Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's
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Operation Summer Pulse 04

China and America are both planning major military exercises near Taiwan later in July. The two major military events are:

• China is planning military exercises in the Taiwan Strait this month, as a show of force to discourage Taiwan's moves towards independence.
• America is planning an exceptionally large show of force in the Pacific late in July, Operation Summer Pulse 04.

This all comes on the heels of a report to Congress last month by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission which stated that relations with China are unsatisfactory in many respects, and in particular the historical "One-China" policy, which states that Taiwan is part of China and will be reunited with China, is not working and should be reviewed.

The One China policy is a classic political compromise that's kept the peace between China and America over Taiwan for over 50 years. After the Chinese civil war ended in 1949, with the Nationalist faction escaping to Taiwan, it's been Chinese policy that Taiwan is still part of China, and America's policy that Taiwan will, at a suitable future time, rejoin China as a province. (See Taiwan's Wild Election Battle).

But the USSC report (see excerpts below) says that the entire One China policy is no longer working and has to be reviewed. The report notes that China has been isolating Taiwan internationally and marginalizing Taiwan economically, while appearing to abandon its commitment to a peaceful approach.

If you look carefully, you can almost feel the generational dynamics at work here. China and America are both entering generational crisis periods, with leaders who have no personal memories of the major world wars of the 1940s. As usual during crisis periods, brinkmanship is taking place, leading to increasing risk of conflict on both sides. China is acting too belligerently towards Taiwan; the Committee notices this, and concludes that the the solution is to act belligerently back.

What makes this so extraordinary to watch is that neither side has any choice. Neither China nor America want war with each other, but it's as if China, Taiwan and America are puppets being controlled by some great generational puppetmaster in the sky to move, step by step, towards war.

China and its provinces (Source: The Economist)

Here's why:

• Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian is a veteran of Taiwan's 1990 Wild Lily Rebellion, a student separatist movement that began as a reaction to the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown in China. As the USCC report notes, Chen is moving towards Taiwan independence. Even if "nothing happens" in the military confrontation this summer, the continuing generational change led by Chen makes increasing moves to Taiwan independence inevitable.
• China's western provinces (Tibet and Xinjiang) have their own separatist movements. So China must move against Taiwan in order to keep its western provinces in line. China has no choice.
• America's treaty with Taiwan calls for full defense of Taiwan in case of an attack from China. America has similar treaties with Japan and South Korea, and if America failed to defend Taiwan, then its treaties with Japan and South Korea would lose all credibility. So America has no choice.

So the situation is extraordinary, and I can't see any way that it can end in anything but war between America and China. If anyone else can, I'd willing to be educated.

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Excerpts from the USCC report to Congress:

We have concluded that a number of the current trends in U.S.-China relations are presently moving in the wrong direction.

...

Growing Tensions Across the Strait and in Hong Kong China has not offered win-win political solutions to Taiwan and Hong Kong. China has been building missile forces and positioning its military to deter Taiwan from taking political steps Beijing considers unacceptable moves towards independence and to coerce Taiwan to end the island's continued separate status. Further, China is using its political clout to keep Taiwan out of regional and bilateral economic arrangements and to otherwise economically marginalize the island. Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian's recent reelection and Chen's plan for constitutional revision have heightened China's anxiety regarding Taiwan and heightened the near-term prospects for conflict. In Hong Kong, China's National People's Congress has undercut Hong Kong's autonomy and self-governance by its recent unilateral decisions to rule out near-term direct elections for Hong Kong's chief executive and Legislative Council. Moreover, Beijing has engaged in a systemic campaign in recent weeks to intimidate the democracy movement in Hong Kong by depicting its leaders as unpatriotic toward China, directing an unprecedented visit of eight Chinese warships to Hong Kong's harbor, and prohibiting legislative debate on electoral matters in Hong Kong's legislature.

China's recent actions toward Taiwan and Hong Kong call into question its commitments to a peaceful approach toward Taiwan and to preserving Hong Kong's autonomy and self-government. These developments merit a fresh look at U.S. policies in these areas by the Congress and executive branch. In particular, recent developments across the Strait are putting increasing stress on the United States' one China policy, demonstrating the need for a new assessment of this policy that takes into consideration current realities.

...

Recommendation: Congress should enhance its oversight role in the implementation of the Taiwan Relations Act. Executive branch officials should be invited to consult on intentions and report on actions taken to implement the TRA through the regular committee hearing process of the Congress, thereby allowing for appropriate public debate on these important matters. In this same context, Congress and the administration should conduct a fresh assessment of the one China policy, given the changing realities in China and Taiwan. This should include a review of:

• The policy's successes, failures, and continued viability;
• Whether changes may be needed in the way the United States government coordinates its defense assistance to Taiwan, including the need for an enhanced operating relationship between U.S. and Taiwan defense officials and the establishment of a U.S.-Taiwan hotline for dealing with crisis situations.
• How U.S. policy can better support Taiwan's breaking out of the international economic isolation that the PRC seeks to impose on it and whether this issue should be higher on the agenda in U.S.-China relations. Economic and trade policy measures that could help ameliorate Taiwan's marginalization in the Asian regional economy should also be reviewed. These could include enhanced U.S.-Taiwan bilateral trade arrangements that would include protections for labor rights, the environment, and other important U.S. interests.