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Web Log - April, 2020


27-Apr-20 World View -- CNBC's Jim Cramer: Hostility to China grows in America

Growing evidence of China's malicious behavior in spreading pandemic

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from

CNBC's Jim Cramer: Hostility to China grows in America

WHO's January 14 tweet stating that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission and community spread.  The Chinese had already known for six weeks that there was human-to-human transmission and community spread.  This tweet was a global disaster, because it lulled many countries into complacency.
WHO's January 14 tweet stating that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission and community spread. The Chinese had already known for six weeks that there was human-to-human transmission and community spread. This tweet was a global disaster, because it lulled many countries into complacency.

A lengthy rant by CNBC's Jim Cramer shows several aspects of how world opinion toward China is growing increasingly negative, starting with the US-China trade dispute, and more so with the Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) issue. A growing minority consider the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to be a criminal organization.

Cramer's rant was directed at China's reaction to a failed drug trial by the California company Gilead Sciences.

Gilead is one of dozens of American companies that are working to develop vaccines, treatments, therapeutics or even a cure for the Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19). Gilead has an existing antiviral treatment product, Remdesivir, that has been used to treat Ebola patients. In March, the FDA approved testing the drug for Covid-19 patients.

Gilead went to a great deal of trouble to get approval for a test of Covid-19 patients in China. The trial was ended last week, after being inconclusive. Chinese officials responded by trashing Gilead, trashing the trial, and getting the World Health Organization (WHO) to do the same. WHO was forced to retract its statement. Gilead issued a statement saying that the trial was ended because enrollment was too low, and said, "the study results are inconclusive, though trends in the data suggest a potential benefit for remdesivir, particularly among patients treated early in disease." Gilead accused China of posting "inappropriate characterizations of the study."

CNBC's principal commentator Jim Cramer commented on this situation on Friday morning with an extended rant (my transcription):

"And I thought it you listen to [Dr. Scott Gottlieb], you would conclude only one thing: That the Chinese have done very bad job in the way that they've handled us. And I've always felt that Remdesivir would help if you get it early enough. ... I think that the Chinese have been horrendous. And I think that the WHO has been horrendous, and I think that the combination of the two [China and WHO] against Gilead and the assault against Gilead [is horrendous]. And here's a company [Gilead] that's done its absolute best like many American companies, and I don't understand the animus of China to our own companies, other than the fact they regard us as a cold war opponent. ...

The reason that I'm discouraged about the Chinese is we have so many great things that are going on here by fantastic people who are really doing great things, and all we ever get from the Chinese is frankly a country that looks down upon us. They're number one, and they're the great power, and we're being treated by them and our companies are being treated by them with the greatest disrespect.

... That's how they treat us. Why does anyone say that?

I sat there and listened to what they [the Chinese] did with Gilead. First they said they didn't do the test, cause it couldn't get finished. Then suddenly they leak to the WHO saying how bad it is. Then it's pulled from WHO. In the meantime, all Gilead is doing, AND FOR FREE, is to try to come up with something that when you start early might work. And the disrespect [from China] is widely accepted [by the media]. Maybe Trump is a hot button [to the media]. But not the Chinese. The Chinese are revered. My father worked for the Chinese. God love them, they were nice to my father. Have you ever seen anyone just look down upon us, and say that we don't know what we're doing? Even the Soviet Union respected us from 47 to 87. They respected us. But -- What do they [the Chinese] think of us that they could treat us like this. And our drug companies? How many Nobel Prizes have they won?

... That's just the way I feel. You and I know that this idea that we're a fifth rate power and they would treat Ecuador better than us, and you saw Ecuador in the papers today."

I quoted Cramer's rant at length because I want to use it to make serveral points.

China's love for Ecuador

Let's start with the easiest one -- the reference to Ecuador.

Ecuador's infestation of Covid-19 is a mess, with many streets filled with bodies of dead people. That's the reason that Ecuador has been in the papers, but that isn't the reason that China loves Ecuador.

Thanks to China's "debt trap diplomacy," Ecuador owes $6.5 billion to China. In return, Ecuador is China's slave. China has deployed a massive surveillance spy system in Ecuador, the ECU-911 system, that can spy on all citizens, and sends its data back to China's military. By the way, similar systems have been sold to Venezuela, Bolivia and Angola. So that explains why China loves Ecuador. ( "13-Oct-19 World View -- Ecuador's president Moreno imposes curfew after 10 days of violent protests")

The Chinese master race

Jim Cramer is confused about why the CCP is so disrespectful of Americans and American companies. "I don't understand the animus of China to our own companies, other than the fact they regard us as a cold war opponent," says Cramer.

No, that isn't the reason at all. In fact, the Chinese do not see this situation as a "cold war." They see it as a prelude to a hot war.

China is unique as having an extremely racist view of themselves as superior to everyone else.

America is a "melting pot" of many races. Americans know that, and don't consider themselves to be some sort of superior race or master race. Instead, Americans see themselves as ordinary people who were lucky enough to be born in the greatest country in history. Most countries have similar views of their own people.

But not the Chinese. They are unique in a highly racist way, as I described in my book, "War Between China and Japan." Since ancient times, the Chinese have viewed the universe in three layers: The highest layer is the Kingdom of Heaven. The second layer is China, the Master Race, the Middle Kingdom -- yellow race, black hair, brown eyes, yellow skin. And the bottom layer is everyone else, the rest of us, the barbarians. The Chinese culture views the Chinese as a Master Race, superior to all other races. Even Hitler's Master Race Nazi attitude was not as bad, because it only survived a couple of decades. But the Chinese Master Race attitude has been firmly entrenched in the Chinese culture literally for millennia.

China's government, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), considers itself superior to all other governments, and not bound by international law, or any international agreements that it has signed. To the CCP, joining the United Nations or the World Health Organization (WHO) or the World Trade Organization (WTO) or any international organization does not require China to abide by any commitments. The CCP considers itself superior to the organization, and is simply using the organization as a way of controlling and exploiting the barbarians for the benefit of the CCP.

So that's why the Chinese love Ecuador. To the Chinese, Ecuadorians are like cute little poodles that are controlled and monitored by the CCP masters, and who do as their CCP masters tell them. Who wouldn't love to be masters of a country of cute little poodles? But the CCP hates Americans because we aren't obedient poodles, and because we constantly prove that we're better than they are. As Cramer asks, "How many Nobel Prizes have they won?"

So this isn't some simple economic competition, or even a simple military competition. America's superiority to China is a definitive challenge to Confucius and to China's entire racist Master Race culture.

So Jim Cramer had no idea why the Chinese treat Americans with such enormous contempt, but if he reads this, then he'll finally know.

Global views of China continue to turn increasingly negative

Cramer's rant illustrates more and more widely held views that China is not a friend, but an enemy.

Americans have always had a friendly positive view of China. We helped them in World War I, and we saved them in WW II. Even when Mao Zedong was starving and murdering tens of millions of Chinese in the Great Leap Forward, even when the CCP was slaughtering thousands of peaceful young students in the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, it made little difference -- Americans loved China.

According to Pew Research, this changed sharply in 2011, when Xi Jinping came to power, as shown by this chart.

American positive and negative views of China, 2005-2020 (Pew Research)
American positive and negative views of China, 2005-2020 (Pew Research)

Views became less unfavorable in 2016-17, but then unfavorable views surged in 2018 with the trade dispute, and recently with the Covid-19 issue.

This change is even more pronounced by the people of India, who believe that China’s opacity and mismanagement is to blame for the global pandemic, according to a survey conducted by The Takshashila Institution in Bangalore, India. According to the survey:

According to a study of Indian social media, Indians are angry at China and the World Health Organization (WHO) for their mishandling of the pandemic, and they praise the efficiency and transparency of Taiwan's response.

I haven't seen any surveys of Chinese attitudes towards Americans and Indians, but it would seem likely that those attitudes are becoming more negative as well.

Growing evidence of China's malicious behavior in spreading pandemic

Evidence is growing that the CCP purposely took steps to spread the pandemic to other countries, and used the World Health Organization as a tool to do this. The motive was that China did not want to be the only country in the world experiencing a pandemic, and wanted to make sure that the pandemic spread to the US and other countries.

First, there's the question of where the virus came from. There are three theories:

The first of these theories is almost universally rejected, and there are investigations underway to determine which of the latter two theories is correct. However, it doesn't really matter too much which it is.

What matters now and what's important now is the CCP's actions once the virus started spreading in Wuhan. The circumstantial evidence points clearly, almost beyond a reasonable doubt, to the conclusion that the CCP purposely spread the virus around the world.

I've listened to several interviews on the BBC and elsewhere of Chinese officials being asked about these charges. These Chinese officials are really mealy-mouthed. They never try to explain their actions, but just blame everything on Trump, even though every country on the planet is going to suffer because of China's actions. It's proof of how stupid the CCP thugs are, if they think that we're so stupid we believe what they're saying.

I always say that the CCP officials are the dumbest bunch of thugs imaginable. You never know how they're going to handle a situation, but you can always be certain that they'll handle it in such a way as to make it worse. They've certainly done that in this situation.

The CCP thugs apparently believe that they can talk their way out of this, just as they've tried to talk their way out of their illegal annexation of the South China Sea or their genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslim Uighurs and Kazakhs in East Turkestan (Xinjiang province). The CCP thugs are unable to grasp how dangerous the situation is, as the people of the world increasingly view the CCP as a criminal organization. This will not go well for anybody.

A thousand ways to end the lockouts

It now appears that we'll have to continue using face masks, "social distancing" and other containment methods until early 2022. The world will be a very different place by then, even more so if there's a war with China before then.

There are now about 3 million cases and 200,000 deaths worldwide, with almost 100,000 cases and almost 55,000 deaths in the United States.

If you're willing to step back from the horror of that many deaths, and look at the big picture, then there are some interesting experiments going on.

There are 50 states in the US, and there are countries and provinces around the world. So let's say that there are 500 different regions.

Then there are 500 different experiments going on for dealing with the virus. Some started lockdowns early, some later, and others had no lockdowns at all. Different lockdowns permitted different kinds of activities, whether buying groceries or jogging alone in the park, provided that "social distancing" and face mask rules are followed.

Now they're starting to end the lockdowns. Some are doing it early, some doing it quickly, some doing it later, some doing it slowly. Some will fail, and there will be a new resurgence of cases, and all the accomplishments of the lockdown will be lost.

That means that by the end of the summer, we're going to have a great deal of data and information on what works and what doesn't. It's widely expected that there will be a "second wave" of the pandemic in the fall, and in that case, all the data collected from these 500 experiments will be used to deal with the virus much more effectively than in the first wave.

So I'm going to call this "good news." People are always complaining that I post nothing but bad news, but this is one piece of good news: If there's a "second wave" in the fall, then we'll know how to handle it effectively, based on the experience of these 500 experiments.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99


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19-Apr-20 World View -- How three major 20th century crises are merging into a single mega-crisis today

The Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) hoax

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from

Three crises merge: pandemic, stock market bubble, war

Morgan Stanley Research: Project timeline and milestones for a return to work in the US (ZeroHedge)
Morgan Stanley Research: Project timeline and milestones for a return to work in the US (ZeroHedge)

In the past week, president Donald Trump has announced on Thursday a plan for "opening up" the American economy on a rolling basis, starting in May and continuing until a vaccine is found.

In the past week, several pharmaceutical companies have announced development of Covid-19 vaccines and treatments, raising hopes that the virus will be defeated by the fall, even though every medical expert I've heard says that 12-18 months will be required to perform all the testing phases before a new vaccine can be deployed.

In the past week, the stock market has swung upward, giving investors the hope that "the bottom has been reached," after a period where investors have been whiplashed by wild swings.

In the past week, several ongoing conflicts in the Mideast, Africa and Asia have become frozen because of fear of a "coronavirus tsunami," leading some people to hope that the Covid-19 crisis will end wars for a while. However, China and other countries have taken advantage of international pandemic distraction to launch military actions.

Each of these changes gives hope that the end of the Covid-19 crisis is sight, at least in the distance.

However, if you want to understand what's going on today, you have to understand that we don't have three or four different sets of problems (virus, stock market, real economy, global tensions) that can be solved independently.

The situation is almost infinitely more complex than that, but what we're seeing is the three major Western crises of the 20th century all merging into a single interlocking crisis today.

The three major cataclysmic Western crises of the 20th century are as follows:

In the 20th century, these crises occurred ten years apart, giving the world a chance to recover from one before having to deal with another.

But today, all three of these cataclysmic crises are occurring simultaneously. In addition, the WW I and WW II fault lines and timelines have been combined. Whether one of the currently "frozen" conflicts will eventually spiral into WW III is a matter of speculation.

The world is a complex system, where everything interlocks with everything else. So if two or more crises occur simultaneously, they interact with one another. When government officials try to deal with one crisis, they're hindered by problems with the other crises. So today's economic crisis will be much worse than the Great Depression, and World War III will be much worse than WW I and WW II combined.

Returning to work -- the timeline

On Thursday, president Trump announced a framework for opening up the US economy and returning to work. The framework is "data driven," and since the data can differ from state to state or region to region, the timeline will differ from region to region.

The chart at the beginning of this article was created by Morgan Stanley several days ago, so it doesn't precisely align with Trump's Thursday announcement. But it's close enough to serve as a reference model for discussion.

One issue highlighted by this chart is the date when a vaccine is broadly available. The chart assumes March 2021, which is a bit on the optimistic side, in view of what I've heard from experts.

Another issue highlighted by this chart is the "Potential Second Wave of Infections," starting in the fall, though it's not reflected in the "Daily New Cases" dark blue line. Scientists have already identified several minor mutations, with America's west coast dealing with the "Chinese virus," while the east coast dealing with the "European mutation."

The chart ignores the consequences of a significant mutation. In the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, the flu virus mutated over the summer into something much more virulent, resulting in far more deaths in the fall.

So the chart, like Trump's announced plan, might be called the "base scenario." It assumes that a lot of things will go right, but it's fragile, in that if one the assumptions is even partially wrong, then it could result in major changes to the plan.

So this chart, and Trump's plan, assume that a vaccine will be available in a year or a little later, which corresponds to the statements by experts. They also assume that any "second wave" can be controlled quickly, as Dr. Anthony Fauci on Trump's coronavirus team has promised, using experience gathered from the the first wave.

However, the biggest omissions in this chart, and in Trump's announced plan, is that there is no recognition of the other major crises that I've listed above -- a stock market crisis and a war crisis.

Potential stock market crisis

As regular Generational Dynamics readers are well aware, the stock market is in a huge bubble, with stocks far overpriced. By contrast, stocks were far underpriced in 1918 at the time of the Spanish Flu pandemic.

The S&P 500 price earnings ratio can tell us whether stocks are overpriced or underpriced. The historic average of the P/E ratio is 14. Here are the three values relevant to the current discussion:

This is an illustration of what I mean by simultaneous crises today.

There was no stock market bubble in 1918, the time of the Spanish Flu, and it was literally almost impossible to have a stock market panic at that time. The bubble grew during the 1920s, and burst ten years later, in the 1929 stock market crash. So the Spanish Flu crisis and the stock market crisis were ten years apart.

But today, the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is occurring SIMULTANEOUSLY with a huge stock market bubble. With the market far overpriced in a bubble, a panic could occur at any time.

This doesn't mean that a stock market panic must necessarily occur, but it means that the probability is high that it will occur. This is in contrast to 1918, when a stock market panic was almost impossible.

The timelines in the Morgan Stanley chart above, as in Trump's announced plan, assume that there will be no stock market panic. This means that the plans assume that funds will be available to pay for all the testing and bailouts and loans and unemployment benefits. Any sane person reading news must be as shocked as I am these days to see the government distribute trillions of dollars in newly "printed" money, as if they were distributing marbles. This is tied into the current economic fad, "Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)" that I'll describe below.

Potential war crisis

As regular Generational Dynamics readers are well aware, most of the world is in a generational Crisis era, with high levels of xenophobia and nationalism in almost every nation. This means that most countries, including China, Japan, Turkey, Russia, the EU, the United States, and many others have no fear of war, have no hesitation to set "red lines" or to cross other countries' "red lines," without understanding that such actions can quickly spiral into major wars.

This was not the case for Western nations in 1918, since World War I was just finishing up, and everyone was war-weary. This is an enormous difference between 1918 and today.

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.

Furthermore, as I've written in the past, China does not want a war with the US. However, China is planning a war of extermination against Japan, in revenge for Japan's atrocities in World War II, and also a war of annexation against Taiwan. China is developing a huge arsenal of missiles and ships to attack the United States because the Chinese know that the US will defend Japan and Taiwan when they're attacked by China.

Those interested in understanding the dynamics of China's plans should read my book, "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019 Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99

So we have war tensions growing in many places in the world, during this generational Crisis era. It's impossible to predict how the Covid-19 pandemic is affecting whatever war plans might be in progress in any of these countries. In the Mideast, we're seeing some ongoing conflicts in Syria and Yemen frozen in place because of the Covid-19 pandemic threat. On the other hand, there are reports that China is taking belligerent actions in the South China Sea and East China Sea in order to take advantage of how the Covid-19 pandemic has distracted the United States.

A decision to go to war during a generational Crisis era is a "chaotic event" (in the sense of Chaos Theory), which means something trivial (like a butterfly flapping its wings) could affect the nature or the time of the decision to go to war. The Covid-19 pandemic is not a trivial event, of course, but the same principle can apply. So if we apply that reasoning to China, then the pandemic may cause the CCP thugs to say, "We'd better wait a while longer to make sure the army is OK," or it may cause the CCP thugs to say, "Since Japan is flat on its back from the pandemic, now is the time to strike." It could go either way.

The source and course of the pandemic in China

This is a brief summary of the accusations being directed against China as the source of the pandemic. These are important because they may play a role in the anger and xenophobia directed against China, and in the defensiveness and xenophobia directed by China against other countries.

It's now widely accepted that China could have used standard containment measures (contact tracing and isolation) to stamp out Covid-19 fairly quickly in December. Instead, the CCP censored all news and social media reports of the growing danger, and forced the doctor, Dr. Li Wenlian, who had identified and reported about the virus, to sign a phony confession. Dr. Li died of the disease himself, and other doctors were "disappeared."

China repeatedly censored any reports of the virus, and denied that there was any human-to-human transmission for weeks. China's claims would not have been believed, since China lies about everything, but Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director of the World Health Organization (WHO), vouched for China's lies.

These lies lulled many countries, in Europe, Asia and the United States, into a sense of complacency. If it hadn't been for those lies, the pandemic would have been far less severe, because the US and other countries would have started reacting much sooner.

There are some additional issues:

As things stand, many nations are facing the pandemic because China censored the facts and lied about them. If it turns out that China did so on purpose, in order to infect other nations, then some of those nations might consider it an act of war.

All the actual facts will be coming out over the next few weeks.

The economists and analysts

I listen all the time to economists and financial analysts on CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Wall St Journal and elsewhere, often described as "reknowned" or "legendary." These people are idiots. They have no particular skills at explaining or forecasting the economy than any random seven-year-old child. Their only skill is to dress up their own political biases or their firm's sales pitches into words that will get them on TV.

There are so many examples. One was the housing bubble in the mid-2000s decade. That there was a housing bubble was obvious, to me and to others, as early as 2004, when Alan Greenspan said there was a housing bubble. But for years the "experts" on CNBC and in the Wall Street Journal kept saying that "Housing prices can't go down -- people have to live somewhere," and "Banks won't foreclose -- it's not in their interest to do so" and "These housing construction firms know what they're doing, and they wouldn't be building houses if it were just a bubble."

It wasn't until 2009 that I heard a tv analyst talk about a housing bubble -- they said that it had occurred several years earlier. These "reknowned" or "legendary" experts only recognized the housing bubble long after it had burst. That's why I call them idiots -- they can't even see the most obvious things.

Economists are no different from politicians, and I see this all the time. SAT scores have been plummeting since the Boomers were in school. Since then, it became fashionable to major in idiotic subjects like sociology or women's studies, and then call yourself an "expert." You can see this in politicans, in computer programmers, and in economists.

Another example, which I've written about many times, is that economists are unable to explain the tech bubble that occurred in the late 1990s -- why it occurred at all and why it didn't occur ten years earlier or later. The economist idiots just say, "Oh, it's because of the internet," which is no explanation at all, especially since it doesn't explain why it didn't happen in the 1980s, when millions of programmers were developing PC software in the basements.

As Generational Dynamics readers are well aware, the 1990s tech bubble occurred at exactly the time the survivors of the 1929 stock market crash and Great Depression all disappeared (retired or died). As long as they were in charge, as they were in the 1980s, PC software investments were made with care. But when their children were in charge, starting in the 1990s, internet software investments were made with reckless abandon.

Those concepts are beyond the grasp of economists and analysts, because understanding it requires more knowledge than you get in fourth grade. So they're simply incapable of understanding this.

The Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) hoax

Economists and analysts may not have any knowledge beyond the fourth grade, but that doesn't stop them from becoming drug addicts. And for today's economists, the cocaine-like addiction drug is known as "The Modern Monetary Theory" (MMT).

In centuries past, when Kings wanted to "print money," they actually had to run some sort of printing press. But not today. Today, anyone can "print money" simply by creating and issuing bonds. The US government "prints money" by selling Treasury bonds.

When Barack Obama took office, the national debt was $10.6 trillion. When Donald Trump took office, the national debt was $19.9 trillion. But this year, the government is going on a massive spending spree. There was a $2.1 trillion bailout bill, and there are more bailouts and infrastructure programs planned. The total national debt will go to around $27 trillion.

So doesn't that debt have to be repaid? The magic of MMT says that it doesn't.

Here are the elements of MMT:

You read this, and you might think it's something out of a comic book, but it's considered serious economic theory today (though controversial).

The first fallacy is that the government would raise taxes to control the hyperinflation. That's ridiculous. Neither Democrats nor Republicans would ever agree to such a tax increase, and decades of history prove that's true.

The biggest fallacy of all in MMT is that it causes inflation or hyperinflation. That's not what happens in a generational Crisis era, like today, when almost everyone is in debt. Today the country and the world are in a classic deflationary spiral, and anyone counting on inflation is going to be badly hurt.

MMT is the ultimate form of drug addiction.

It's like a drug addict who has already lost his home, his family and his job, and who needs to take more and more drugs to feel ok. Taking more and more drugs only postpones and worsens the problems he has to face, but it may be the best choice for the time being because it postpones the problems he has to face. In the meantime, he keeps hope alive. Maybe he'll win a $10 million lottery, so he'll be able to use the money to get off drugs, and get his home and family back. Keep taking drugs, and keep hope alive as long as possible. If something can't go on forever, then it won't.

So that's why so many economists and politicians hope for and predict inflation. Just as a drug addict might hope for winning the lottery, economists and politicians hope for hyperinflation, which is their version of winning the lottery, since hyperinflation wipes out debt. It's a dream fantasy.

When people have tons of money, then they buy lots of things, creating inflation.

But people have NO money today. They have the opposite. Instead of tons of money, they have tons of debt, which is the opposite. They have tons of interlocking debt.

They do not have the money to spend or the desire to spend, so there won't be hyperinflation. You have a clue what's going on when the federal government is tying its bailouts to requirements to spend. If the government has to force people to spend there won't be inflation. If people won't spend, then there'll be deflation, the opposite of inflation.

The way the economy will fail is when somebody's margin call or somebody's bankruptcy triggers a chain reaction of debt payment failures. That's what a deflationary spiral is, as one bankruptcy triggers another one. This is what I used to refer to as the Principle of Maximum Ruin: The maximum number of people are ruined to the maximum extent possible. Inflation is a fantasy.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics theory, hyperinflation can only occur in generational Awakening and Unraveling eras, as in the case of Germany's Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe. In a generational Crisis era, when all the bills come due, it's not inflation but it's a massive deflationary spiral that occurs. If I have enough time left, then at a future date I'll write about the theory of how all this works. I can't get into it now, because this article is long enough as it is.

The three cataclysmic crises

At the beginning of this article, I referenced Donald Trump's plan for "opening up" the economy, and I referenced the Morgan Stanley plan, as illustrated by the diagram at the beginning of the article.

Those two plans differ in details, but from a high level, they're pretty much the same plan. They portray the most optimistic scenario for ending the Covid-19 pandemic crisis in America. However, these plans overlook the consequences of several real possibilities.

At the beginning of this article, I listed three major 20th century crises:

In the 20th century, these crises occurred ten years apart. But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, they are likely to merge in the 21st century.

Generational Dynamics predicts that all of the items in this list of events will occur, though not necessarily in the two year time frame contemplated by the "opening up" scenarios. However, bear in mind that the IMF has predicted the worst global recession since the 1930s Great Depression. So with debt around the world increasing almost exponentially, and with ethnic and racial tensions growing around the world because of Covid-18, the probability that they'll occur in the next year is substantially higher than at any time since the end of World War II.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback: 153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00,

John Xenakis is author of: "Generational Dynamics Anniversary Edition - Forecasting America's Destiny", (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 3), January 2020, Paperback: 359 pages, $14.99,


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Web Log - December, 2012
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Web Log - July, 2004
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