017)
4-Feb-17 World View -- Devastating UN report on Burma shows scale of ghastly atrocities by Buddhists targeting Muslim Rohingyas:
Generational Dynamics interpretation of Burma (Myanmar) atrocities... (4-Feb-2017)
3-Feb-17 World View -- Hundreds of thousands of people protest left-wing corruption in Romania:
Massive Romanian protests linked to 1989 ouster of violent dictator... (3-Feb-2017)
2-Feb-17 World View -- Israel expels residents of Amona West Bank settlement, testing rule of law in Israel:
Israel approves large settlement -- first new settlement in West Bank in decades... (2-Feb-2017)
1-Feb-17 World View -- New fighting between Ukraine and Russia flares up in eastern Ukraine:
Thousands of US troops in Poland conduct joint drills with Polish troops... (1-Feb-2017)
31-Jan-17 World View -- US will upgrade Philippines military bases, despite Duterte's threats:
Philippines war on drugs in chaos after murder of S. Korean businessman... (31-Jan-2017)
30-Jan-17 World View -- Ethnic cleansing of Myanmar's Rohingyas threatens regional stability:
Trying to keep up in a world in a state of hysteria... (30-Jan-2017)
29-Jan-17 World View -- Protests grow over Trump's executive order to restrict immigration:
Iran promises retaliation against Americans... (29-Jan-2017)
28-Jan-17 World View -- Furious Turkey threatens migrant deal over Greece's failure to extradite:
Desperate EU officials still try to shut down Mediterranean migration route... (28-Jan-2017)
27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect and attack America:
Centuries-old Russia-China border dispute could lead to another war... (27-Jan-2017)
26-Jan-17 World View -- Dow surges past 20,000, further expanding dangerous Wall Street bubble:
China desperately imposes controls on capital outflows... (26-Jan-2017)
25-Jan-17 World View -- Russia, Iran, Turkey sign farcical Syria peace agreement:
Syria peace conference sees a return to 'proximity talks'... (25-Jan-2017)
24-Jan-17 World View -- Russia will build major naval base in Tartus Syria:
Trump may permit US military cooperation with Russia in Syria... (24-Jan-2017)
23-Jan-17 World View -- Explosive Israeli policy decisions reportedly put on hold at Trump's request:
Israel prepares for the Palestinian 'Oslo Generation'... (23-Jan-2017)
22-Jan-17 World View -- India begins deploying its 'Cold Start' military strategy against Pakistan:
Russia and India declare their love for each other... (22-Jan-2017)
21-Jan-17 World View -- President Trump's inauguration speech links today's America to the 1930s:
The Gambia's leader steps down, after his army chief deserts him... (21-Jan-2017)
20-Jan-17 World View -- Senegal's troops enter The Gambia to force the ruler to step down:
Why you have to say 'The Gambia', rather than just 'Gambia'... (20-Jan-2017)
19-Jan-17 World View -- European anger and British self-delusion follow Brexit plan speech:
Brexit becomes more real after Theresa May's speech... (19-Jan-2017)
18-Jan-17 World View -- The Gambia's leader, refusing to step down, declares state of emergency:
Burundi's leader, refusing to step down, withdraws peacekeeping troops fighting al-Shabaab in Somalia... (18-Jan-2017)
17-Jan-17 World View -- European leaders shocked and surprised at Trump's foreign policy comments:
China threatens to 'take off the gloves' with Donald Trump... (17-Jan-2017)
16-Jan-17 World View -- With Libya in chaos, migrant deal with Italy collapses:
Over 100 migrants drown in Mediterranean after their dinghy sinks... (16-Jan-2017)
15-Jan-17 World View -- Poland welcomes biggest deployment of American tanks and troops in decades:
US troop deployment in Poland angers Russia... (15-Jan-2017)
14-Jan-17 World View -- Syria says that Israel bombed al-Mazzeh military airport near Damascus:
Israel's motive was probably to prevent weapons from reaching Hezbollah... (14-Jan-2017)
13-Jan-17 World View -- Peace conference to reunite Cyprus adjourns without a deal:
History of Cyprus suggests that there is little hope for permanent reunification... (13-Jan-2017)
12-Jan-17 World View -- Pakistan: Four secular anti-military activists vanish over the weekend:
Pakistan's army accused of dumping over 1,000 bodies in Balochistan... (12-Jan-2017)
11-Jan-17 World View -- China threatens Trump with 'revenge' over one-China policy:
Taiwan president Tsai Ing-Wen meets with Senator Cruz in Texas... (11-Jan-2017)
10-Jan-17 World View -- Thousands of migrants trapped in deep freeze temperatures in Greece and Balkans:
European Commission resettlement plan appears to be a disaster... (10-Jan-2017)
9-Jan-17 World View -- Iran's 'moderate pragmatist' Hashemi Rafsanjani dies at age 82:
Is Rafsanjani's death a victory for Iran's hardliners?... (9-Jan-2017)
8-Jan-17 World View -- Violent protests in Sri Lanka over China's takeover of Hambantota seaport:
Britain's hospitals run out of beds as Red Cross declares NHS in 'humanitarian crisis'... (8-Jan-2017)
7-Jan-17 World View -- The Gambia's president prepares for war with Senegal on January 19:
Congo's president Joseph Kabila refuses to step down after losing election... (7-Jan-2017)
6-Jan-17 World View -- New armed militia emerges in Central African Republic: Return, Reclamation, Rehabilitation (3R):
Central African Republic crisis war continues to spin out of control... (6-Jan-2017)
5-Jan-17 World View -- Israel polarized over conviction of soldier for manslaughter:
Comparison to Pakistan murder of Salman Taseer... (5-Jan-2017)
4-Jan-17 World View -- Pakistan's bizarre blasphemy laws lead to death threats for son of slain governor:
Pakistan's Imran Khan forced to apologize after being accused of blasphemy... (4-Jan-2017)
3-Jan-17 World View -- Syrian opposition groups suspend negotiations of peace talks:
Video emerges from Burma (Myanmar) showing police beating Rohingya Muslims... (3-Jan-2017)
2-Jan-17 World View -- Istanbul Turkey New Year's terror attack compared to Paris and Orlando attacks:
Terror attacks expose deep divisions in Turkey's society... (2-Jan-2017)
1-Jan-17 World View -- Taiwan's president responds to military threats from China:
Did Taiwan's president say that Taiwan is 'an independent, sovereign country'?... (1-Jan-2017)
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June 4, 2011, presentation:
This Generational Dynamics presentation was given in 2011 at Fort Devens in Massachusetts.
Click here for presentation slides
April 20, 2004, presentation:
This Generational Dynamics presentation was given in 2004 at MIT in Cambridge, Mass.
Click here for presentation slides
Reviews of books on current events and history
About Generational Dynamics, About John J. Xenakis
Discussion and Comments
Crisis wars graphic:
Graphic showing crisis war timelines for Western Europe and for Orthodox Christianity vs Muslim Civilizations
Archived items removed from the site home page.
This is an experiment - Using the Generational Dynamics methodology
to provide up-to-date information on investment opportunities around
International Investment Advisories |
India: Hooray for Bollywood!:
Investment opportunities in India range from high-tech
pharmaceuticals to Spiderman.
India: Socially beneficial profits from "Untouchable" investments:
For those interested in socially beneficial investments in India, the
lot of India's Dalits provides an ideal investment target -- high-risk
but with the possibility of high returns because of the market size.
Trading with Iran: Not exactly a magic carpet ride:
Surprise! It turns out that being a member of the "Axis of Evil"
doesn't help investors.
A special feature of the experimental International Investment Advisories, containing information not available elsewhere, is the Conflict Index, a medium-range (1-2 years) and long-range (2-10 years) forecast of the likely level of local conflict, from riots and demonstrations to all out insurrection and civil war.
Cover design by Libby Chase, http://www.libbysgallery.com.
NY Skyline & Statue of Liberty clip art images
provided by http://budgetstockphoto.com.