Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-Oct-07
President Jimmy Carter has near-altercation in Darfur

Web Log - October, 2007

President Jimmy Carter has near-altercation in Darfur

Generationally, Darfur is ten years ahead of Burma.

Former President Jimmy Carter got into a shouting match with Sudanese security forces who blocked him from visiting with Darfur refugees.

Related Articles

Darfur Genocide
U.N. commander claims that the Darfur war is over: The war has turned into "very low intensity" clashes and banditry,... (30-Aug-2009)
Darfur war takes a major turn, as Sudan expels aid groups.: Oxfam, CARE, Save the Children, and numerous other aid groups... (11-Mar-2009)
Sri Lanka crisis war appears close to a genocidal climax.: There are two crisis wars in the world today: Darfur and Sri Lanka.... (27-Dec-2008)
Chad and Sudan may be close to a declaration of war: The peace agreement signed in March seems to be falling apart.... (18-Jun-2008)
Sudan's Darfur war expands as Khartoum comes under attack by rebels: What were they thinking? everyone's asking. But it DOES make sense.... (14-May-2008)
China walks Olympics / Darfur tightrope after Steven Spielberg resigns: Steven Spielberg's resignation earlier this week as artistic adviser to the 2008 Olympics... (23-Feb-08)
The BBC zings America for not sending troops to Darfur: Which do they want - intervention or non-intervention?... (23-Feb-08)
Post-election massacre in Kenya raises concerns of tribal war: Hundreds of people have been killed in ethnic violence since Monday,... (2-Jan-08)
President Jimmy Carter has near-altercation in Darfur: Generationally, Darfur is ten years ahead of Burma.... (5-Oct-07)
Still tilting at windmills, the UN will send "peacekeepers" to Darfur: What "peace" is there to keep in this massive crisis civil war?... (3-Aug-07)
Ban Ki Moon blames Darfur genocide on global warming: Damn! He's blaming the Darfur crisis civil war on America!!... (19-Jun-07)
Senator Joe Biden wants to move troops from Iraq to Darfur civil war: Saying on Meet the Press that we should remove troops from Iraqi "civil war,"... (29-Apr-07)
President Bush gives Sudan "one last chance" to end Darfur genocide: But is Steven Spielberg aiding the genocide?... (19-Apr-07)
U.N. Court blames Serbian people, but not country of Serbia, for 1995 Srebrenica genocide: This is the essence of a generational "crisis war."... (27-Feb-07)
Women's groups protest rape as a weapon of war in Darfur: As the civil war in Darfur continues to grow more violent,... (11-Dec-06)
Kofi Annan makes strongest statement yet on Darfur: The current world's only generational crisis war may be close to an explosive climax.... (12-Sep-06)
UN: Darfur became much worse "while we were watching Lebanon and Israel": Amnesty International reports that Sudan's new military buildup is precursor to a "catastrophe"... (29-Aug-06)
Fighting in Darfur has increased since a peace deal was signed in May.: Palestinians and Israelis will soon go the way of the people of Sudan and Darfur.... (7-Jul-06)
Survivors commemorate the genocidal 1995 Srebrenica massacre: After Rwanda, Srebrenica and Darfur, United Nations says "Never again" - again.... (12-Jul-05)
UN declares that Darfur war was "not genocide," in the most sickeningly cynical story of the year: If mass murders and rapes and forced relocation of millions of people isn't genocide, then what is?... (01-Feb-05)
Explosive conflict seems imminent in Darfur, Sudan: Large quantities of arms and ammunition have poured into Darfur in the last two weeks... (17-Dec-04)
The six most dangerous regions in the world today.: There are six regions that could lead the world into a new world war. NOTE: This article also contains a lengthy summary of the Generational Dynamics theory and Forecasting Methodology. (20-Nov-2004)
United Nations: Darfur falling into anarchy: The Sudan government is losing control of areas of Darfur,... (4-Nov-04)
Five African nations oppose intervention in Darfur: Many months ago, I said that the United Nations would never stop the Darfur genocide, which is a force of nature.... (19-Oct-04)
Today's slow-motion genocide in Darfur recalls the lightning quick genocide in Rwanda in 1994: Why do these things always seem to happen in Africa? Understanding Africa's geography explains why. (22-Aug-2004)
Jesse Jackson calls for sending American troops to Darfur: You see how it works? Everyone has a war they like.... (27-Jul-04)
Darfur saga like depraved game of musical chairs: As I've said before, I've gotten good at turning off my own feelings of horror... (19-Jul-04)
"We want to create a light-skinned baby.": That's what a raped black woman told Congressman Frank Wolf when he visited Darfur.... (8-Jul-04)
Darfur genocide: The UN is completely irrelevant: It was just three months ago that Kofi Annan said "never again," referring to the 1994 Rwanda genocide.... (28-Jun-04)

"You can't go! It's not on the program!" said Omar, the security chief.

"We're going anyway! You don't have the power to stop me!" said Carter.

In the end, the Sudanese did block his visit, and Carter was forced to leave.

Carter is on a fact-finding mission to Darfur with an entourage of "Elders," including billionaire businessman Richard Branson and Graca Machel, the wife of former South African President Nelson Mandela, and South Africa's Archbishop Desmond Tutu.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this whole effort by Carter is pretty silly. From time to time, various political figures -- Jimmy Carter, Jesse Jackson, Jane Fonda -- take trips to foreign countries, proclaiming that if we all just talk together, then we can get along. These trips are almost always just political side shows and, as far as I know, none of these trips has ever accomplished anything real.

On this web site, whenever I describe these major world events, I always emphasize that they're being caused by attitudes and behaviors of large masses of people, entire generations of people, and that no politician can ever hope to have an effect.

That's certainly true of the Darfur war, as I've described repeatedly on this web site, starting with my first Darfur article, "Darfur genocide: The UN is completely irrelevant."

In fact, not only has the U.N. not halted the Darfur genocide, but the situation seems to get worse almost on a daily basis.

In a recent article, I summarized the recent generational history of Darfur, correcting some common misstatements in the mainstream media.

The most important confusions in the mainstream media are the names given to the various group. So here's a summary of the major groups, and how their names have changed since the 1970s:

The "West," as represented mostly by the U.N., the U.S., and Europe, with no understanding of what a generational crisis war is, have been extremely na´ve in it's portrayal of what's been going on.

Here are some mistakes that Western politicians and journalists make all the time:

Actually, the situation is becoming increasingly complex and increasingly unstable.

A big sign of this occurred early this week when a large group of 'rebels' launched a genocidal attack on a group African Union "peacekeepers."

Western groups are totally perplexed by this. The "rebels" are supposed to be good guys, and they shouldn't be massacring "peacekeepers." The West's entire world view of the Darfur war is totally screwed up now.

But the situation is even worse than that. According to a new analysis on, both the "Arab" side and the "black rebel" side have split into warring ethnic groups. Here's a one-paragraph extract from the analysis, to give you a flavor:

"The black rebel movement was split from the beginning between the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (S.L.M./A.) and the Justice and Equality Movement (J.E.M.). The S.L.M./A. had the backing of the Fur, the largest of the black Muslim tribes in Darfur, through the leadership of Abdul Wahid al-Nur, as well as significant backing from the Zaghawa and Masalit tribes. Led by Khalil Ibrahim, the J.E.M. was a smaller, mostly Zaghawa operation made up of Islamists who were purged from the government in 1999. The group then received backing from the Chadian government and aligned itself with a separate rebel movement in Sudan's northeast, thus receiving support from Eritrea as well."

It's hard to know what the Western media and politicians are going to make of all this, once they get it figured out, assuming that they ever get it figured out.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, here's what's going on: The regeneracy was triggered on February 26, 2003, as described above. The word "regeneracy" is used because this is the point where an identity group's unity is "regenerated," for the first time since the end of the previous crisis war. Initially, it was just the Africans versus the Arabs, but as the years have passed and the war has become more and more genocidal, both of these sides have splintered further, and regeneracies of individual tribal and ethnic loyalties have also occurred.

Darfur versus Burma

Related Articles

Burma (Myanmar)
American aid ships are ordered to leave Burma's (Myanmar's) waters: Military junta is using cyclone devastation as cover for violent campaign against Karen minority.... (5-Jun-2008)
China requests foreign assistance for earthquake relief - cash only: It's likely that tens of thousands of people were killed on Monday... (12-May-2008)
Burma (Myanmar) junta is turning a natural disaster into a criminal catastrophe: Could it affect the Beijing summer Olympics?... (11-May-2008)
Cyclone Nargis could trigger violence in Burma (Myanmar): Burmese generals are placing obstacles in the way of international aid.... (8-May-2008)
China crushes protests by Buddhist monks in Tibet: The Dalai Lama, exiled in India since 1959, called for calm.... (16-Mar-08)
Burma (Myanmar) demonstrations fizzle after violent government response: Thousands of troops are exerting a massive stranglehold on the streets of Rangoon... (2-Oct-07)
Burma: Growing demonstrations by the "88 Generation" raise fears of new slaughter: At the UN, President Bush announced new sanctions on Burma (Myanmar),... (26-Sep-07)

We've been discussing the situation in Burma (Myanmar) during the last couple of weeks.

Here's the question: Why is the Burmese government so violent with protesting / demonstrating citizens?

Are Burmese government officials all such psychopaths that they get enjoyment out of seeing blood pouring out of the heads of harmless monks after being hit with clubs? When someone applies for a job in the Burmese government, do they give him a battery of psychological tests, and reject him if he isn't totally sadistic?

If you want to understand how Generational Dynamics works, you have to be able to understand the minds of people who commit acts that seem to be monstrous. The fact is, if you're unable to understand why Hitler and his lieutenants felt that was they were doing was perfectly reasonable and necessary, then you also can't understand why President Roosevelt felt that what he was doing was perfectly reasonable and necessary.

And everything is always driven by the previous crisis war. The survivors of a crisis war spend their entire lives doing everything possible to make sure that their own children will never have to suffer anything so horrible.

In America's case, when WW II ended, the survivors believed (incorrectly) that the war could have been prevented if they'd stopped Hitler in 1935. After the war, the survivors adopted the 'Truman Doctrine,' making America the "Policemen of the World." That's why we found the Korean and Vietnam wars, and why we're in Iraq today.

In "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the "88 Generation" raise fears of new slaughter," I summarized the previous crisis wars for Burma, and they were mostly dominated by ethnic civil wars. Burma's last crisis war was the civil war ending in 1958. That was an extremely bloody, genocidal war among Burmese ethnic groups, and today's Burmese government is determined that it shouldn't happen again.

Furthermore, the Burmese officials look a few thousand miles to the west, and they see what's happening in Darfur today: a growing civil war among Sudan's ethnic groups.

The Burmese officials actually LIVED through a multi-ethnic war like the one going in on Darfur, and they know very well that no "peacekeeping mission" is going to stop the Darfur war.

People like Jimmy Carter, as well as US, UN and European officials must look like total buffoons to Burmese officials. I can just imagine them saying to one another, "Those guys must be idiots to think that they can just go to Darfur and talk to a few people, and end a multi-ethnic civil war involving millions of people."

So the Burmese officials believe that they have no choice. The protests and demonstrations HAVE to be stopped AT ALL COSTS, to prevent a recurrence of the 1950s genocidal crisis civil war, even if it means killing some monks. In fact, in the disturbed minds of the Burmese officials, it's either kill a few monks or allow a mass genocide. If YOU had to make that choice, which choice would YOU make?

In fact, Burma is about ten years behind Darfur.

Ten years ago, Darfar was in a generational Unraveling era. At that time, the Janjaweed militia were merely a police force in Darfur, and there was nothing more than low-level violence.

Burma is still in a generational Unraveling era today, which is why the the protests and demonstrations fizzled out -- and why they would have fizzled out anyway, even if the government hadn't resorted to violence. If Burmese officials had understood that, then they would have known that no violence was necessary at this time.

And if Jimmy Carter and other "peacekeeping officials" understood what a crisis war is, then they might stop tilting at windmills. (5-Oct-07) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Web Log Summary - 2016
Web Log Summary - 2015
Web Log Summary - 2014
Web Log Summary - 2013
Web Log Summary - 2012
Web Log Summary - 2011
Web Log Summary - 2010
Web Log Summary - 2009
Web Log Summary - 2008
Web Log Summary - 2007
Web Log Summary - 2006
Web Log Summary - 2005
Web Log Summary - 2004

Web Log - December, 2016
Web Log - November, 2016
Web Log - October, 2016
Web Log - September, 2016
Web Log - August, 2016
Web Log - July, 2016
Web Log - June, 2016
Web Log - May, 2016
Web Log - April, 2016
Web Log - March, 2016
Web Log - February, 2016
Web Log - January, 2016
Web Log - December, 2015
Web Log - November, 2015
Web Log - October, 2015
Web Log - September, 2015
Web Log - August, 2015
Web Log - July, 2015
Web Log - June, 2015
Web Log - May, 2015
Web Log - April, 2015
Web Log - March, 2015
Web Log - February, 2015
Web Log - January, 2015
Web Log - December, 2014
Web Log - November, 2014
Web Log - October, 2014
Web Log - September, 2014
Web Log - August, 2014
Web Log - July, 2014
Web Log - June, 2014
Web Log - May, 2014
Web Log - April, 2014
Web Log - March, 2014
Web Log - February, 2014
Web Log - January, 2014
Web Log - December, 2013
Web Log - November, 2013
Web Log - October, 2013
Web Log - September, 2013
Web Log - August, 2013
Web Log - July, 2013
Web Log - June, 2013
Web Log - May, 2013
Web Log - April, 2013
Web Log - March, 2013
Web Log - February, 2013
Web Log - January, 2013
Web Log - December, 2012
Web Log - November, 2012
Web Log - October, 2012
Web Log - September, 2012
Web Log - August, 2012
Web Log - July, 2012
Web Log - June, 2012
Web Log - May, 2012
Web Log - April, 2012
Web Log - March, 2012
Web Log - February, 2012
Web Log - January, 2012
Web Log - December, 2011
Web Log - November, 2011
Web Log - October, 2011
Web Log - September, 2011
Web Log - August, 2011
Web Log - July, 2011
Web Log - June, 2011
Web Log - May, 2011
Web Log - April, 2011
Web Log - March, 2011
Web Log - February, 2011
Web Log - January, 2011
Web Log - December, 2010
Web Log - November, 2010
Web Log - October, 2010
Web Log - September, 2010
Web Log - August, 2010
Web Log - July, 2010
Web Log - June, 2010
Web Log - May, 2010
Web Log - April, 2010
Web Log - March, 2010
Web Log - February, 2010
Web Log - January, 2010
Web Log - December, 2009
Web Log - November, 2009
Web Log - October, 2009
Web Log - September, 2009
Web Log - August, 2009
Web Log - July, 2009
Web Log - June, 2009
Web Log - May, 2009
Web Log - April, 2009
Web Log - March, 2009
Web Log - February, 2009
Web Log - January, 2009
Web Log - December, 2008
Web Log - November, 2008
Web Log - October, 2008
Web Log - September, 2008
Web Log - August, 2008
Web Log - July, 2008
Web Log - June, 2008
Web Log - May, 2008
Web Log - April, 2008
Web Log - March, 2008
Web Log - February, 2008
Web Log - January, 2008
Web Log - December, 2007
Web Log - November, 2007
Web Log - October, 2007
Web Log - September, 2007
Web Log - August, 2007
Web Log - July, 2007
Web Log - June, 2007
Web Log - May, 2007
Web Log - April, 2007
Web Log - March, 2007
Web Log - February, 2007
Web Log - January, 2007
Web Log - December, 2006
Web Log - November, 2006
Web Log - October, 2006
Web Log - September, 2006
Web Log - August, 2006
Web Log - July, 2006
Web Log - June, 2006
Web Log - May, 2006
Web Log - April, 2006
Web Log - March, 2006
Web Log - February, 2006
Web Log - January, 2006
Web Log - December, 2005
Web Log - November, 2005
Web Log - October, 2005
Web Log - September, 2005
Web Log - August, 2005
Web Log - July, 2005
Web Log - June, 2005
Web Log - May, 2005
Web Log - April, 2005
Web Log - March, 2005
Web Log - February, 2005
Web Log - January, 2005
Web Log - December, 2004
Web Log - November, 2004
Web Log - October, 2004
Web Log - September, 2004
Web Log - August, 2004
Web Log - July, 2004
Web Log - June, 2004

Copyright © 2002-2016 by John J. Xenakis.