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	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Jun-05
North Korea is blocking all international communications

Web Log - June, 2005

North Korea is blocking all international communications

Continuing its war mobilization that began early last year, North Korea is moving aggressively to prevent its citizens from making international calls. It has cut 90% of its 970 international phone lines, and has confiscated 20,000 cell phones. The Internet has been all but shut down.

Ironically, the use of cell phones and the internet was considered by by many observers to be an important sign that personal and economic freedom was finally increasing in the Stalinist country. In particular, the cell phones permitted family members in the North and South to talk to one another for the first time in fifty years.

The Kim Jong-il government had been permitting a great deal of freedom in phone use since cell phones were introduced in 2002. But on April 24 of last year, there was a huge train explosion in Ryongchon province near the Chinese border, and Pyongyang was shocked by how quickly the details of the explosion became known around the world -- thanks to Korean citizens using their cell phones to call across the Chinese border!

Officials investigating the train explosion became convinced that the train explosion was an attempted plot to assassinate Kim, and that a cell phone was used to detonate the explosives.

The cell phone confiscation began at that time, but now Pyongyang has cut almost all international phone lines, with the result that North Koreans have almost no contact with the outside world.

Analysts believe that the phone cutoff is related to the Pyongyang claim that the U.S. will attack North Korea preemptively, and then North Korean citizens would be able to pass confidential information to the Americans. "Since a preemptive strike scenario surfaced in 2003, North Korea has been in a semi-state of war, and it is likely to continue until the six-party talks resume," said Jung Chang-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Kookmin University.

However, this all comes at a time when North Korea is facing the worst food shortages in years, and is facing a possible famine.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 30-May-2005

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 2

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 1

China 2 North Korea 3

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, North Korea is in a "generational crisis" period, and a war to reunite Korea is a near 100% certainty.

A severe food shortage is exactly the kind of event that could trigger such a war during a generational crisis period. A famine would cause enormous unrest by citizens infuriated at the Kim government, and the government would redirect the citizens' passions against their hated enemies, America and Japan, who would be blamed for the fact that the North and South are still separated.

If Kim were going to invade South Korea soon, then cutting off international phone service would be the right thing to do in preparation. That doesn't mean that an early invasion is planned, but it's a possibility.

Generational Dynamics predicts that North Korea will preemptively launch a war to reunify South and North Korea under Kim's control. This war will engulf the region, including Japan, China and America. It could start next week, next month or next year, but it's certain. (10-Jun-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Jun-05 North Korea is blocking all international communications

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Jun-05
North Korea is blocking all international communications