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	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Sep-04
Russia and Israel cooperating against terrorism

Web Log - September, 2004

Russia and Israel cooperating against terrorism

The most unpopular politician in the world is George Bush, but Vladimir Putin and Ariel Sharon are close behind.

The reasons are similar in all cases. All three politicians have been very aggressive in response to major terrorist attacks. President Bush initiated wars in Afghanistan and Iraq after the 9/11 attacks. Ariel Sharon has announced a "disengagement" policy, and is implementing it by building a barrier separating Israel from the Palestinian lands around it.

And Putin has promised preemptive revenge against international terrorists, following the recent series of terrorist attacks in Russian, including the incident in Beslan, North Ossetia, that killed hundreds of people, almost half of them children. These threats have alarmed the entire Eastern Asian region, including Georgia, Turkey, and Roumania. Many Western countries have called on Putin to negotiate with the Chechen terrorists; Putin has angrily rejected these suggestions, and suggested sarcastically that America should start negotiating with Osama bin Laden.

As a practical matter, only America has the power, the technology, the forces and the bases to strike at international terrorists around the world. Russia simply does not have that kind of reach.

But now, it appears more and more that America, Russia and Israel are coming together on the subject of terrorism.

Israel has sent anti-terrorism experts to Russia, and the two countries are dicussing even closer cooperation.

America has been critical of Putin's power grab in the past, but in his speech to the United Nations yesterday, President Bush appeared to side with Putin.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these changes are significant because they show how the countries of the world are choosing sides in the coming "clash of civilizations" world war.

As a separate issue, James Wolfensohn, president of the World Bank, is going against the grain and supporting Putin. He questions the attacks on Putin's motives, saying, "I think Russia is a pretty difficult place to run, and so I wouldn't come to that conclusion too quickly."

The head of the World Bank is more motivated by economic concerns than by political concerns, so Wolfensohn's support of Putin is not surprising.

This comes at a time when the Fed has increased short term interest rates. However, as discussed in yesterday's analysis of the flattening yield curve, long-term interest rates are falling significantly as short-term rates are rising, indicating an increastingly troubling level of public debt. (22-Sep-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Sep-04 Russia and Israel cooperating against terrorism

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Sep-04
Russia and Israel cooperating against terrorism