Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
Dynamics
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

 |  HOME  |  WEB LOG  |  COUNTRY WIKI  |  COMMENT  |  FORUM  |  DOWNLOADS  |  ABOUT  | 

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Apr-08
The new Iraqi "civil war" fizzles out, as expected

Web Log - April, 2008

The new Iraqi "civil war" fizzles out, as expected

Radical Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr called for a cease-fire on Sunday, bringing calm to most of the streets of Basra in southern Iraq.

Related Articles

Iraqi 'Civil War'
Brookings Institution does a full reversal on Iraq war: As Americans withdraw from cities, Brookings admits there's no civil war.... (1-Jul-2009)
Stock markets in Iraq and Iran are surging.: Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says "it is the end of capitalism."... (17-Oct-2008)
On "60 Minutes," Bob Woodward makes ridiculous claims about Iraq.: He says the surge succeeded because of some magic new military technique.... (7-Sep-2008)
Iraq's Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr turns from arms to "culture": This follows several Sunni "Tribal Awakenings" to expel al-Qaeda.... (10-Aug-2008)
Obama continues to damage his candidacy with his Iraq policy.: Obama is hurting himself by bobbing and weaving on the success of the "surge."... (27-Jul-2008)
The new Iraqi "civil war" fizzles out, as expected: Radical Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr called for a cease-fire on Sunday,... (1-Apr-08)
The Iraq war may be related to the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.: On the first anniversary of the successful "surge" strategy,... (17-Feb-08)
Casualties are down sharply in Iraq.: This issue has been a spectacular validation of Generational Dynamics theory.... (31-Oct-07)
As Turkey prepares to invade northern Iraq, it's isolating itself internationally: A new "Young Turks revolution" is reestablishing strong Turkish nationalism.... (29-Oct-07)
Washington Post says that al-Qaeda in Iraq is "crippled": Meanwhile, Iraqi citizens' political opposition to America is growing.... (16-Oct-07)
Antiwar Democrats are freaking out over Bush's Vietnam - Iraq war comparison.: The same people who have been comparing Iraq to Vietnam for years... (24-Aug-07)
Iraq: Suicide bombers interrupt celebrations in Baghdad over soccer win: Iraq's stunning 4-3 soccer victory over South Korea in the Asia Cup semi-final... (26-Jul-07)
The al-Askariya Shrine in Samarra, Iraq, is bombed again: Last year's bombing triggered months of vicious sectarian violence in Baghdad,... (14-Jun-07)
Congress votes to fund Iraq war without deadlines: The result shows conflicting anxieties during America's Crisis era.... (24-May-07)
Senator Joe Biden wants to move troops from Iraq to Darfur civil war: Saying on Meet the Press that we should remove troops from Iraqi "civil war,"... (29-Apr-07)
NY Times columnist Thomas Friedman shows ignorance and evasiveness about al-Qaeda in Iraq: In an interview that appeared on CNN on Sunday,... (24-Apr-07)
BBC kills an Iraqi war story because it's "too positive": But a drama showing British troops brutalizing civilians is perfectly fine.... (11-Apr-07)
Tens of thousands of Shi'ites protest against American "occupiers": In what appeared to be a grand, party-like atmosphere,... (10-Apr-07)
Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq : This is exactly the kind of thing that generational theory predicts. (1-Apr-2007)
New optimistic poll of Iraqi people barely mentioned on Sunday TV news shows: And Bob Shieffer on CBS's "Face the Nation" asked really dumb questions of Secretary of Defense Robert Gates.... (19-Mar-07)
Robert Gates on "civil war" in Iraq.: Following the release of the Iraq National Intelligence Estimate on Friday,... (2-Feb-07)
News as theatre: NBC announces it will call Iraq war a "civil war": On Monday morning on the "Today Show,"... (29-Nov-06)
President Bush's reference to Vietnam War "Tet Offensive" has journalists in a tizzy: Airhead journalists have completely missed the point, and the real danger.... (20-Oct-06)
Learning-disabled journalists and politicians continue to predict Iraq civil war: Occasionally journalists take a break from their heavy-breathing over Congressional pages,... (8-Oct-06)
General John Abizaid says there'll be no troop cutbacks in Iraq: This is hardly a surprise to me, though not for the reasons most people give.... (19-Sep-06)
Debate over civil war in Iraq rages over semantics: An actual crisis civil war in Iraq is impossible, but it's now embroiled in the November elections,... (23-Aug-06)
Washington becomes hysterical again over an Iraqi 'civil war' : A civil war in Iraq is impossible, as I've said many times, because only one generation has passed since the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s. Here's some additional historical information. (7-Aug-2006)
Israel's war against Hizbollah and Lebanon forces Muslims to choose sides : The war is part of a larger Shi'ite-Sunni struggle, and a stopgap ceasefire will create a worsening environment leading to a much more chaotic situation within a few months (25-Jul-2006)
Speculations about a stock market panic and crash : Will there be a stock market panic next week, next month, or next year, and will it lead to a crash? We speculate on some possibilities. (31-May-2006)
Journalists have a 'civil war in Iraq' orgy over the weekend: It's hard to remember when news shows had so much sheer non-stop nonsense... (21-Mar-06)
I just heard on CNN International: "The threat of civil war in Iraq is over.": Surprise! Surprise! The press corps was 100% wrong, and I was right.... (28-Feb-06)
Fear of Iraqi civil war nears hysteria: But there is NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER of a civil war.... (24-Feb-06)
Bombing of 1200 year old Shi'ite mosque inflames Iraq to the verge of massive civil war rhetoric: Shi'ites conducted over 90 revenge attacks on Sunni shrines on Wednesday,... (23-Feb-06)
Vitriolic Iraq war politics erupts in Washington: But the basics of the Iraq war haven't changed a bit.... (21-Nov-05)
After President Bush's speech: What next for Iraq?: With growing insurgency violence and flagging public support, what's America's "end strategy" in Iraq?... (1-Jul-05)
Iraqi Sunni and Shi'ite clerics call for restraint: Analysts, pundits and journalists are still predicting civil war, and they're still getting it wrong.... (23-May-05)
The chaotic Iraq election is only two days away: The election is on Sunday, January 30, and no one has a clue what's going to happen.... (28-Jan-05)
Brent Scowcroft predicts an "incipient civil war" for Iraq: Pundits are returning to wishful thinking as the January 30 election approaches... (09-Jan-05)
Can we withdraw from Iraq in 2005?: Suddenly the Washington buzz is that whoever wins - Bush or Kerry - will begin to withdraw American troops from Iraq. We look at two historical examples to predict scenarios. (16-Oct-2004)
Fallujans are getting angry with insurgents: Just a few hours after my posting that al-Zarqawi's most formidable enemy may be the 40-50 year old mothers of Fallujah,... (13-Oct-04)
Al-Sadr's Shi'ite militia fighters turn in their weapons: The war in Iraq took a significant turn this week when the Shi'ite militias agreed to disarm,... (13-Oct-04)
The press is talking about another "uprising" in Iraq. Yawn.: Nothing shows more how clueless the press is about what's going on in Iraq than this constant talk about civil war and uprisings.... (7-Aug-04)
Iraq Today vs 1960s America (Revised): They have much in common: Bombings, assassinations, student demonstrations, violent riots, calls for insurrection and civil war and harsh rhetoric. That's much more than a coincidence. (8-May-2004)
What Iraqi Civil War?: Early in 2003, I predicted that there would be no popular uprising against the Americans, and that there would be no civil war. After the overthrow of Saddam, I said that an Iraqi civil war was impossible. Despite the constant near-hysteria of the politicians, journalists and high-priced analysts, I've been right so far. Here's why. (09-Apr-04)
Anti-Shi'ite Terror Attacks in Iraq, Pakistan: So far, Sunni and Shi'ite leaders in Iraq aren't taking the bait. (2-Mar-04)
Terrorist suicide bombings in Iraq may backfire against terrorists: During an awakening period, terrorist acts cause masses of people to shrink from more violence. (19-Aug-03)

The BBC really played up the violence last week, with frequent comments about the danger of increasing violence, a new "explosion" into a return to sectarian violence and possible civil war.

As I've been saying since 2003, Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, just one generation past the genocidal Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, and so a civil war at this time is impossible or, if one begins, then it fizzles quickly. That's what happened again last week.

Pundits are really puzzled about what happened. The violence has been portrayed as pitting the Iraqi army, with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki at its head, versus the Shia al-Mahdi army, with radical Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr at its head.

According to the pundits, al-Sadr's army was beating the Iraqi army hands down. It was a totally uneven battle. And yet, al-Sadr is the one who sued for peace. The pundits are wondering, "What's going on?"

This gets to the heart of what an Awakening era is. A year ago, in "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq," I explained at length, quoting numerous sources, that Iraqis did not want to fight, and that Sunni Iraqis were turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq, which was essentially an invading force of terrorists. Of course, we now know that the Sunni Iraqis have thrown out al-Qaeda in Iraq in the "Anbar Awakening" that accompanied the "surge" in American forces.

So it shouldn't be very strange that we're now seeing the same thing on the Shia side. What you have are young 20-25 year old kids, unemployed and living in slums, joining the Shia militias because they can hardly wait to go out there and kill someone. But then you have their 40 year old mothers. Their mothers lived through the horrors of the Iran/Iraq war, and they're absolutely sick of war. They're telling their sons, "Look, your father was tortured and killed in that war. My brother, your uncle, was burned to death. I don't want you getting tortured and killed. Stay out of it."

That's the kind of thing that happens during an Awakening era, and it's why there are so few serious wars fought during those eras.

As if to prove my point, here's an article on the ceasefire:

"Basra fight turns political, Published: March 31, 2008 at 3:34 PM

BAGHDAD, March 31 (UPI) -- A Sadrist lawmaker said the Iraqi curfew enacted to quell recent violence created a humanitarian disaster amid inter-political wrangling over the shaky truce.

Falah Shinishel with the Sadrist Movement said residents in Basra and Baghdad under the curfew suffered from a "dire shortage" of food and medicine and blamed the Iraqi government for continuing the curfew "for unrealistic reasons," Voices of Iraq said Monday.

The spokesman for the Iraqi government, Ali al-Dabbagh, said intelligence suggesting militants were planning a large-scale operation against residential areas prompted a decision to impose an extended curfew on vehicle traffic, though the government lifted the general curfew.

"Terrorist groups are trying to exploit the current situation, and target the residential (areas)," Dabbagh told VOI. ...

Do you get it? Al-Sadr's militias might have won. Instead, the Iraqi government won the war by enforcing a curfew!! Why fight a war, when all you have to do is declare a curfew? That's what happens in an Awakening era. Question: Why don't they just call a curfew in Darfur? Answer: Because it couldn't possibly work there, because that's a Crisis war.

I said there would be no civil war in Iraq, and there was no civil war in Iraq. I said that the Darfur civil war was unstoppable, and the Darfur civil war has been unstoppable. In country after country, and region after region -- Iraq, Iran, Sudan (Darfur), Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Japan, Burma, Kenya, China / Tibet, etc. -- I've made predictions that have come true or are trending true - none has been shown to be false. In the past five years, I've written two books and posted 981 articles on this web site, all of which can still be read by anyone who wants to go back and check what I've said. No pundit would ever challenge people to do that, but I do.

You know, Dear Reader, the sheer absurdity of what's going on is never lost on me. I sit here obsessively, alone in my apartment, in front of my computer, usually late in the evening, and use this apparently god-like power to decide what's going to happen in finances and in countries around the world -- Kenya, Lebanon, Iraq, etc. -- and everything I predict comes true, and I'm the only person in the world doing this. (A couple of years ago, someone in a forum suggested that I was actually CONTROLLING world events. I had a good laugh over that.)

Government officials, high-paid analysts, highly respected journalists, politicians and pundits have no idea what's going on in the world -- or at least when they make predictions, their predictions turn out to be wrong half the time. They don't seem to have a god-like power like I have.

There's no god-like power, of course. It's a good thing I'm not a religious person, because if I were I'd really be confused about what's going on. But I know that it's all generational analysis that I'm always explaining on this web site. Once I do a thorough generational analysis of a country, I know a great deal about what's going to happen there. And it's getting so easy for me, now after my two books and 981 articles. Iraq, Iran, Kenya, Burma, whatever -- at this point I can read a news story or intelligence report about what's happening in any country that I've analyzed, and I immediately can tell whether the news story is significant or not, and what it's probably going to lead to. Other people have to guess or scratch their heads, but I seem to know right away.

If I could get a sponsor interested, within a year I could create a computerized "world model" that would have highly predictive capabilities about any country or region in the world. This product would have plenty of applications in commerce and government, but whenever I propose it to anyone I just get blown off.

This latest Iraq situation has really affected me. When the Basra violence broke out last week, I immediately knew that the mainstream media would play it up, that the mainstream media would be wrong, and that the violence would fizzle before too long. That's what happened. It's gotten so easy for me. Everything I predict comes true, and I'm the only person in the world doing this. There's barely a moment that goes by when I don't just shake my head and ask myself, what the hell is going on? How the hell is this happening? It's absurd and scary.

The traffic to this web site has been growing recently, and based on the web logs, I estimate that I now have well over 5,000 regular readers.

I know from the e-mail messages that I get that many of you are anxious and scared about what's going on in the world, and you come to this web site because it's the only one that tells you what's actually going on, so that you can prepare for it. Nobody in 2003 would have told you that we're headed for a new Great Depression, but I did on this web site. Nobody in 2003 would have told you that the Mideast peace plan would fail, and that a new genocidal war between Arabs and Jews is certain, but I did on this web site. Over and over again, people who want to prepare for what's coming have turned to this web site to get some guidance.

(See "List of major Generational Dynamics predictions" for more information.)

As I always like to say, you can't stop what's coming, any more than you can stop a tsunami. You can't stop it, but you can prepare for it. Treasure the time that you have left, and use it to prepare yourself, your family, your community and your nation.

I want you to know, Dear Reader, that when I first began this web site in 2002, it was an interesting experiment, but today I take my responsibility to this web site very seriously. Mainstream journalists, analysts and politicians have massive conflicts of interest, and often will lose their jobs unless they always say that things will be better or unless they support some political position.

I have no conflicts of interest whatsoever, except to maintain my own credibility. And that's why I always adhere strictly to the Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology that I've developed, and which has never failed me yet.

However, one reason I went into all of this is because I want to make a point to those of you who are scared to death about what's coming: I'm just as scared as you are, probably more scared. It's just that I handle being scared differently from you. I handle it by obsessively posting Generational Dynamics predictions on my web site, which is not something that other people do.

As always, I thank the ever growing readership of this web site. I'm still keeping up with answering e-mail comments and questions, though it sometimes takes me a few days to get back. If you have any questions or comments, you can use e-mail or one of the little "Comment" forms. Also, it's not hard to find my phone number on my web site if you look for it. I'm not inviting a million calls, and I don't have anything to offer but an ear and a little counsel, but that resource is available to you if you want it. We're really all in this together. (1-Apr-08) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Web Log Summary - 2016
Web Log Summary - 2015
Web Log Summary - 2014
Web Log Summary - 2013
Web Log Summary - 2012
Web Log Summary - 2011
Web Log Summary - 2010
Web Log Summary - 2009
Web Log Summary - 2008
Web Log Summary - 2007
Web Log Summary - 2006
Web Log Summary - 2005
Web Log Summary - 2004

Web Log - December, 2016
Web Log - November, 2016
Web Log - October, 2016
Web Log - September, 2016
Web Log - August, 2016
Web Log - July, 2016
Web Log - June, 2016
Web Log - May, 2016
Web Log - April, 2016
Web Log - March, 2016
Web Log - February, 2016
Web Log - January, 2016
Web Log - December, 2015
Web Log - November, 2015
Web Log - October, 2015
Web Log - September, 2015
Web Log - August, 2015
Web Log - July, 2015
Web Log - June, 2015
Web Log - May, 2015
Web Log - April, 2015
Web Log - March, 2015
Web Log - February, 2015
Web Log - January, 2015
Web Log - December, 2014
Web Log - November, 2014
Web Log - October, 2014
Web Log - September, 2014
Web Log - August, 2014
Web Log - July, 2014
Web Log - June, 2014
Web Log - May, 2014
Web Log - April, 2014
Web Log - March, 2014
Web Log - February, 2014
Web Log - January, 2014
Web Log - December, 2013
Web Log - November, 2013
Web Log - October, 2013
Web Log - September, 2013
Web Log - August, 2013
Web Log - July, 2013
Web Log - June, 2013
Web Log - May, 2013
Web Log - April, 2013
Web Log - March, 2013
Web Log - February, 2013
Web Log - January, 2013
Web Log - December, 2012
Web Log - November, 2012
Web Log - October, 2012
Web Log - September, 2012
Web Log - August, 2012
Web Log - July, 2012
Web Log - June, 2012
Web Log - May, 2012
Web Log - April, 2012
Web Log - March, 2012
Web Log - February, 2012
Web Log - January, 2012
Web Log - December, 2011
Web Log - November, 2011
Web Log - October, 2011
Web Log - September, 2011
Web Log - August, 2011
Web Log - July, 2011
Web Log - June, 2011
Web Log - May, 2011
Web Log - April, 2011
Web Log - March, 2011
Web Log - February, 2011
Web Log - January, 2011
Web Log - December, 2010
Web Log - November, 2010
Web Log - October, 2010
Web Log - September, 2010
Web Log - August, 2010
Web Log - July, 2010
Web Log - June, 2010
Web Log - May, 2010
Web Log - April, 2010
Web Log - March, 2010
Web Log - February, 2010
Web Log - January, 2010
Web Log - December, 2009
Web Log - November, 2009
Web Log - October, 2009
Web Log - September, 2009
Web Log - August, 2009
Web Log - July, 2009
Web Log - June, 2009
Web Log - May, 2009
Web Log - April, 2009
Web Log - March, 2009
Web Log - February, 2009
Web Log - January, 2009
Web Log - December, 2008
Web Log - November, 2008
Web Log - October, 2008
Web Log - September, 2008
Web Log - August, 2008
Web Log - July, 2008
Web Log - June, 2008
Web Log - May, 2008
Web Log - April, 2008
Web Log - March, 2008
Web Log - February, 2008
Web Log - January, 2008
Web Log - December, 2007
Web Log - November, 2007
Web Log - October, 2007
Web Log - September, 2007
Web Log - August, 2007
Web Log - July, 2007
Web Log - June, 2007
Web Log - May, 2007
Web Log - April, 2007
Web Log - March, 2007
Web Log - February, 2007
Web Log - January, 2007
Web Log - December, 2006
Web Log - November, 2006
Web Log - October, 2006
Web Log - September, 2006
Web Log - August, 2006
Web Log - July, 2006
Web Log - June, 2006
Web Log - May, 2006
Web Log - April, 2006
Web Log - March, 2006
Web Log - February, 2006
Web Log - January, 2006
Web Log - December, 2005
Web Log - November, 2005
Web Log - October, 2005
Web Log - September, 2005
Web Log - August, 2005
Web Log - July, 2005
Web Log - June, 2005
Web Log - May, 2005
Web Log - April, 2005
Web Log - March, 2005
Web Log - February, 2005
Web Log - January, 2005
Web Log - December, 2004
Web Log - November, 2004
Web Log - October, 2004
Web Log - September, 2004
Web Log - August, 2004
Web Log - July, 2004
Web Log - June, 2004


Copyright © 2002-2016 by John J. Xenakis.