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China's strategy continues to suffer geopolitical reverses
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Russia's government in Moscow has been caught by surprise by large anti-government protests in Khabarovsk, eight time zones away in Russia's Far East.
Protests have been growing for several weeks, and on Saturday, tens of thousands of people in Khabarovsk took part in protest marches. Protests have also spread to other cities. They were protesting the arrest, on July 9, of Sergei Furgal, the democratically elected governor, who was "kidnapped" back to Moscow, over 6,000 km away. Furgal was arrested on charges that he was involved in three murders in the early 2000s. The protesters were demanding that if Furgal was going to be tried, then the trial must take place in Khabarovsk, not 6,000 km away in Moscow.
Furgal was unexpectedly elected governor of the Khabarovsk Region in September 2018, beating the candidate who had been hand-picked by Vladimir Putin. Furgal has remained a popular figure ever since, and in 2019, his Liberal Democratic party won a landslide victory. After Furgal's arrest, and before any trial, Furgal was fired as governor, and Putin replaced him with a federal politician Mikhail Degtyaryov as acting governor to the region. Degtyaryov is from the same party as Furgal, but presumably he will do as he's told by Putin.
Theoretically, Russia is a functioning democracy, but as a practical matter, the candidates selected by Putin always win, and are expected to do as they're told when in office. Furgal did not do as he was told, and his removal and replacement by Putin is seen not only as a necessary step to bring the Khabarovsk Region under control, but also as a warning to any other governor who might be thinking of straying from the official line.
Nonetheless, the size of the anti-government protests has been a shock to the Kremlin, with an estimated 30,000 protesters marching to the Khabarovsk capital building on Saturday.
At the march, demonstrators chanted slogans like "Disgrace!", "Fair trial in Khabarovsk!", “As long as we are united, we are invincible!” and “Freedom for Furgal!” Many demanded President Putin resign because local people had lost trust in him.
The new governor, Degtyaryov, has already offended people by refusing to meet with local citizens, saying that he won't meet with those who come "yelling under my windows."
Putin has always responded harshly to protests, but this one caught him by surprise. If the protests continue, we can expect violence by the security forces in the coming weeks.
Khabarovsk is the capital city and largest city of the Khabarovsk Krai (administrative region), with a population of 600,000, including thousands of Chinese migrants that have crossed over the Amur River from China.
Many Chinese claim that Khabarovsk really belongs to China. They point to Hong Kong, which became a British colony in 1842 because of the Opium Wars and what the Chinese call an "unfair treaty." Hong Kong was handed back to China in 1997. Many in Chinese social media claim that Khabarovsk became part of Russia because of another "unfair treaty," the May 1858 Treaty of Aigun between Russia and China that settled the boundary between the two countries, when China was weakened by the Taiping Rebellion. The Chinese are claiming that Russia should hand Khabarovsk back to China, just as Hong Kong was handed back to China. However, the region demanded by China also contains Vladivostok, which is the location of Russia's Pacific military fleet, so there is little chance that Russia would agree to any such thing without a major war. Still, China and Russia fought a border war in the 1960s, so there may be a new war at some point.
However, it won't be soon. Russia and China currently have a "marriage of convenience," where they pretend to love each other. They need each other's support because they're both criminal outlaws, with China illegally annexing the South China Sea and Russia illegally annexing eastern Ukraine and Crimea.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) itself has been suffering numerous serious reverses lately. The Trump administration's closing of China's Houston consulate is a major blow to the Chinese military's espionage program. China is receiving worldwide condemnation for many of its policies that were previously ignored, or even supported by the credulous Western mainstream press -- purposely seeding hundreds of countries with the Wuhan Coronavirus, causing worldwide economic devastation, arresting, torturing and enslaving millions of Muslim Uighurs, imposing dictatorial policies on Hong Kong through its new security law.
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is running into problems because China's infrastructure agreements with numerous countries, especially in Africa, imposed huge debt requirements, thanks to China's "debt trap diplomacy," and now because the Wuhan Coronavirus has shut down many economies, many countries can no longer make the debt repayments.
What many people don't realize is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has no strategy. They're planning to annex part of India, annex part of Vietnam, annex Russia's Far East, launch a war of revenge against Japan, and annex Taiwan. But what's the strategy? Even if China wins all those wars (and it will probably lose all of them), then those gains will disappear within two generations.
At the end of World War II, the Soviet Union had won control of numerous countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. By 1991, Russia had lost control of all of those countries. The same would happen with China. So what's China strategy after it wins all those wars? If there is one, I'm not aware of it.
The CCP thugs today are paranoid and desperate, and highly emotional. What do we do now? Attack Taiwan? Attack India? Sign up another BRI country? They don't know what to do next, so they might do anything. Sooner or later that will lead to war.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/
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(26-Jul-2020)
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Lebanon: A country in free fall
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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For many years, I used to write an article every day, 365/366 days per year, and cross-posted them on Brietbart. However, in the last couple of years, I no longer have the energy to do that. One reason is that I was royally screwed by the a--holes at Breitbart, and the other reason is that, even though I have thousands of regular readers, nobody is willing to pay me a regular salary, and most of them consider the articles equivalent to a comic strip that they enjoy reading, as long as it's free.
Nonetheless, there's so much nonsense, ignorance and stupidity, in the mainstream media, especially about international events. Even the BBC is turning into a left-wing sewer like CNN, probably because the BBC receives a lot of money from PBS and they have to do as they're told. And I've been told by many people that they depend on my web site, which apparently the only web site in the world with honest, unbiased, non-ideological descriptions of what's going on in the world.
The result is that I actually feel guilty about not doing more. So the purpose of this article is to briefly summarize some major international stories that are very important, but which nobody knows anything about. It's not as good as three major articles on three consecutive days, but it's almost as good.
There's a really interesting story about Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which has been under construction since 2011. I've written several stories about it while it was under construction, and about the controversy: Once the dam has been constructed, it has to be filled with water from the Blue Nile, and the region to be filled is so enormous that it will take about seven years to fill the dam. However, the Blue Nile supplies most of Sudan's water, and about 90% of Egypt's water. Both Egypt and Sudan are already short of water, and there are drought seasons that are worse. So this seven-year filling period is potentially a disaster to Sudan and Egypt. There have been years of arguments and negotiations, to no avail.
So now, in July 2020, the time has come for Ethiopia to start filling the dam. Nothing much has happened yet, but if Egypt and Sudan suffer from lack of water, there could well be a war.
Azerbaijan and Armenia have been arguing for years about an Armenia-governed enclave called Nagorno-Karabakh in the middle of Azerbaijan. There was no problem when both countries were part of the Soviet Union, but they had a bloody war after the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991. There have been occasional clashes, most recently in 2016. But in the last week, major fighting has begun, and people in Azerbaijan have been marching on the capitol building in Azerbaijan's capital city Baku, demanding that Azerbaijan declare war on Armenia and force Armenia to withdraw from Nagorno-Karabakh.
Generally speaking, Azerbaijan is a Turkic country aligned with Turkey, and Armenia is an Eastern Orthodox (Armenian Apostolic) country aligned with Russia. Furthermore, memories of the massacre of Armenians in Turkey in 1916 ("Armenian genocide") are being revived. Turkey has vowed to defend Azerbaijan, and Russia has offered to mediate. I would say that this situation could lead to a regional war, but there's already a small regional war going on. The war could expand into a war between Turkey and Russia, two countries that are also at odds with each other in Syria and Libya.
The country Lebanon is on the verge of collapse. Nearly 50% of the population are living in poverty, and that was before the Wuhan Coronavirus crisis began, which is making things much worse. Lebanon has two problems. The Iran-controlled terrorist group Hezbollah runs the country, but is receiving less money from its puppetmaster Iran, thanks to US sanctions. And second, there is massive government corruption, stemming from its "confessional system of government," where power is divided based on sectarian affiliation or confession (Sunni, Shia, Christian), as I've described in detail in the past. The confessional form of government has worked fairly well in resolving disputes in both Iraq and Lebanon, but it gives each sectarian group unrestricted access to the funds of the portions of government it controls, leading to a situation where government officials take all the money for themselves, and let the people starve and freeze in darkness. Now, for the first time, there is massive anger growing against Hezbollah in both Lebanon and Iraq, and Lebanon's government may collapse completely.
The country is in free fall. The currency has collapsed. The unemployment rate is over 30%. A tainted fuel oil scandal revealed enormous corruption -- bribes, forged documents, and falsified tests. Protesters have blocked roads with burning tires and are demanding that the entire government resign. A crisis seems imminent.
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(17-Jul-2020)
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Iran's Chabahar Port deal with India is at risk
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
A leaked agreement being negotiated by China and Iran has little chance of being implemented, but if it were, it would have significance going back through centuries of Iran's history. China would invest $400 billion over a 25 year period in infrastructure and military projects in Iran, in return for discounts on Iranian oil.
The agreement is very much in the pattern of China's Belt and Road (BRI) agreements with numerous countries, using "debt trap diplomacy." The typical pattern is that China lends an enormous sum of money to a country, and the country then uses that money to pay Chinese companies for parts and services, and then pays salaries of thousands of Chinese workers that will develop the projects. Once the target company fails to make its debt repayments, China seizes control of the country's strategic assets. China has used these secret agreements to acquire and control ports and other strategic assets in Sri Lanka, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ghana, Zambia, Kenya -- through its "debt trap diplomacy." Several other countries, including Pakistan and the Maldives, are at risk.
The draft agreement is secret, but the terms that are leaked look very similar to BRI agreements with other countries. According to the NY Times, which obtained the leaked agreement, it cites almost 100 projects, including airports, high-speed railways and subways. China would develop free-trade zones in Maku, in northwestern Iran, and in Abadan, where the Shatt al-Arab river flows into the Persian Gulf, and on the gulf island Qeshm. The agreement also includes proposals for China to build the infrastructure for a 5G telecommunications network, to offer the new Chinese Global Positioning System, Beidou, and to help Iran's government control the internet in the same way that China does. China will have access to Iran's military airbases.
A secretive element relates to the military dimension of the agreement, whereby China will have 5,000 members of its security forces present on the ground in Iran. Once again, this is a typical requirement. China lends money to Iran, Iran uses the money for Chinese parts and services, and to pay the salary of Chinese workers, the Chinese workers send the money back to their families in China. So China gets the money back, and Iran still has to repay the loan, so that Iran essentially has to repay the loan twice.
China will be investing nearly $400 billion in Iran’s oil, gas and petrochemicals industries in the first five years of the agreement. In return, China will get priority to bid on any new project in Iran that is linked to these sectors. China will also get a 12 percent discount and it can delay payments by up to two years. In addition, China will essentially be able to pay in any currency it desires. In total, China will receive discounts of nearly 32 percent.
The "capitulatory system" of the Middle East was developed starting in the 1500s during the rise of the Ottoman empire (Turkey). A capitulation was an agreement between two countries to permit one country to grant various concessions to another country. Under this system, the French were granted by the Ottomans to establish trading posts and consular missions in Syria and Egypt. Later, agreements with England and other Europeans provided for imports of steel, lead, tin, gold and silver into Turkey.
In the 1800s, the capitulatory system reached Persia (Iran). After Persia's humiliating military losses to the Russians and English, Persia was forced to accept concessions as "reparations." Economic concessions fell into three major categories: public utilities, financial enterprises, and exploration for and exploitation of natural resources. I described this capitulatory system in detail in my 2018 book, "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East."
After decades of these concessions, where the Russians and English took advantage of the Iranians, and the Iranian politicians and clerics were enriched through corruption, there was a backlash. For example, the tobacco concession granted a monopoly on both the purchase and sale of tobacco within Persia to an English company for a period of fifty years, and during this period Iran's rulers received enormous kickbacks, while Iran's tobacco merchants suffered. Huge anti-government protests led to the anti-government Tobacco Revolt (1890-92).
In the political debate of that time, a merchant wrote:
"By what laws does the government sell our national rights to foreign racketeers? These rights, according to both the principles of Islam and traditional laws of Iran, belong to the people of our country. These rights are the means of our livelihood. The government, however, barters the Moslem property to the unbelievers. By what law? Have the people of Iran died that the government is auctioning away their inheritance?"
Today, the proposed Iran-China draft agreement is receiving sharp criticism that sounds very similar to the above criticism of the 1890 tobacco concession. Some lawmakers are saying that it feeds China's 'colonialist greed." Former President Mahmood Ahmadinejad warned that the Iran-China agreement was with "a foreign country" was being discussed "away from the eyes of the Iranian nation." Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah of Iran, blasted the "shameful, 25-year treaty with China that plunders our natural resources and places foreign soldiers on our soil."
The Tobacco Revolt was a major event in Iranian history, with implications far beyond the income of tobacco merchants. The tobacco concession was revoked, but the anti-government protests continued. In 1905 there were protests over the price of sugar and the sugar merchants. This led to a massive generational crisis civil war known as the Constitutional Revolution, whose purpose was, among other things, to demand adoption of a constitution that would guarantee that no leader was above the law, and would control the powers of the Shah, and not allow him to grant concessions to other countries without the approval of the Majlis (parliament).
What's obvious here is that today's proposed Iran-China agreement is stirring up emotions still remaining from the Tobacco Revolt and the Constitutional Revolution, just as racial issues in America today stir up emotions remaining from the American Civil War.
People are always asking me about "regime change" -- when will the Iranian people rise up and finally replace the exceedingly corrupt religious thugocracy running the country now? As we know from Generational Dynamics, Iran is in a generational Awakening era, which is the time in any country when a "velvet revolution" or "palace coup" or non-violent coup is most likely to occur.
So I believe that this agreement has almost no chance of being implemented. But if Iran's loony leaders continue to push it, it could be the trigger for the regime change that everyone claims to want.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback: 153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Supremacy-Obsession-Generational/dp/1732738610/
In 2016, India and Iran signed a the "historic" Chabahar Port agreement. Chabahar is on the coast of Iran near Pakistan. India has agreed to invest $500 million to significantly increase the size of this port. Using it, India will be able to bypass Pakistan in shipping goods to Iran, and from there to Afghanistan, Central Asia or Europe. When India took operational control of the port in 2018, India agreed to invest in the 628 km Chabahar-Zahedan railroad linking the port to the Trans-Iranian railway and to other cities in Iran, connecting from there to Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe. ( "18-Feb-18 World View -- Iran gives operational control of its Chabahar seaport to India")
On Tuesday, Iran announced that India would no longer be part of the Chabahar-Zahedan railway project, and that Iran would go it alone. The reason given is that India has delayed providing funding for its share of the project, related to the American sanctions on Iran.
However, it's widely suspected that India was dropped from the project under pressure from China. Under the new China-Iran draft agreement, China will assist Iran in "Chabahar’s duty free zone, an oil refinery nearby, and possibly a larger role in Chabahar port as well," according to reports. The upcoming deal will facilitate Chinese investments in "infrastructure, manufacturing and upgrading energy and transport facilities, to refurbishing ports, refineries and other installations." Furthermore, the agreement wi commit Iran to supplying oil and gas to China for the whole duration.
Using debt trap diplomacy, China has taken over Sri Lanka's Hambantota port, and is expected soon to take over the Mombasa port in Kenya. In each of those cases, there is a large enclave of thousands of Chinese workers living near the ports. Under the new draft agreement, China is already planning an enclave of 5,000 Chinese workers in Iran, and may be planning to take over the Chabahar port, when the time is right.
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(15-Jul-2020)
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The Chinese Communist Party and Wuhan Coronavirus
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The following are some personal thoughts.
The administration is now saying that we have to learn to live with coronavirus.
The good news is that once you get sick from Wuhan Coronavirus, then doctors are a lot more able to treat you and possibly even cure you. Furthermore, there are many therapeutics being successfully developed for treating the illness. So the death rate for infected people has been coming down.
On the other hand, I haven't heard anyone credibly claim that a vaccine will be available until well into 2021, if then. And even if one becomes available, how will it be administered? Will the developing country (US, UK, China, etc.) restrict it to its own citizens until they're all protected? That will create huge international outrage, including violent riots. There are 330 million Americans. How long would it take to provide a vaccine to all of them? There are almost 8 billion people in the world. Same question.
In the US, there's been a big resurgence of infections in some southern states -- California, Arizona, Texas, Florida. One reason given for this is that there's been a kind of reversal from the north. In March, people stayed indoors in the north to stay warm, and went outside in the south. Today, people go outdoors in the north, but stay indoors in the south to get air conditioning. The reasoning is that the virus spreads most rapidly among a group of people indoors in an enclosed area, so it spread rapidly in the north in March, and in the south today.
It had been hoped (and expected) that the coronavirus would act like the seasonal flu and slow down (or stop) during the warm summer months. That seems to have been a false hope. The coronavirus seems much more virulent than the seasonal flu.
All the experts seem to expect a "second wave" in the fall, as happened in the fall 1918 with the Spanish Flu pandemic. Perhaps, by that time, some of these therapeutics will be successful enough so that most people can recover.
Every state and every country seems to be handling the pandemic in its own way, but it always seems to end the same way. Israel started out with a quick lockdown and strict controls, and thought that they had conquered it, but now there's a big resurgence again. The same is true in South Africa.
It's now winter in South America, and infections are growing exponentially in almost every country. In fact, infections are growing exponentially across Africa. That's going to cause a major political explosion.
Confusion over face masks continues. In February, Dr. Anthony Fauci was saying that face masks were not necessary for anyone but medical workers. The explanation now given for that advice is because there were not enough face masks available for the general public, beyond medical workers.
Since then the advice has changed to make face masks optional or required, depending on the jurisdiction. Sometimes "social distancing" is enough so that you don't need a mask, according to some experts, but you always need a mask according to others. Also, do people have to be one meter apart or two meters apart for social distancing? It seems to vary.
Why do we wear face masks? "You wear a mask to protect me, and I wear a mask to protect you," goes the standard explanation. This means that if you're social distancing, then you don't have to worry about a mask. But in the last couple of days, that advice has been changing. It seems that the virus is spreading not in large droplets that fall to the ground quickly (as had been previously stated), but rather in a fine mist that stays in the air for a long time. That means that if you don't want to be infected, then you always have to wear a face mask, and you have to inhale through your mask, even if you're socially distancing.
If you get the virus and you survive, can you get it again? The experts say they don't know. Apparently you have immunity for a few weeks or months, but we don't have experience to judge whether the immunity lasts longer than that. So if you've had the virus already, you might get it again in the fall.
So only about 3% of the world's population have become infected so far, according to one estimate, including those that show no symptoms. That means that 97% of the world still has no immunity at all.
It's pretty random. Anyone could get infected just by touching the wrong thing or breathing the wrong air or being at the wrong place at the wrong time. Which means that, sooner or later, perhaps 5 billion, 6 billion or 7 billion more people have yet to be infected. I'm one of those who believe that, sooner or later, everyone will be infected.
Personally, I know that I'm in multiple risk groups -- old, overweight, high blood pressure -- so if I live long enough to get infected, I won't live much longer after that. Young people, the experts say, are far more likely to survive, though lately there have been statistics challenging that claim. However, experience in other countries shows that children in school are almost completely safe.
As regular readers know, I follow the news about China constantly, and I've written a book, "War Between China and Japan" which describes how China is preparing to launch a war of revenge against Japan, a war of annexation against Taiwan, and a war with America because we will be defending Japan and Taiwan.
It's been increasingly clear since Xi Jinping came to power that China is becoming more and more belligerent and hostile every day. With regard to the situation in Hong Kong, it's been clear (again) that China feels free to violate any international law, but still demands that everyone else obey international law. The Chinese Communist Party considers themselves to be the Master Race, and everyone else to be barbarians and vassals, and the only purpose of international law is to provide a means for the Chinese to control the barbarians.
This has been really clear in the last few days as the CCP has imposed a harsh National Security law on Hong Kong, completely ignoring international law and their own commitment in the 1984 handover agreement with the UK. The same is true of their arrest, torture and enslavement of millions of Uighurs, and their illegal annexation of the South China Sea. The CCP attitude is that they're superior to everyone else, and not bound even by their own commitments.
The CCP thugs don't have a strategy. They are increasingly paranoid and desperate, and lash out in all directions at once. They're absolutely furious that they're being blamed (correctly) for having unleashed the Wuhan Coronavirus on the world, lied about it, purposely spread it to hundreds of countries, and purposely purchased all available PPE (face masks, gowns, goggles, etc.) around the world so that those materials wouldn't be available to anyone but the Chinese. The CCP have managed to piss off almost every country in the world, even countries that are forced to support them.
On Tuesday, FBI director Christopher Wray gave a press conference on the enormous threat to the United States from the Chinese Communist Party:
"The greatest long-term threat to our nation’s information and intellectual property, and to our economic vitality, is the counterintelligence and economic espionage threat from China. It’s a threat to our economic security—and by extension, to our national security. ...And at this very moment, China is working to compromise American health care organizations, pharmaceutical companies, and academic institutions conducting essential COVID-19 research."
As Wray suggests, the CCP are desperate to be the first to develop therapeutics and a vaccine for Wuhan Coronavirus to use as leverage against America and the West. He says that the Chinese want to "compromise American ... institutions conducting essential COVID-19 research." He doesn't say whether the Chinese simply want to steal the intellectual property, or to hack into company services and somehow destroy them - probably both.
Meanwhile, the hostility towards China has grown substantially in the last year in the West. The mutual xenophobia between China and Western nations grows almost every day. This will not end well.
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(8-Jul-2020)
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India's list of China's border disagreements
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Communist China's state media are claiming a major victory in the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHCR) when 53 countries supported China's human rights record in Hong Kong, and only 27 members opposed it.
The United Kingdom called for the vote to condemn China's human rights record in Hong Kong, after Chinese Communist Party (CCP) implemented a new Hong Kong Security Law that imposes harsh restrictions on freedom. For example, a person can be arrested and jailed for 5 years to life for merely criticizing a CCP policy or action.
The CCP action violates the commitment that China made to Britain in a 1984 agreement that was registered with the UN. The commitment was that after Britain handed its Hong Kong colony over the China in 1997, China would guarantee a high degree of freedom and autonomy in Hong Kong for 50 years, until 2047.
For many years, the US, UK and other Western nations have ignored or overlooked human rights violations in China. However, the violations have become extremely egregious since the rise of dictator Xi Jinping. The CCP has also committed many other human rights violations, including arresting, torturing and enslaving millions of Muslim Uighurs in East Turkestan (Xinjiang province), as well as arresting and torturing Buddhists in Tibet and Christians anywhere who simply pray to Jesus. The CCP thugs claim that they're the Master Race and all the rest of us are barbarians, but every day the CCP proves that we in the West are far superior, and the CCP thugs are barbarians with an IQ of 50, with no capability other than to bluster and kill.
And we have to mention that the CCP apes are so stupid that they didn't stop the Wuhan Coronavirus when they could have, but instead let it spread, and then purposely seeded the virus into dozens of other countries, something they continue to believe is a victory for China.
So the CCP media is quite gleeful about their victory in the UNHCR. According to the puppet media Global Times:
"A total of 53 countries supported China's national security law for Hong Kong at the 44th Session of the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) in Geneva on Tuesday, triumphing over 27 members that attacked and called for harsh measures against China over issues involving Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Tibet.The landslide victory was seen by experts as showing that China's achievements in human rights have won more supporters and become known by wider audiences. The double standards of some Western countries that tried to politicize the UNHRC and to use human rights-related issues as weapons to attack China, brought themselves more criticism within the international community."
The people supporting China's human rights record form an interesting rogue's gallery of countries, many with their own devastating human rights record.
Some are brutal dictatorships that torture, jail and arrest political opponents and journalists: Cuba, Cambodia, Cameroon, Egypt, Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Syria and others.
Some, like China, are currently committing genocide and ethnic cleansing, or have done so recently: Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Zimbabwe, Burundi, Cambodia, and others.
Belarus is the only European country supporting China.
The vast majority -- over 40 -- are part of China's Belt and Road Infrastructure (BRI) project. China has been using "debt trap diplomacy" on these projects and now, particularly in Africa, many countries can no longer make their debt payments, thanks to Wuhan Virus lockdowns and downturns. So these countries are at China's mercy and they have no choice but to do as their Chinese puppetmasters tell them.
The complete list of countries supporting China are:
China, Antigua and Barbuda, Bahrain, Belarus, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Comoros, Congo-Brazzaville, Cuba, Djibouti, Dominica, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Gabon, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Laos, Lebanon, Lesotho, Mauritania, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Nicaragua, Niger, North Korea, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Papua New Guinea, Saudi Arabia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Syria, Tajikistan, Togo, UAE, Venezuela, Yemen, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Many countries did not vote at all. The United States did not vote because it is no longer a member of the UNHCR, after withdrawing in 2018 because the agency is too political -- which is pretty obvious from this latest vote.
European countries voted overwhelmingly to support the condemnation of China's human rights record. However, Spain, Italy and Poland abstained, which analysts say shows that there is no coherent European policy when it comes to China. That's no surprise.
Here's a list of the countries that voted to condemn China's human rights policy:
Australia, Austria, Belgium, Belize, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Germany, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Marshall Islands, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Palau, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom.
While we're making reference lists of countries that support or condemn China's human rights policies, this is a good time to re-post a list of China's border conflicts, according to Indian media.
On Friday, India's prime minister paid a surprise visit to the troops in Ladakh, facing the Chinese troops on the other side of the border. Modi gave a speech to the troops, including the following:
"Age of expansionism is over, now, is the age of development. The policy of development is the foundation of mankind and is the only policy relevant today. History has witnessed that the expansionist policy has hurt humanity the most. Expansionist policy has always threatened world peace. History has witnessed that such forces have either lost or were forced to turn back. This is what the world has experienced so far and it has once again made up its mind against the policy of expansion."
Modi didn't mention China, but it's obvious that's who he meant. In response, the Hindustan Times posted the list of China's 21 border conflicts. The following is the list:
"China's 21 border disputesXi Jinping’s China has territorial disputes with 20 more countries, not just India over Ladakh
President Donald Trump on Thursday waded right in the middle of India’s dispute with China, asserting that Beijing’s aggressive stance in Ladakh fits with the larger pattern of Chinese aggression in other parts of the world. President Trump’s office did not elaborate on China’s aggression elsewhere but is seen as a clear reference to Beijing’s efforts to enlarge its position on border disputes. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had recently called it China’s “rogue attitude” as he announced the movement of US supercarriers in the Indo Pacific region to counter China’s aggressive posture.
According to Beijing watchers, China has traditionally suffered from xenophobia against foreigners. The Middle Kingdom’s fears were exacerbated in the past two centuries as a result of which China believes that it is the only civilizational power in the world and the rest are either tributary states or barbarians.
China has had territorial disputes with 21 neighbours including India over its claims on land and sea. Here is a complete list of its disputes.
Brunei
China claims the southern part of the Spratly Islands chain. Brunei, on the other hand, claims part of South China Sea nearest to it as part of its continental shelf and Exclusive Economic Zone
Philippines
China and Philippines disagree over parts of the South China Sea including the Spratly Islands. Philippines took the dispute to the International Court of Justice where they won the case but the Chinese side did not abide by the order of the ICJ. Tensions have continued between the two countries despite economic incentives offered by China.
Indonesia
China’s nine-dash line overlaps the Natuna Sea/Exclusive Economic Zone of Indonesia leading to disputes. China claims fishing rights in waters near the islands. Indonesia government argues that China’s claims are not recognised under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Indonesia irked China in July 2017 when it renamed parts of the South China Sea as North Natuna Sea to underscore its claim.
Malaysia
China’s dispute with Malaysia also revolves around parts of the South China Sea, particularly the Spratly Islands. Its claims cover only islands included in its Exclusive Economic Zone of 200 miles as defined by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Malaysia has a military presence on three such islands that it considers to be part of the continental shelf.
Singapore
Singapore is not a claimant state in the South China Sea disputes but is closely aligned to the United States and allows the presence of US naval forces in Singaporean waters. It does not want to antagonise China by openly taking sides though it does advocate freedom of navigation and resolution of all disputes in line with the UN Convention of Law of the Seas.
Laos
China claims large areas of Laos on historical precedent of China’s Yuan Dynasty during 1271-1368
Cambodia
China has, on occasions, claimed part of the country on historical precedent (China’s Ming dynasty 1368-1644)
Thailand
Thailand opposes China’s dredging on the Mekong River since 2001 for large ships to carry goods from its landlocked Yunnan province to ports in Thailand, Laos and remaining southeast Asia. China has also built hydropower dams on the main stream of the Mekong River, altering the natural flood-drought cycle, affecting ecosystems as well as economies of countries on the lower Mekong River.
The Thai Cabinet scrapped a Chinese-led dredging project in February 2020 to blast rapids on the Mekong river. This had already led to fall in water levels and fers that it would lead to drought and affect 6 million people in Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam
Japan
Japan’s dispute with China centers around South China Sea, particularly Senkaku Islands, Ryukyu Islands and the overlapping Air Defence Identification Zone and Exclusive Economic Zone in the East China Sea
Vietnam
Vietnam, which fought a bloody war with China in 1979 when Beijing tried to teach its former ally a lesson, has stood its ground on its territorial claims over parts of the South China Sea, and the Macclesfield Bank, Paracel Islands and the Spratly Islands. Last month, a Chinese ship rammed a Vietnamese fishing boat operating in the Paracel Islands that was seen as an effort by Beijing to flex muscles to enforce a unilateral fishing ban in parts of the South China Sea against vessels from another nation.
India
China occupies 38,000 sq km Indian territory in the Aksai Chin region apart from staking claim on Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh. It was this expansionist policy that led to the ongoing standoff between the Indian Army and the Chinese PLA that escalated into a violent scrap in Ladakh’s Galwan valley. Another 5,163 sq km of Shaksgam valley was illegally ceded by Pakistan to China in 1963. Hence, the total Indian territory occupied by China is over 43 ,000 sq km.
Nepal
Nepal and China have pending border issues over three boundary pillars in Dolakha and two in the vicinity of Mt Everest. There have, however, been reports that China has illegally occupied strategic land at 12 places across Nepal. China has also claimed part of Nepal dating back to the Sino-Nepalese war in 1788-1792, claiming that some parts of Nepal are part of Tibet and therefore, part of China.
Taiwan
China claims all of Taiwan but particular disputes are Macclesfield Bank, Paracel Islands Scarborough Shoal, part of South China Sea and the Spratly Islands. The Paracel Islands, also called Xisha Islands in zvietnamese, is a group of islands in the South China Sea whose sovereignty is disputed.
North Korea
The two countries have a continuing dispute over Mount Paektu and Yalu and Tuman rivers. China has also claimed Baekhu Mountain and Jiandao. Beijing has, on occasions, claimed all of North Korea on historical grounds (Yuan Dynasty 1271-1368)
South Korea
South Korea and China have an overlapping Air Defence Identification Zone and a continuing Exclusive Economic Zone dispute over Leodo (Socotra Rock) in the East China Sea. China has also, on occasions, claimed entire South Korea on historical grounds (Yuan Dynasty 1271-1368)
Mongolia
China and Mongolia have settled their boundary dispute but China has claimed all of Mongolia on historical precedent (Yuan Dynasty 1271-1368).
Bhutan
Bhutanese enclaves in Tibet, namely Cherkip, Gompa, Dho, Dungmar, Gesur, Gezon, Itse Gompa, Khochar, Nyanri, Ringung, Sanmar, Tarchen and Zuthulphuk. Bhutan has lost a substantial chunk of area under dispute including the Kula Kangri peak to slow encroachments by China. Beijing claims Kula Kangri and mountainous areas to the west of this peak in addition to the western Haa district of Bhutan.
Tajikistan
The two sides have a bilateral dispute dating back to 1884 when a border demarcation agreement between the Qing Dynasty and Tsarist Russia left large segments of the frontier in the sparsely-populated eastern Pamirs without a clear definition.
The Chinese claims are based on historical precedent (Qing Dynasty 1644-1912).
In 1991, Tajikistan inherited from the Soviet Union three disputed border segments constituting about 28,000 sq km which China and the Soviet Union had been unable to resolve.
In 1999, Tajikistan and China signed a border demarcation agreement defining the border in two of the three segments. Under this deal, Tajikistan ceded about 200 sw km lands to China. In 2002, Tajikistan agreed to cede 1,122 sq km or about four percent of the territory that Beijing had claimed. China has, in all, settled for 3.5 per cent of the claimed territory.
Kazakhstan
China has laid claim to a territory in Kazakhstan stretching from Semirechie to Lake Balkhash covering 34,000 sq km. In May 2020, a Chinese website ‘Sohu.com’ published an article claiming that Kazakhstan is located on territories that historically belong to China.
China has settled for 22 per cent of its claim over Kazakh territory. Despite a border demarcation treaty with China in 1994 and claim by Kazakh state media that the Kazakhstan government had succeeded in retaining 56.9 percent of the disputed territory, critics had opined that the remaining 43.1 per cent of the land also belonged to Kazakhstan for which a new deal should be signed.
Kyrgyzstan
China lays claim to the whole of Kyrgyz territory. In May 2020, Chinese website tutiao.com published an article on such a claim and argued that under the Han Dynasty, the entire Kyrgyz territory was part of the Chinese mainland before the Russian empire captured it.
Chia has settled for 32 percent of its claim over Kyrgyz territory. Under the 1999 agreement, Kyrgyzstan handed over 1,250 sq km to China.
Russia
Despite signing bilateral agreements in 1991 and 1994 to delimit the estern and wester section of the Russia-China border, a few sectors remain unresolved. There are 160,000 sq km still unilaterally claimed by China despite signing several agreements.
In October 2004, the 4,300 sq border was finally demarcated in its entirety, thus resolving a 300-year-old territorial dispute.
In 2005, the Russian Parliament ratified the agreement in 2008, a part of the Abagaitu Islet, the entire Tarabarov Bolshoi Ussuriysk Island and some adjacent river islets were handed over to China."
So between the list of border conflicts and the list of countries supporting China's human rights record, we have an indication of who China's allies and enemies are, around the world.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
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(5-Jul-2020)
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Ladakh: India - China - Pakistan military buildup continues
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
China's National People's Congress in Beijing rubber-stamped a harsh Hong Kong National Security Law on Tuesday, and on Wednesday arrested over 300 peaceful protesters in Hong Kong.
On Wednesday, the Hong Kong police bragged about their first arrest on Twitter:
"#BREAKING: A man was arrested for holding a #HKIndependence flag in #CausewayBay, Hong Kong, violating the #NationalSecurityLaw. This is the first arrest made since the law has come into force.— Hong Kong Police Force (@hkpoliceforce) July 1, 2020"
So someone was carrying a "Hong Kong Independence" flag. According to the new National Security Law, he will be in jail for 5-10 years.
The new law marks an end to the "one nation, two systems" doctrine that the Chinese Communist Party had committed to until 2047. It also means that China is repudiating the international commitments that it made when the UK handed Hong Kong over to China in 1997.
This is nothing new. The CCP consider themselves to be the Master Race, and everyone else to be barbarians, as I described in detail in my book, "War Between China and Japan." Their officials take pleasure in lying, knowing that the useful idiots in the Western mainstream media will simply repeat them as if they were true. They commit to international agreements, knowing that they're so superior, they can simply ignore the commitments they've made.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement:
"No reasonable person can assert today that Hong Kong maintains a high degree of autonomy from China, given facts on the ground.Hong Kong and its dynamic, enterprising, and free people have flourished for decades as a bastion of liberty, and this decision gives me no pleasure. But sound policy making requires a recognition of reality. While the United States once hoped that free and prosperous Hong Kong would provide a model for authoritarian China, it is now clear that China is modeling Hong Kong after itself."
Pompeo's statement is an official government assessment that Hong Kong will no longer be assured of receiving special considerations, such as exemptions from tariffs imposed on Chinese goods. However, those decisions have not yet been made.
There are harsh penalties -- prison terms of 5 or 10 years or life -- for anything that fits into any one of several categories: secession, subversion, terrorist activities, or collusion with a foreign country.
However, each of these categories is ill-defined, and so they can be applied in any way. Simply criticizing a CCP policy could be interpreted as subversion, for example, just as carrying an "Independence" flag makes you guilty of criminal secession.
The CCP will set up its own security forces in Hong Kong, and its own courts, with judges that it appoints. Defendants can be deported to the mainland for trial or jailing there.
The law applies to anyone, anywhere in the world, including Americans. This may seem strange, but it's quite consistent with the CCP view that they're the Master Race, and the rest of the world are barbarians.
Listening to analysts and CCP stooges today, it's pretty clear that the CCP has had a fundamental change of attitude. In the past, they've made concessions to the West to avoid criticisms. But what now seems clear is that they no longer care what anyone in west thinks. They will do whatever they want in Hong Kong, just as they've illegally annexed and militarized the South China Sea, just as they've arrested, jailed, tortured and enslaved millions of Uighurs -- and they won't be deterred by anything, certainly not by a statement by Mike Pompeo.
The CCP believes that by enforcing this new law in the harshest possible way, then the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong will settle down, and Hong Kong will be fully compliant within a year. History and Generational Dynamics do not support this view.
Although there haven't been any new military clashes between Indian and Chinese soldiers in Ladakh on the China-India border, military buildups continue on both sides.
As I've written in the past, the Ladakh military clash is remarkably similar to the military clash between Japanese and Chinese soldiers in 1937 in the Marco Polo Bridge Incident. The clash was resolved quickly, but both sides brought in reinforcements. Within a month there was full-scale war, leading to the Japanese "Rape of Nanking" shortly thereafter. ( "13-Jun-20 World View -- China and India mobilize thousands of troops along border in Ladakh")
With both sides bringing reinforcements into Ladakh, the situation is very similar.
Here are some recent developments, according to Indian media (Chinese media is remaining quiet):
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/
Sources:
Related Articles:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(2-Jul-2020)
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