Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
Dynamics
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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List of major Generational Dynamics predictions

These are the major predictions posted on this web site since 2003, using the generational forecasting methodology. (27-Mar-2008)
Summary Hundreds of articles have been posted on this web site since 2003, most containing specific Generational Dynamics predictions. All of those predictions have come true, or are trending true. None has been shown to be false. This article contains a brief list of major predictions. This list will be updated from time to time.

Hundreds of articles have been posted on this web site since 2003, most containing specific Generational Dynamics predictions. All of those predictions have come true, or are trending true. None has been shown to be false. There is no analyst, journalist, politician or web site in the world with anything close to the predictive success of this web site.

(Please download and read the article (PDF file), "International business forecasting using System Dynamics with generational flows."

This white paper brings together in one place and updates many other materials this web site, including most of the material on this page.)

Contents - This page
First appearance in 2003
First appearance in 2004
First appearance in 2005
First appearance since 2006
Clash of Civilizations
Summary

Note that Generational Dynamics does not predict actual events. What it predicts is the public reactions to unpleasant events. It predicts the attitudes and behaviors of large masses of people, entire generations of people.

For reference, here's a brief list of the major predictions that have appeared on this web site since 2003, and the year of first appearance. This list will be updated from time to time. For more details about any specific prediction, refer to web log for the latest articles on the subject.

First appearance in 2003

First appearance in 2004

First appearance in 2005

First appearance since 2006

Clash of Civilizations

Summary

The predictive value of generational theory was established by Neil Howe and the late William A. Strauss, the founding fathers of generational theory. In their 1997 book, The Fourth Turning, they write, "Sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning. ... A spark will ignite a new mood. Today, that same spark would flame briefly but then extinguish.... This time, though, it will catalyze a Crisis." Thus, they didn't predict the 9/11 attacks, but they did predict that some event, some spark, would change the mood of the American public into a Crisis mood. It's not the event that can be predicted; it's the attitude of the public to unpleasant shocks and surprises that can be predicted.

Contents - This page
First appearance in 2003
First appearance in 2004
First appearance in 2005
First appearance since 2006
Clash of Civilizations
Summary

Strauss and Howe developed and established generational theory for the Anglo-American timeline since the War of the Roses in the late 1400s.

Generational Dynamics extends generational theory to be valid for all places and times in history. This involves major theoretical extensions of the generational model, to the point where it's now a very sophisticated scholarly subject that could serve as a college undergraduate or graduate major. It's also an interdisciplinary subject, involving history, comparative history, mathematics, chaos theory, sociology, population dynamics, economics, macroeconomics, system dynamics, and even the theory of evolution.

In 2003, when the Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology was developed, this web site was set up as a testing ground. Since 2003, over a thousand articles have appeared on this web site, most containing specific Generational Dynamics predictions. All of those articles are still available on this web site, so anyone who wishes can go back and find the original predictions.

Note that it's easy to get a million predictions right: Just make two million predictions. That's why it's important to note that no Generational Dynamics prediction has turned out to be wrong.

The generational methodology can be used to make very accurate predictions, but only for certain types of predictions.

The reason for this success is because the concepts of Chaos Theory and System Dynamics, both well-established disciplines, have been applied to determine what kinds of predictions can be made. Thus, all these predictions are "trend predictions," not "chaotic event" predictions.

It's impossible to predict the attitudes or behaviors of any person or any group of politicians, but it IS possible to predict the attitudes and behaviors of large masses of people, entire generations of people, and how they react to events. The success of this web site since 2003 indicates that this claim is true.


Copyright © 2002-2016 by John J. Xenakis.