	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Sep-05
In a new bizarre move, North Korea demands an end to U.N. food aid

Web Log - September, 2005

In a new bizarre move, North Korea demands an end to U.N. food aid

The famine-stricken country officially told the UN World Food Program (WFP) to stop food aid within the next few months. They said that they expect good harvests of their own this year, and that private donations of food will make up any difference. They also accused the U.S. of politicizing food aid by linking it to human rights violations, a charge with the State Department denies. North Korea is asking that food aid be replaced with "development work" aid.

Food aid is actually a controversial issue in general. Food aid to a country lowers the price of food in that country, making it harder to encourage local farmers to do more. But there are other issues as well.

North Korea receives private donations of food from both South Korea and China. But there are big differences in implementation between them and the UN WFP. When the WFP distributes food aid, it has dozens of inspectors that do hundreds of spot checks to make sure that the food is being distributed honestly. But South Korea and China simply give the food aid with almost no spot checks at all. They feel that they have to, because otherwise their neighbor will destabilize and affect them.

So I hope you get this. North Korea doesn't like the WFP's meddling, so they cut off food aid, "knowing" that this will force China and South Korea to increase food aid without meddling, since they presumably have no choice.

This has generated political turmoil in South Korea. An opposition legislator in Seoul said the WFP now faces expulsion from Pyongyang because of what she called Seoul's "indiscreet" provision of food. If South Korea is pressured to substantially increase its food aid, then the political repercussions will increase.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, North and South Korea are headed for a violent war of reunification, and the most likely scenario is that it will be launched preemptively by North Korea, led by North Korean President Kim Jong-il. This might happen next month, next year, or soon thereafter.

In attempting to discern Kim's plans, all we can do is look at what Pyongyang says and does.

The problem is that Kim has been getting increasingly erratic for the last couple of years. Starting in 2003, Pyongyang has claimed that the U.S. was about to attack North Korea preemptively, and Kim has taken a number of hostile steps, including mobilizing for war. Starting a few months go, North Korea began blocking all international communications, confiscating 20,000 cell phones and shutting down the internet for most citizens.

In the last couple of months, Pyongyang seemed to be getting less confrontational, and even agreed, last weekend,to discontinue its nuclear weapons program. However, they repudiated that agreement the next day, and once again accused the U.S. of plotting a nuclear attack.

This new announcement, canceling UN food aid, adds to the country's isolation and instability.

According to the UN, the cancelation could cause the death by starvation of hundreds of thousands of people this winter, including 125,000 children.

As regular readers know, I've felt for some time that a preemptive attack by North Korea could occur at any time. This view is based simply on North Korea's statements and actions. The constant claims that the U.S. is planning a nuclear attack on North Korea prepares the population for a preemptive attack on South Korea or Japan; and the increasing isolation, which Kim is implementing in every way possible, permits military mobilization, including nuclear weapons development, to continue in secret.

A starving population is the most dangerous force in the world, especially during a generational crisis period, since it can lead to a violent uprising and civil war. South Korea and China know that, of course, and that's the reason why they've been providing unregulated food aid to North Korea; any problem in North Korea would create a massive refugee problem.

But food aid unregulated by the UN is going to mean increased politicization -- i.e., politically favored groups will get more food than others -- and once winter sets in, violent unrest among starving masses could increase. Kim can't prevent the unrest, but does have the power to deflect it somewhat by declaring war on Seoul and Tokyo -- and Washington. That's why I continue to believe that a preemptive war by North Korea could happen at any time. (26-Sep-05) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Sep-05 In a new bizarre move, North Korea demands an end to U.N. food aid

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Sep-05
In a new bizarre move, North Korea demands an end to U.N. food aid