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Web Log - December, 2020


16-Dec-20 World View -- China escalates hostility with Australia through threatened coal ban

China's delusional geopolitical strategy

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from

China escalates hostility with Australia through threatened coal ban

A rally in Hong Kong in December last year in support of Uighurs in Xinjiang province.  In the back, one officer draws a pistol.  (AFP)
A rally in Hong Kong in December last year in support of Uighurs in Xinjiang province. In the back, one officer draws a pistol. (AFP)

China state media reports that China's top economic planner has authorized power plants to import coal without clearance restrictions from several countries "except for Australia." This implies that China is formalizing its ban on imported Australian coal. Australian coal been informally banned for months in the sense that dozens of vessels carrying Australian coal have been stranded offshore, blocked from entering China's ports.

China began an economic war on Australia in April, with economic boycotts and blacklisting of imports from Australia, when Australia called for an international investigation on the origins of the coronavirus pandemic. China responded by telling Australian officials, "China is angry. If you make China the enemy, China will be the enemy."

Australia has also criticized China over the arrest of millions of Uighurs and imprisoning them in concentration camps. These criticisms have also infuriated the Chinese Communists.

The ban on Australian coal imports has not yet been officially confirmed by the Chinese Communists. However, the state media report is another escalation in China's war of threats, extortion and bribery against Australia.

New evidence of massive slavery of Uighurs in China

China's escalating economic war on Australia comes at a time of newly discovered documents that provide a clear picture of how up to a million Uighurs are being forced into slavery in manufacturing, in garment making, and in picking of cotton.

It's been obvious for years that this has been going on, as I've written in the past. Xi Jinping is an admirer of Adolf Hitler, who created one of the largest forced labor systems in history: Over twenty million foreign civilian workers, concentration camp prisoners and prisoners of war from all of the occupied countries were required to perform forced labor in Germany.

The picking of cotton is a particularly emotional issue because American black slaves were forced to pick cotton for their white masters, prior to the freeing of the slaves by Abraham Lincoln. Xi Jinping is going in the opposite direction of Abraham Lincoln. Xi Jinping is forcing more and more Uighurs to pick cotton for their Chinese Communist masters. It's likely that Tibetans and other minorities are being treated the same way. China supplies 20% of the world's cotton.

China's delusional geopolitical strategy

A web site reader has forwarded to me an investment newsletter written by an analyst close to the Chinese Communist Party that describes Xi Jinping's geopolitical strategy over the next five years for gaining hegemony over the entire world. It could have come from China's Central Committee. It's a breathtaking plan, comparable to similar plans by such historical luminaries as Adolf Hitler and Julius Caesar.

I'll be posting a full analysis at some point, but here's a summary: Guided by China's leadership, countries throughout Africa, Asia and the Mideast will put aside their disagreements. Old hatreds will be mended by necessity, to attract capital for investments. These include countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, India, and Pakistan. China will create a "global colossal," of dozens of countries in a massive multi-country partnership, bound together by China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The plan specifies concessions to be made by one nation after another to "mend old hatreds," but it doesn't contain a single example of China making any concession whatsoever.

According to the newsletter: "The big question is how America will respond to the challenge of connecting so much of the world through trade and peace. Their containment policy has failed so far. The choice is either to join this more peaceful venture or to fight it. If the latter choice is adopted it will result in a global war between America and its remaining allies and the combined forces of China and Russia."

This is a completely delusional fantasy, of course, but it feeds into the Chinese Communist and Confucian view that they're the Master Race, and the rest of us are barbarians, with no other purpose than to work for and pay tribute to the Chinese, in the same way that donkeys work for farmers.

Cognitive dissonance

As Leon Festinger has shown, the problem with a person believing in and being committed to a totally delusional fantasy is that when something goes wrong, the person suffers cognitive dissonance and desperately doubles down on the fantasy, trying to make it come true. In countries, this only happens when the country is a dictatorship, where no one can challenge the fantasy view without being jailed, tortured or executed. That explains what happened in Mao Zedong's disastrous Great Leap Forward in the late 1950s. In Xi Jinping's case, this could involve Chinese military action that leads to a regional war, spreading to a world war.

China's delusional geopolitical strategy has been fed a powerful drug-like boost this year by the Chinese Communists' apparent success with the Wuhan Coronavirus. Donald Trump is the first president in decades to stand up to the Chinese, rather than appeasing them. At the beginning of 2020, it appeared that Trump would coast to re-election. But instead, China's intentional spread of Wuhan Coronavirus to countries around the world, including the United States, has resulted in the election of Joe Biden who, along with his son Hunter Biden and other Democrats, have totally compromised relationships with China. At the very least, China can expect to use threats, bribery and extortion on the Bidens and the Democrats to force the US to return to a policy of full-scale appeasement.

This apparent victory would be like a drug to the Xi Jinping, who is convinced that their plan of global hegemony is working.

But an example of what can go wrong occurred in April when Australia called for an international investigation of the source of the pandemic. China responded by telling Australian officials, "China is angry. If you make China the enemy, China will be the enemy." Such an investigation would derail the Chinese plan, and so they doubled down on their strategy by declaring economic war on Australia.

The Chinese Communists will certainly consider this to be another victory since, we assume, no other country would now dare to call for an international investigation of the source of the pandemic. China's policy of threats, bribery and extortion has won again.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99


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11-Dec-20 World View -- Morocco normalizes ties with Israel in exchange for Western Sahara

Israel's 'pragmatic' foreign policy

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from

Morocco normalizes ties with Israel in exchange for Western Sahara

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump and Morocco's King Mohammed VI (AFP)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump and Morocco's King Mohammed VI (AFP)

Morocco and Israel on Thursday agreed to normalize relations, in an agreement mediated by president Donald Trump, and described as "historic." This is the fourth such agreement since September, after agreements between Israel and United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Sudan were also signed. The first Arab countries to recognize Israel were Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994.

As part of this deal, the United States changed longstanding US policy and recognized Morocco’s claims over the disputed Western Sahara region.

Morocco has had a large Jewish population for centuries. Before Israel's establishment in 1948, Morocco was home to a large Jewish population, many of whose ancestors migrated to North Africa from Spain and Portugal during the Spanish Inquisition. Today, hundreds of thousands of Israeli Jews trace their lineage to Morocco, making it one of the country's largest sectors of Israeli society, and a small community of Jews, estimated at several thousand people, continues to live in Morocco.

Trump announced the agreement in a series of tweets in which he thanked Morocco for being one of the first nations to recognize the United States shortly after it declared independence from Britain:

"Today, I signed a proclamation recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara. Morocco’s serious, credible, and realistic autonomy proposal is the ONLY basis for a just and lasting solution for enduring peace and prosperity!

Another HISTORIC breakthrough today! Our two GREAT friends Israel and the Kingdom of Morocco have agreed to full diplomatic relations – a massive breakthrough for peace in the Middle East!

Morocco recognized the United States in 1777. It is thus fitting we recognize their sovereignty over the Western Sahara."

As in the case of the previous agreements, the Palestinian authorities are infuriated. In Gaza, Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem said: “This is a sin and it doesn’t serve the Palestinian people. The Israeli occupation uses every new normalization to increase its aggression against the Palestinian people and increase its settlement expansion.”

The Trump administration is pressuring Saudi Arabia to join with the other countries in normalizing relations with Israel. The Saudis have given tacit approval to the normalization process, but Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said last week Riyadh would only consider such a move if a peace deal "delivers a Palestinian state with dignity and with a workable sovereignty that Palestinians can accept."

Agreement mediated by Donald Trump changes the status of Western Sahara

Map of Western Sahara (Britannica)
Map of Western Sahara (Britannica)

The agreement is receiving criticism from the United Nations, because the UN does not recognize Morocco's sovereignty over the Western Sahara.

The region, Spanish Sahara, was a Spanish protectorate until Morocco achieved independence in 1956, and then claimed sovereignty over Western Sahara in 1957, although Spanish troops repelled the Moroccan military from the territory.

In the 1970s, a guerrilla insurgency of nomadic ethnic Sahrawis sprang up, calling itself the Polisario Front, and calling for the formation of a new nation, the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR). This led to clashes between the Moroccans and the Polisario Front, until a ceasefire was agreed in 1991.

The ceasefire broke down last month. The Polisario Front has declared a "state of war," and the UN has received reports of several "shooting incidents" made by either side.

The Polisario Front is supported by Algeria and South Africa. The intervention by the Trump administration is an important symbolic change in the situation, and will energize the Moroccans. The U.S. is now the only Western country to recognize Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, providing a diplomatic breakthrough for which the kingdom has lobbied for decades.

Israel's 'pragmatic' foreign policy

As I reported in February of this year, 15 years ago Israel made a startling policy change and adopted a new "pragmatic" foreign policy. (See "6-Feb-20 World View -- Israeli diplomat reveals Israel's startling new 'pragmatic' foreign policy")

In the new "pragmatic" foreign policy, adopted around 2004, Israel no longer considers itself to be a Mideast country, so much as a European country. It no longer pretends to try to integrate itself into the Mideast. Instead, under Israel's pragmatic policy, the Arabs and Israelis continue to hate each other, but Israel would use money and trade incentives to "buy" peace with its Arab neighbors. The Trump-mediated peace agreements with UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco appear to be the implementation of this pragmatic strategy.

Al-Jazeera's political analyst Marwan Bishara, who hates Israel but who hates the Palestinian Authority even more for traitoriously negotiating peace with Israel, said that the new announcement was another example of "America as a diplomatic mercenary on behalf of Israel. ... Let’s call it what it is – the imperial proclamation. At the end of the day, Washington is using its influence around the world on behalf of Israel, or rather Israel is outsourcing American power for its own benefit in the greater Middle East."

Bishara puts his hatred of Israel on full display, but his political interpretation is more or less consistent with Israel's pragmatic foreign policy.

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.


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