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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Sep-06
Kofi Annan makes strongest statement yet on Darfur

Web Log - September, 2006

Kofi Annan makes strongest statement yet on Darfur

The current world's only generational crisis war may be close to an explosive climax.

Like Tony Blair (see next Weblog item below), Kofi Annan has always struck me as a man in total denial. But he lacks Blair's bubbling optimism. Annan is always filled with extreme sadness, as if he carries the weight of the world on his shoulders. It almost makes me think that, unlike most politicians, Annan actually understands what's coming.

This was all apparent in Kofi Anna's Monday statement to the U.N. Security Council on Darfur, in which he described the current situation:

"We have all heard the latest, deeply dismaying reports of renewed fighting, particularly in North Darfur, among the various factions. Thousands of Sudan Armed Forces troops have been deployed to the area, in clear violation of the Darfur Peace Agreement. Even worse, the area has been subjected to renewed aerial bombing. I strongly condemn this escalation. The Government should stop its offensive immediately and refrain from any further such action. ... Once again, people have been displaced. The total number of displaced now stands at 1.9 million. Nearly 3 million people in Darfur depend on international aid for food, shelter and medical treatment."

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As I've said many times, Darfur is in a "generational crisis war," the only one currently in progress in the world. Generational Dynamics predicts that it's no more possible to stop a generational crisis war than it is to stop a tsunami. The reason is that a crisis war is fueled by large masses of people, rather than by politicians, and when large masses of people are determined to commit genocide on another group of people, the flood of energy cannot be stopped.

Kofi Annan has always expressed enormous distress that the U.N. did nothing to stop the 1994 Rwanda crisis war, and he referred to that in his statement:

"As access gets harder, the humanitarian gains of the past two years are being rolled back. Unless security improves, we face the prospect of having to drastically curtail an acutely needed humanitarian operation. Can we, in conscience, leave the people of Darfur to such a fate? Can the international community, having not done enough for the people of Rwanda in their time of need, just watch as this tragedy deepens? Having finally agreed just one year ago that there is a responsibility to protect, can we contemplate failing yet another test? Lessons are either learned or not; principles are either upheld or scorned. This is no time for the middle ground of half-measures or further debate."

Annan's words are sadly funny: "Lessons are either learned or not." Unfortunately, the correct lesson is that generational crisis wars are raw acts of nature that can't be stopped; but that isn't the lesson that Annan was referring to.

Annan strongly condemned the government of Sudan which is accused of leading the genocide, in a veiled threat of an accusation of war crimes:

"Once again, therefore, I urge the Government of Sudan to embrace the spirit of resolution 1706, to give its consent to the transition, and to pursue the political process with new energy and commitment. The consequences of the Government's current attitude -- yet more death and suffering, perhaps on a catastrophic scale -- will be felt first and foremost by the people of Darfur. But the Government itself will also suffer, if it fails in its sacred responsibility to protect its own people. It will suffer opprobrium and disgrace -- in the eyes of all Africa, and the whole international community. Moreover, neither those who decide such policies, nor those who carry them out, should imagine that they will not be held accountable."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the war in Darfur appears to be reaching a climax.

Crisis civil wars tend to run a certain course. They begin as low-level violence that can go on for years or even decades. There might even be a cessation of fighting for periods of time. This is what's happened in Sri Lanka, for example. The violence between the Sinhalese (Buddhist) and the Tamil tiger rebels (Hindu) began in 1976. It continued as low-level violence until a peace agreement was signed in 2002. The peace treaty unraveled last year, and now Sri Lanka appears to be approaching a full-scale crisis civil war, though it hasn't yet reached that point.

Once the full-scale crisis war begins, it continues to build to an explosive climax of some kind. In WW II, for example, the explosive climax was the use of nuclear weapons.

Now, based on Kofi Annan's description, the war in Darfur appears to be approaching a climax. Sudan is expelling aid organizations, and appears to be preparing for full scale war against the people of Darfur.

The timing of such an explosive climax cannot, of course, be predicted. But if the current news reports are accurate, then we may be about to see a genocidal explosion that will exceed both the Rwanda genocide and the Bosnian genocide of the 1990s. (12-Sep-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Sep-06 Kofi Annan makes strongest statement yet on Darfur

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Sep-06
Kofi Annan makes strongest statement yet on Darfur