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Web Log - May, 2020


28-May-20 World View -- US sanctions Hong Kong as activists protest 'March of the Volunteers'

Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou loses a battle in her extradition fight

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from

US sanctions Hong Kong as activists protest 'March of the Volunteers'

Protesters boo Chinese national anthem and sing 'Glory to Hong Kong' in September 2019 (BBC)
Protesters boo Chinese national anthem and sing 'Glory to Hong Kong' in September 2019 (BBC)

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo threatened sanctions targeting China and Hong Kong on Wednesday, as the streets of Hong Kong were filled with over 1,000 protesters, confronting police firing rounds of pepper balls and arresting hundreds.

Pompeo was reacting to a plan by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to effectively revoke the "one country, two systems" formula that the CCP committed to honor in its 1984 agreement with the United Kingdom.

According to a statement issued by Pompeo:

"The State Department is required by the Hong Kong Policy Act to assess the autonomy of the territory from China. After careful study of developments over the reporting period, I certified to Congress today that Hong Kong does not continue to warrant treatment under United States laws in the same manner as U.S. laws were applied to Hong Kong before July 1997. No reasonable person can assert today that Hong Kong maintains a high degree of autonomy from China, given facts on the ground."

This certification means that tariffs that the Trump administration have imposed on China, but exempting Hong Kong, may now be applied to Hong Kong as well. However, it is not clear when this step will be taken, if at all.

Hundreds protest law forbidding abuse of 'March of the Volunteers'

More than 1,000 people protested in Hong Kong on Wednesday against a proposed law that would outlaw "abuse of China's national anthem."

The proposed law is a reaction to what happened at a recent sports event in Hong Kong. When the national anthem, "March of the Volunteers," was playing dozens of young people started booing.

Such things are intolerable to the idiots in the CCP. Recall that it's illegal to post a cartoon of Winnie the Pooh because Xi Jinping looks exactly like Winnie the Pooh. Can you imagine the hilarity if Trump objected to a cartoon mocking him? But mocking Xi Jinping is a crime in China, and apparently so is saying "boo" while the national anthem is playing. That's how it is in the Socialist Paradise of China.

The song was written in 1935 by Shanghai playwrights Nie Er (music) and Tian Han (lyrics), both members of Mao Zedong's communist party as a marching song about the fight against the invading Japanese. These are the original lyrics (translation):

"Arise, ye who refuse to be slaves!
With our flesh and blood, let us build a new Great Wall!
As China faces its greatest peril
From each one the urgent call to action comes forth.
Arise! Arise! Arise!
Millions of but one heart
Braving the enemies’ fire! March on!
Braving the enemies’ fire! March on!
March on! March, march on!"

As the Sino-Japanese war progressed, most Americans were on the side of the Chinese. The song "March of the Volunteers" became popular in the United States, thanks to the efforts of Paul Robeson, the deep-throated baritone who was known for his performance of "Ol' Man River" in the 1927 Broadway show Showboat. Robeson was a spokesman for the Chinese resistance against Japan, and he provided star power to the marching song.

The song remained popular in China, and became the national anthem of the People's Republic of China in 1949.

In 1966, Mao Zedong's disastrous "Cultural Revolution" was underway. One of the casualties of Mao's craziness was Tian Han, who had written the lyrics. (Nie Er had died at the end of 1935.) So Tian was persecuted and thrown into prison, where he was tortured and killed, and "March of the Volunteers" became forbidden.

After Mao's death, Deng Xiaoping rehabilitated the song in 1982, making it the national anthem again with updated lyrics:

"Stand up! Those who are unwilling to become slaves!
Take our flesh, and build it to become a new Great Wall!
The Chinese people have reached a most dangerous time,
Every person is being compelled to send issue a final roar.
Arise! Arise! Arise!
We are millions with one heart,
Braving our enemy’s gunfire, march on!
Braving our enemy’s gunfire, march on!
March on! March on! Charge!"

This is the song that the young people in Hong Kong were booing last year.

Hong Kong protesters have used a variety of their own protest songs, such as "Do You Hear the People Sing?" from the Broadway musical Les Misérables.

But last year, Hong Kongers used crowdsourcing to write their own anthem, titled "Glory to Hong Kong":

"For the tears that we shed on this soil
For the anguish we had in this turmoil
We keep our heads up, our voices strong
May freedom root in Hong Kong

For the fear that looms overhead
For the hope that moves us ahead
We march in blood, our martyrs along
May freedom glow in Hong Kong

Deepest night we shall not be in fright
In the mist, a new day breaks with chants and light
Stand with us, with virtuous minds and unbending spines
The pearl we hold will always shine

Come children of our motherland
The time has come to wage a revolution
Freedom and liberty belong to this land
May glory be to Hong Kong."

In the battle of the anthems, as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) becomes more nationalistic and belligerent every day, it doesn't seem likely that "Glory to Hong Kong" will be the winner.

What's interesting about this battle of the anthems is how China has dissipated its goodwill of the last 80 years. When Paul Robeson was singing "March of the Volunteers," China was very popular in America. This popularity continued for decades. During Mao's Great Leap Forward, when tens of millions of innocent Chinese were starved, tortured, raped and executed, China remained popular. During Mao's Cultural Revolution, when millions of Mao's political opponents were tortured, raped and executed, China remained popular.

Starting with the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, when college students were peacefully protesting in favor of democracy, and there was international televison coverage of thousands of college students being tortured and killed, China's popularity began to wane seriously.

As time went on, and the CCP arrested, raped, tortured and executed people for their Christian, Buddhist, Falun Gong (Buddhist) or Muslim religious beliefs, Americans disliked the CCP more and more. This dislike increased even more, as the CCP arrested, raped, tortured, enslaved and executed millions of Uighurs, and also illegally occupied the South China Sea.

Through one incredibly stupid act after another, the CCP has dissipated and reversed the affection that Americans used to feel for China 80 years ago.

Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou loses a battle in her extradition fight

There was a surprise announcement on Wednesday that a Canadian court has ruled against Ms. Meng Wanzhou (Sabrina Meng), the chief financial officer (CFO) of China's Huawei Technologies, which was founded by her father Ren Zhengfei. Meng was arrested in Canada in December 2018, at the request of the United States, on charges of bank fraud and violating sanctions against Iran.

Meng has been under house arrest since then, living in luxury in her expensive home in Canada, awaiting the court decision about an extradition request by the United States. Wednesday's ruling was on a single aspect of that case -- namely the court ruled that Meng was being charged with a crime that is also a crime in Canada.

There will be additional appeals, so the case may extend for many more months.

When Meng was arrested, she was given a fair court hearing, and was represented by her own lawyers. While the extradition process is going on, she is allowed to live in her luxurious mansion.

In retaliation, China arrested two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig, a former diplomat, and Michael Spavor, a businessman. They were thrown into prison, with no court hearing and no charges.

I always like to say that I don't know what the CCP is going to do about a given situation, but I can guarantee that they're so stupid that they'll make the situation worse. In this situation, by taking two Canadian citizens hostage, they've made it practically impossible for Canada's government to return Meng to China through a political process, since that would appear to be giving in to Chinese extortion.


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24-May-20 World View -- Minister suggests Japan will defend Taiwan against military invasion by China

Japan's pacifist constitution and 'collective self-defense'

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from

Minister suggests Japan will defend Taiwan against military invasion by China

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and VP William Lai Qingde on inauguration day May 20 (Reuters)
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and VP William Lai Qingde on inauguration day May 20 (Reuters)

Japan's State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Keisuke Suzuki, said on Thursday Japan would not allow "people living in such a free society [as Taiwan] to be ravaged by the military power of a one-party dictatorship of the Communist Party," with the implication that Japan would militarily defend Taiwan from an invasion by China. This is a tricky argument to make in view of Japan's pacifist constitution.

The statement came in a Livedoor blog post in which Suzuki described how strategically important Taiwan is to Japan, and how their fates are tied together. In addition to challenging China's military power, he made several other statements making clear Japan's alignment with Taiwan against China. He congratulated Taiwan on the re-election of president Tsai Ing-wen, said that Taiwan's participation in the World Health Organization (WHO) is "of vital importance to the lives and health of people around the world."

An article in Taiwan's Central News Agency describes the contents of the blog post (translation):

"Keisuke Suzuki, the current member of the House of Representatives, posted an article on the livedoor blog. First of all, he paid tribute and congratulations on the election of President Tsai Ing-wen and Vice President Lai Qingde in Taiwan through democratic elections.

Suzuki said that, as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated clearly, "For Japan, Taiwan is an important partner and important friend sharing basic values." Whenever a disaster occurs, Taiwan and Japan exchange support at all levels, personnel exchanges, Economic cooperation is close and there is a strong sense of closeness to each other. Taiwan and Japan are adjacent and jointly face the threat of China, a powerful military dictatorship that continues to provoke provocations. Taiwan and Japan are communities of life.

He said that Japan is one of the few countries in the world facing a severe security environment. For Japan, based on the viewpoint of national interests, the significance of Taiwan is difficult to count. Japan must recognise the fact that Taiwan ’s security and the strengthening of Taiwan-Japan relations are very important to Japan.

He pointed out that in terms of safety and security, due to the impact of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19, commonly known as Wuhan pneumonia), the media reported that the operations of the US military ’s aircraft carriers and other operations were affected. In this case, peace and stability in the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea, It is extremely important for Japan's security. The Chinese military has repeatedly invaded the "territorial waters" in the Diaoyutai waters, repeatedly carried out military provocative actions in the Miyako waters, and around Taiwan.

He emphasized that Taiwan's sharing of values such as freedom, democracy, human rights, the rule of law and freedom of navigation is an irreplaceable property for Japan. Japan absolutely cannot allow people living in such a free society to be ravaged by the military power of a one-party dictatorship of the Communist Party.

Suzuki pointed out that the World Health Assembly (WHA) has been held this week. This time, because of the pneumonia in Wuhan, China, many people know the World Health Organization. Not only are other international organizations such as the WHO and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), Taiwan ’s attempt to join is obstructed by China, which poses substantial risks not only to Japan but also to international peace and security.

Regarding the WHO, Japan has repeatedly advocated Taiwan ’s participation in the World Health Assembly. Taiwan ’s success in the prevention of coronavirus diseases in 2019. If the world can share Taiwan ’s lessons and experience, it should have great significance for the lives and health of the world.

Suzuki said that Taiwan is a democratic society with a population of more than 20 million, and is adjacent to China. The epidemic was controlled in the early stage of the epidemic. The reason why such results cannot be shared by the world is because the WHO is the WHO Secretariat and the Communist Party. One-party authoritarian military power China is at the mercy of political thinking. WHO, who emphasizes scientific views, is criticized for attaching importance to the political thinking of a particular country rather than human life and health. WHO should reflect deeply on it.

Suzuki believes that Taiwan's participation in ICAO is also very important. On Fei'an, because China's political intentions give rise to geographic gaps and will not allow Taiwan to participate in ICAO, Japan, which is adjacent to Taiwan, faces various risks and will suffer the most.

He said that from the point of view of the safety and peace of mind of Japanese citizens and people traveling to Japan, it is absolutely impossible to allow China's brutal actions and the inaction of the secretariats of international organizations."

Of particular note to Americans is that Suzuki implies that American defense may not be dependable because "the operations of the US military ’s aircraft carriers and other operations were affected" due to the impact of the Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19).

On Friday, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, speaking at the National People's Congress (NPC) made the usual call for "reunification" of Taiwan with China, but signaled an apparent policy shift by omitting the word "peaceful," as in "peaceful reunification," which is the phrase used in the past.

Japan's pacifist constitution and 'collective self-defense'

An examination of Keisuke Suzuki's blog post, quoted at length of above, reveals some complex legal reasoning.

Japan has a pacifist constituion, adopted at the insistence of the United States at the end of World War II. Article 9 of the constitution forbids most military action by Japan's military, but permits military action only when Japan itself is being attacked, and then only on Japanese soil.

Over the years, there have been numerous attempts to revoke Article 9, but there is a strong pacifist political movement in Japan that has blocked such attempts.

Finally, in 2015, prime minister Shinzo Abe succeeded in getting the Diet (parliament), following a bitter debate involving fisticuffs, to pass a law reinterpreting the defense clause to include "collective self-defense," which would permit military action under some circumstances when an ally (such as the United States) is attacked. I discussed the meaning of "collective self-defense" in detail in 2014 in "5-May-14 World View -- Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan".

So now Keisuke Suzuki is proposing to apply the "collective self-defense" concept to Taiwan.

I want to repeat the most important sentences of the blog post:

"For Japan, based on the viewpoint of national interests, the significance of Taiwan is difficult to count. Japan must recognise the fact that Taiwan ’s security and the strengthening of Taiwan-Japan relations are very important to Japan.

He pointed out that in terms of safety and security, due to the impact of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19, commonly known as Wuhan pneumonia), the media reported that the operations of the US military ’s aircraft carriers and other operations were affected. In this case, peace and stability in the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea, It is extremely important for Japan's security. The Chinese military has repeatedly invaded the "territorial waters" in the Senkaku Island waters, repeatedly carried out military provocative actions in the Okinawa waters, and around Taiwan."

This is actually a legalistic explanation of why the "collective self-defense" reinterpretation of Article 9 can be used to defend Taiwan. It explains why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is also a threat to Japan, and that even US intervention cannot be counted on.

Keisuke Suzuki's statement is going to be controversial in Japan, but it probably reflects reality in that Japan could not simply stand by while China flattens Taiwan.

The CCP also knows all this, which means that if they're going to invade Taiwan, then they'd also be at war with Japan (which is what my book is about), and would soon be at war with the US. So a "simple" invasion of Taiwan would be more difficult than it seems.

The Chinese plan for an actual invasion of Taiwan

Taiwan Airfields
Taiwan Airfields

"Navigator," a retired American Army Colonel 30 years experience as an Army Officer, who blogs at, posted in the Generational Dynamics forum his analysis of how a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would proceed:

"The first thing I would tell you is to take a look at the adjoining map. This shows the locations of airfields in Taiwan territory.

Taiwan owns territory VERY close to China. The main islands are Quemoy (now more often called Kinmen county) and Matsu. Matsu is too far north to really be involved in the Chinese invasion plan, but not Quemoy (I will use the modern Kinmen hereafter).

Next, note the 3 airfields on islands between China mainland and Taiwan proper. These are Magong, Wangan, and Qimei. These are in the Pescardores islands (now called Penghu county). Magong is on the main island, which is also the location of MAJOR port facilities.

In an invasion of Taiwan, the Chinese cannot allow for enemy occupied airfields to remain along the invasion route, and along the supply lines from China to the landing beaches. Also, the invasion would have major airfields as immediate objectives.

In a rough outline, what the Chinese would probably do is:

  • Secure Kinmen
  • Secure Penghu (with its airfield and port facilities much closer to Taiwan than those in Mainland China)
  • Secure beachheads on Taiwan, with the immediate objectives including a good airfield (much better to fly in Reinforcements than ship by sea).

To do this, the Chinese would first have to mass troops around Xiamen. This would probably follow landing exercises that the Chinese would do everything possible to conceal.

Kinmen, so close to China, is not really defensible, and although the Nationalist Chinese were successful in fighting off a CCP invasion in 1949, I don't think they could do it now. The Chinese could conceivably secure Kinmen before the USA, if it even wanted to, could interfere.

With forces massed, they would then move quickly to sieze Kinmen. Once done, they would then move to take the Pescadores (Penghu county). This would be MUCH more difficult, as it would involve a major sea lift across about 80 miles of sea.

The US would have the opportunity to interfere with the Chinese landings in the Pescadores. But the Chinese could bring enough force to bear to defeat or neutralize the Carrier group sent to do so. This of course would mean war with the USA.

Once the Chinese have the Pescadores secured, they would, in my opinion, land to move to take either the Chiaya airport, or, more likely, the Tainan airport, as it is only about a mile and a half away from a decent landing beach (the Gold Coast), and there is not a lot of urban area between the beach and airfield.

The Pescadores would be a better staging area for a CCP invasion of Taiwan than mainland China due to the much closer proximity. The CCP forces would build up here, and the distance for ferrying troops and equipment would be less than 20 miles to Taiwan.

By this time, the Nationalist Chinese would have time to prepare for the landings and fighting. I think that they would have a good chance of fighting the CCP forces to a standstill, at least in the short term. Long term they will run out of resources (ammunition).

The Chinese could attempt landings closer to Taipei initially, but this is less likely. It would however be more in line with a quicker strike at Taiwan than landing in the Pescadores first. But this move would have to be preceded by taking the Matsu islands (and their Taiwan controlled airfields) first.

Note on the map that the open area of Taiwan is the strip on the western coast of the country. Further to the east the terrain becomes MUCH more rugged, and therefore much more militarily defensible."

The above is one possible description of China's military scenario in invading Taiwan. In my book, "War between China and Japan," I predicted that China would invade Japan to get revenge for World War II atrocities, and would invade Taiwan to annex it.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99


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22-May-20 World View -- China to pass law threatening full control of Hong Kong

China puts 100 million people under lockdown, as possible virus mutation emerges

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from

China to pass law threatening full control of Hong Kong

Annual Hong Kong vigil on June 4, 2019, to commemorate the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989. (Hong Kong Free Press)
Annual Hong Kong vigil on June 4, 2019, to commemorate the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989. (Hong Kong Free Press)

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has run "out of patience" with the repeated pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong in the last year, and will pass laws on "Establishing and Improving the Legal System and Enforcement Mechanisms for Hong Kong to Safeguard National Security." The law will be discussed on Friday by the National People's Congress (NPC), and the rubber-stamp NPC is expected to pass it.

Depending on the details, the new laws could mean the complete repudiation of the "one country, two systems" formula that the CCP committed to honor in its 1984 agreement with the United Kingdom. The net of all the new laws is that the CCP is ending any pretense of meeting its commitments under the agreement.

The laws for Hong Kong will cover secession, foreign interference, terrorism and subversion against the central government.

Even talking about "secession" is already illegal, and presumably the new laws will specify even harsher punishment for speaking out. "Foreign interference" refers to American support of pro-democracy activists' free speech in Hong Kong, but also refers to Britain's insistence that the CCP abide by the commitments it made in the 1984 joint declaration treaty to allow freedom of speech and assembly in Hong Kong and a free press. The treaty is now part of international law, but the CCP considers itself superior to international law and not bound by it, although it demands that everyone else be bound by it. "Terrorism" is the catch-all phrase that dictators and war criminals use to justify mass arrests or mass slaughter. "Subversion" refers to any speech or act that the CCP feels threatens it. For example, even showing a Winnie the Pooh cartoon is considered subversive, since Xi Jinping looks like Winnie the Pooh.

A top CCP official, Wang Yang, in a speech on Thursday that free speech in Hong Kong was only permitted to "stop violence and curb disorder." In describing the new laws, Wang pointedly omitted phrases frequently used in the past, like "Hong Kong people administering Hong Kong," nor the city’s "high degree of autonomy."

The CCP has already been cracking down on Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement since January, by arresting a number of people under vaguely specified charges. It's believed that the CCP is taking advantage of the worldwide distraction from the Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic crisis to get away with passing this law without any international reaction.

In addition, the CCP is hoping that the strict enforcement of social distancing regulations will prevent the large public demonstrations and riots that occurred last year.

However, the CCP may be underestimating the anger of the Hong Kong activists, or the support that the international community may be willing to provide them.

Mike Pompeo harshly criticizes the CCP as a 'brutal, authoritarian regime'

Even before Thursday's announcement, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo threatened to end America's special economic treatment of Hong Kong, if the CCP did not meet the requirements of the "Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019," passed by the US Congress in November of last year.

That threat was part of an extremely harsh set of criticisms of the CCP related to the pandemic handling, and CCP threats against Australia, Taiwan and Hong Kong:

"I want to begin today with a few observations on China, because the media’s focus on the current pandemic risks missing the bigger picture of the challenge that’s presented by the Chinese Communist Party. First, basic facts. China’s been ruled by a brutal, authoritarian regime, a communist regime since 1949.

For several decades, we thought the regime would become more like us through trade, scientific exchanges, diplomatic outreach, letting them in the WTO as a developing nation. That didn’t happen.

We greatly underestimated the degree to which Beijing is ideologically and politically hostile to free nations. The whole world is waking up to that fact. ...

Second point on the bigger picture: The Chinese Communist Party’s response to the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan have accelerated our more realistic understanding of communist China.

The Party chose to destroy live virus samples instead of sharing them or asking us to help secure them.

The People’s Liberation Army has claimed more features in the South China Sea’s international waters, sank a Vietnamese fishing boat, threatened a Malaysian energy prospector, and declared a unilateral fishing ban. The United States condemns these unlawful acts.

The Chinese Communist Party chose to threaten Australia with economic retribution for the simple act of asking for an independent inquiry into the origins of the virus. It’s not right.

We stand with Australia and the more than 120 nations now who have taken up the American call for an inquiry into the origins of the virus, so we can understand what went wrong and save lives now, and in the future.

The Chinese Communist Party also chose to pressure the World Health Organization’s director-general into excluding Taiwan from this week’s World Health Assembly in Geneva. ...

Turning for a moment to Taiwan: I want to say congratulations to President Tsai on her inauguration. The democratic process in Taiwan has matured into a model for the world. Despite great pressure from the outside, Taiwan has demonstrated the wisdom of giving people a voice and a choice.

In Hong Kong, our decision on whether or not to certify Hong Kong as having “a high degree of autonomy” from China is still pending. We’re closely watching what’s going on there.

This week pro-democracy legislators were man-handled while trying to stop a procedural irregularity by pro-Beijing legislators. Leading Hong Kong activists like Martin Lee and Jimmy Lai were hauled into court. Actions like these make it more difficult to assess that Hong Kong remains highly autonomous from mainland China."

With regard to Hong Kong, Pompeo was threatening to end America's special economic treatment of Hong Kong, if the CCP did not meet the requirements of the "Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019," passed by Congress in November of last year.

The law requires that "Hong Kong must remain sufficiently autonomous from the People's Republic of China to justify treatment under a particular law of the United States, or any provision thereof, different from that accorded the People's Republic of China."

The law requires that the CCP support free elections and "the robust exercise by residents of Hong Kong of the rights to free speech, the press, and other fundamental freedoms," and "freedom from arbitrary or unlawful arrest, detention, or imprisonment for all Hong Kong residents."

The special economic treatment of Hong Kong grants such things as tariff-free special access to US markets and easier visa approval, things are not granted to mainland China. If that treatment is withdrawn, then Hong Kong will be treated the same as mainland China.

Needless to say, the CCP was infuriated by Pompeo's statements, and went into their usual acting out expressions of outrage, this time accusing Pompeo of "blackmailing" the Hong Kong government, and of blatantly interfering in China's internal affairs.

So it's worth pointing out that Pompeo is only demanding that the CCP honor commitments that it already made which, or course, is a laughable concept to the CCP, leaders of the Master Race.

Still, it's hard to overstate how harsh Pompeo's criticisms of the CCP were. The point is that we're continuing on a long-term trend of growing hostility between China and the US, with no end in sight. Chinese and Americans are becoming increasingly xenophobic toward each other, and this has increased substantially since the pandemic crisis began.

Long-time Generational Dynamics readers will be aware that this is the path to war. Due to the mutual belligerence and hostility, a small military confrontation in the South China Sea or elsewhere could spiral into a larger and larger war, and engulf other nations. That's the path that China and the US are on. This will not end well.

China puts 100 million people under lockdown, as possible virus mutation emerges

China has put over 100 million people into renewed lockdown, as major new virus outbreak clusters have appeared, in a feared "second wave." The outbreaks are occurring in China's Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces (the former Manchuria in China's northeast), on the borders with Russia and North Korea. There are also new outbreaks in Wuhan.

According to one Chinese expert, those infections in Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces are presenting slightly different symptoms, suggesting that there may have been a mutation. In the 1917-1919 Spanish Flu pandemic, a mutation occurred in the summer of 1918 that made the second wave in fall 1918 much worse than the first wave. That doesn't mean that the same thing will happen with Covid-19, but there are fears that it might.


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17-May-20 World View -- Trump administration will block chip shipments to China's Huawei

Generational Theory: Is nuclear war with China inevitable?

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from

Trump administration will block chip shipments to China's Huawei

China is growing more nationalistic and militaristic every day.  Is a US-China war even possible in the age of nuclear weapons? (Reuters)
China is growing more nationalistic and militaristic every day. Is a US-China war even possible in the age of nuclear weapons? (Reuters)

The US Department of Commerce announced on Friday that it would block sales of US semiconductor technology to China's Huawei Technologies or its HiSilicon affiliate. The order would block sales of chips and chipsets, as well as related software and technology.

This is actually an extension of an order that was put into effect last year, that I described in detail in an article in August. ( "16-Aug-19 World View -- Results of sanctions on Huawei Electronics")

The order was put into effect because Huawei devices, including mobile phones and routers, present a threat to national security in the United States and in any other country where these devices are used and installed. It's now generally accepted that Huawei devices contain undetectable "backdoors" that allow China's military to control them remotely for the purposes of spying and data collection, and could even shut them down completely on command from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

However, Huawei has found ways to bypass the previous order, and so the extended order will restrict many more companies, including foreign companies, from selling products to Huawei. The US is able to restrict even foreign companies from selling products to Huawei if the products contain 25% or more of U.S.-originated technologies or materials.

Possibly the most significant target of the extended order is Taiwan’s Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) Ltd, a major producer of chips for Huawei’s HiSilicon unit as well as mobile phone rivals Apple and Qualcomm.

The extended order will only go into effect after 120 days. In the meantime, TSMC has announced that it will conduct a thorough legal analysis, and Huawei announced that the Chinese Communist Party will retaliate.

According to reports in the CCP propaganda publication Global Times, the CCP is planning retaliation on US companies such as Apple, and halting purchase of Boeing airplanes:

"The potential move, the second time within two days that China has released message of hitting back against the US, also the very first time government source noted to target specific US companies, is a result of Washington's recent malicious attacks on China, which ignited a tsunami of anger among Chinese officials and in the business circle. China is mulling punitive countermeasures against US individuals and entities over COVID-19 lawsuits due to the abuse of litigation by the US side, sources close to the matter told the Global Times previously.

China's latest moves indicate a toe-to-toe strategy between the world's two largest economies, from political to economic ends, being in full play, experts said."

At the very least, this makes it likely that the US-China trade war is back in full force.

The Huawei threat to national security

I've been writing about this issue since 2012, when Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta warned of a Cyberwar Pearl Harbor from China.

First off, I'm the expert on this subject, not some reporter or politician who majored in sociology or women's studies in college. I spent five years of my career developing board-level operating systems for embedded systems, so I know how easy it would be to install a "backdoor" into a device that would allow the device to be controlled remotely by China's military. Furthermore, an implementation that uses public/private key encryption technology could be designed in such a way that the backdoor could not be detected, even by someone who suspects that the backdoor is there.

I have the skills to do this fairly easily, and there are undoubtedly many Chinese engineers with the same skills. So it would be very easy for Huawei to install undetectable backdoors into all its devices, allowing the devices to be controlled by China's military. Furthermore, in 2017, the CCP passed the National Intelligence Law, which demands that all organizations, including Huawei, "support, cooperate with, and collaborate with" China's military in collecting intelligence, even when doing so is illegal.

So any country or company that has installed Huawei networks and devices can be easily spied on by China's military, and the network can be controlled or shut down by China's military, for example at time of war.

The CCP has heavily subsidized Huawei so that Huawei's products are much cheaper than those of competitors. This has allowed Huawei to install networks in many countries, and is being particularly aggressive in installing 5G networks. China's military already has the ability to track political, media and military figures in many countries, and to steal any kind of economic or military information.

The world is waking up to the character of the Chinese Communist Party

The above is the title of a recent article in the Washington Post, highlighting the fact that the CCP's handling of the Wuhan Coronavirus crisis has been nothing short of criminal. What's different now is that it isn't just the United States being the lone critic of the CCP in areas such as trade and Huawei 5G, but after the CCP seeded the virus in over 180 countries, people in many countries see the CCP as a criminal organization.

There's a debate going on as to whether the virus occurred naturally in a Chinese "wet market," or whether it originated in the Wuhan Institute Of Virology. The debate is hightened by the fact that today, many months later, the CCP still is blocking the CDC, the WHO, and other international organizations from going to Wuhan to conduct an independent investigation. The CCP's actions lead to the conclusion that the "worst" must be true, whatever the "worst" is.

But most people no longer even care about that. Who cares how the virus was created? What's being viewed internationally as criminal behavior is what the CCP did once the virus started spreading:

By seeding the world, by using their WHO puppets to lie to the world, and by buying up all available PPE in the world, the CCP gave themselves a three-month headstart on controlling the virus. The CCP seems to have succeeded in this extremely malicious and evil strategy, as they're far ahead of other countries in "opening up" their economy. The only downside for the CCP is that China is an export economy, and they've destroyed the economies of their own customers.

Chinese Communist supporters and CCP trolls claim that items in the above list are exaggerated, but there is no longer any doubt of overwhelming evidence of malicious actions and malicious intent by the Chinese Communist Party.

That's why, as the Washington Post article claims, "the world is waking up to the character of the Chinese Communist Party," which is increasingly seen as a criminal organization which has maliciously caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, increasing into the millions, in hundreds of countries. Not only has the CCP expressed no remorse, but they continue to blame others, continue to censor news reports from their own media, continue to deport reporters from foreign news organizations, and continue to block international investigations in Wuhan.

As an aside, I've noticed a significant change in Donald Trump's demeanor. In January, he was still referring to Xi Jinping as a friend, and saying that China was doing a good job. The turning point occurred in February, as I recall, when the CCP disinformation campaign began claiming that the virus was planted in Wuhan by American soldiers. This clearly infuriated Trump. Today, Trump specifically blames Xi Jinping for hundreds of thousands of deaths in over 180 countries.

Trump's change in attitude is emblematic of a change in attitude that has occurred in many populations in many countries around the world. This will not end well.

The CCP thugs may believe that now would be a good time to attack America, believing that the American armed forces are weakened by Covid-19. That's why Trump is pushing hard to open businesses again, and that's why he said on Friday, "I just want to make something clear, it's very important. Vaccine or no vaccine, we're back."

Faustian bargains with China

Faust is the title character in a ninetenth century play by Johann Wolfgang von Goethe in which Faust sells his soul to the devil in return for money and sex. The devil helps Faust seduce Gretchen. The play ends tragically as every person in Gretchen's family dies, and Gretchen is imprisoned, as Faust goes to hell to pay the price.

As I've said in the past, the Chinese are unique in a highly racist way, as I described in my book, "War Between China and Japan." While people in America consider themselves to be ordinary people who were lucky enough to be born in the greatest nation in history, the Chinese Communists view themselves as the Master Race -- yellow race, black hair, brown eyes, yellow skin -- and the rest of us as barbarians. To the CCP, other people produce products and services for the benefit of the Chinese Communists, just as mules plough the fields for the benefit of their farms. Stealing intellectual property or PPE is perfectly OK because we barbarians are the mules from which anything can be taken. On the other hand, the CCP regime will collapse if the population believes that Xi Jinping has lost the "Mandate from Heaven."

Thus, we're more and more hearing the term "Faustian bargain" in conjunction with any agreement made with the Chinese Communists.

This is clear from the CCP's subsidizing of Huawei devices. Huawei sells these devices at extremely low prices, thanks to the CCP subsidies. But that's the Faustian bargain. As we've described, the devices contain "backdoors" that allow China's military to spy on the data and control the devices remotely.

Then there are the "debt trap diplomacy" agreements in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China has been extremely secretive about the details of these agreements, but in the past, details have leaked out in several countries, and I wrote several articles when the leaks occurred. China has used these agreements to acquire and control ports and other strategic assets in Sri Lanka, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ghana, Zambia, Kenya -- through its "debt trap diplomacy." Several other countries, including Pakistan and the Maldives, are at risk.

Based on leaks in various countries, the details of these BRI agreements are absolutely incredible. Here's the pattern:

These terms are so horrific that it's almost impossible to believe them, but that's what leaked documents have shown. ( "15-Jan-19 World View -- Kenya's leaked BRI contract reveals shocking China debt trap details")

So we're seeing this time after time in every CCP transaction. When the CCP joins an international organization like the United Nations or World Trade Organization (WTO) or World Health Organization (WHO), they feel no obligation to meet their commitments, although they demand that everyone else do so. They view these organizations as a means to control the barbarians, as a farmer might use electrified fences to control his pack of mules.

In every CCP transaction, it's always the same. The subsidized Huawei devices will control networks in any country that uses them. Joining the WHO let China use them to spread the virus worldwide. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) gives the CCP control of many governments and infrastructure in Asia and Africa.

Doing business with the CCP means selling your soul to the devil. The CCP never apologizes for errors. Never concedes that they made a mistake. Never agrees to reparations for any damage they do. The CCP is a criminal organization which, if it were an individual acting the same way, would be called psychopathic. This is not going to end well.

Let's not forget to mention that the CCP has arrested, imprisoned and enslaved millions of Muslim Uighurs and Kazakhs, something that was supposed to be "Never again!!" after Hitler did it. And the CCP has also illegally annexed the South China Sea, similar to something that Hitler also did. These are the kinds of people that we're dealing with in Xi Jinping and the CCP thugs.

And it's always important to make it clear that we're distinguishing between the CCP thugs and the ordinary Chinese people. The ordinary Chinese people are wonderful, whether they're in China, in Hong Kong or in Taiwan. In fact, the Chinese people in Taiwan have a standard of living several times better than the Chinese people in China, because Taiwan is a free market democracy, and China is a Fascist thugocracy.

Generational Theory: Is nuclear war with China inevitable?

The following discussion goes beyond news reporting to Generational Dynamics theory on the question of whether we're headed to nuclear war with China. It's intended to be read by those interested in better understanding of generational theory.

We can look at the big picture without referring to generational theory. There were two world wars in the last century, plus massive additional wars in Asia, the Mideast, Africa, and pretty much in every region of the world. Furthermore, there have been massive wars in every continent, in every nation, in every region of the world in every century for millennia. There is absolutely no reason why this century should be any different, and several reasons why this century should be worse. So from that point of view, it's 100% certain that there will be one or two world wars in this century, plus additional massive wars in every region of the world, and so a war between the US and China is inevitable. Only the timing is in question.

I've probably written several million words on the differences between crisis and non-crisis wars, and I won't attempt to repeat that here. But it's important to understand that crisis wars are the worst wars, and, in the words of one person, it would be necessary to "reboot the culture" during the Recovery Era following a crisis war, particular within the nation or society that lost the war. A generational crisis war is extremely horrific and traumatizing to all sides, and typically the population becomes anxious and desperate to make sure that it never happens again, and some sort of "rebooting" would not be unusual.

I get asked a lot of questions, and I try to answer all of them, based on three conditions: I have to have the time, it has to be an interesting subject, and I have to be in the mood. If those conditions aren't met, then I usually ask the questioner to do his own research. This has actually worked out very well, as a number of people have done their own research, and contributed to the development of Generational Dynamics.

So I was asked several questions about whether a crisis war is even possible between nuclear powers in the 21st century, or whether it's even possible to win a nuclear war.

Of course a nuclear war is winnable -- in the sense that one side or the other will surrender, even if both sides have huge refugee problems and multiple cities destroyed by nuclear weapons. And you can be very certain the US military -- and the military in many other countries -- are fully prepared to fight a nuclear war, with the intention of winning it.

With about 200 countries in the world, you can expect crisis wars to be occurring somewhere at any point in time. There are typically 15-20 wars going on in the world at any given time (not all crisis wars, of course). However, I recall that in 2004, there was a study by some Swedish academy that the number of wars at that time was the lowest on record.

Since the end of World War II, there have been a number of regional generational crisis wars. For reference, the following is a quick summary list of some examples that I've written about in the past:

Kenya's Mau-Mau rebellion (1956), Bolivia civil war (1967), Iran/Iraq war - Great Islamic Revolution (1979-88), Cambodian "Killing Fields" genocide (Cambodia and Thailand - 1975-79), Sudan war of independence (1991), Colombia and Venezuela - "La Violencia" or the Colombian Revolt (1948-1959), Armenia vs Azerbaijan (1989-94), Yemen civil war (1962-68), Rhodesia civil war - Zimbabwe (1979), Afghanistan civil war (1991-96), Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) - Kasai region (1960), Algeria's war of independence from France (1954-62), Cameroon - UPC Revolt (1956-1960), Ethiopia - Eritrea(1991), Pakistan - India - Partition war (1947), Bangladesh - East Pakistan - East India (1971), Rwanda - Burundi - Hutu-Tutsi (1994), Sri Lanka civil war - Tamil-Sinhalese (2009), Cuba (1960), Vietnam reunification civil war (1975).

Over the centuries, as transportation, communication and weaponry technologies improve, nations, societies, and identity groups tend to grow, with the result that crisis wars tend to merge into clusters. For convenience, I've referred to two different clusters that I call the WW I timeline and WW II timeline. Most of the nuclear powers (US, Britain, France, India, Pakistan, China) were on the WW II timeline. Russia was on the WW I timeline, with the Bolshevik revolution.

A lot of other countries were on the WW II timeline. Just to pick some at random, you have South Africa, Egypt, Korea, and Australia.

A lot of countries were on the WW I timeline, particularly in the Mideast with the collapse of the Russian and Ottoman empires. WW I was early enough in the century that some countries have had two crisis wars in the last century. Iran, Syria and Iraq are examples. Others have been delayed into a Fifth Turning, such as Mexico, Tunisia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. These Fifth Turning countries are all very interesting examples to study.

As I said, crisis war clusters tend to merge over the centuries, and what we're looking at today with WW III is a final merging of the WW I and WW II timelines.

This leads to the question of how crisis wars start and, in particular, if the existence of nuclear weapons makes crisis wars less likely. I've thought a lot about these questions and looked at many examples, and I haven't been able to find any evidence that nuclear weapons will make any difference at all.

Let's start with examples of some American non-crisis wars. The Vietnam war (Vietnam's reunification war) evolved slowly from advisors to heavier involvement after the Gulf of Tonkin resolution. The Gulf war occurred after months of debate following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. The Iraq war began after years of political haranguing over Iraq's WMDs. The point is that none of these were rash decisions. These occurred only after lengthy debate and consideration.

A recent example that I've pointed to often because it's so incredibly fascinating and almost unbelievable is the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. On July 12, 2006, some members of the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon crossed the border and abducted two Israeli soldiers.

Israel's government went into a state of total panic. Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert called this "an act of war," and within a few hours, Israel was mobilized for war. Israel launched the war with no plan and no objective. Each day, Israel lurched from one plan and objective to the next, as the previous one failed. In the end, the war was a disaster for both Israel and Lebanon, and accomplished nothing except the destruction of a lot of Lebanon's infrastructure. The war fizzled quickly because Lebanon and Hezbollah were in a generational Awakening era.

It's really a remarkable example. On July 11, 2006, there was no thought of war. On July 13, 2006, they were at war. The abduction of Israeli soldiers was apparently a random act by some Hezbollah fighters, but that random act on July 12, 2006, was all it took to trigger a war that might have spiraled into much bigger war, if Lebanon had been in a highly xenophobic and nationalistic Crisis era.

So my view is that crisis wars start from a panicked reaction to exactly this kind of random or minor act. If the participants are in a crisis era, with populations in highly xenophobic and nationalistic moods, then a random act can quickly spiral into a larger and larger war, with no planning. World War I began when a high school student assassinated an Archduke, and it led to the collapse of the Russian and Ottoman empires.

World War II did not begin with the bombing of Pearl Harbor. It didn't even begin with the Nazi invasion of Poland.

World War II began in 1937 with the Marco Polo Bridge incident. I've written about this a number of times, but here's a summary.

The Marco Polo Bridge is about 15 km south of Beijing in China, and was so named because Marco Polo praised the bridge in the 13th century. In 1937, both Japan and China were deep into generational Crisis eras, and the Japanese and Chinese people really hated each other. On July 7, A small group of Japanese soldiers, stationed near the bridge, took a roll call and found one soldier missing. The Japanese accused Chinese soldiers, also stationed near the bridge in the city of Wanping, of abducting the Japanese soldier. A brief clash was won by the Japanese. The two sides negotiated a settlement, but both sides brought in reinforcements. Within a month there was full-scale war, leading to the Japanese "Rape of Nanking" shortly thereafter.

And, of course, we always have to mention that the Japanese soldier missed roll call because he went into the woods to pee, and lost his way back. So it's not so wrong to say that World War II was triggered because someone unexpectedly had to pee.

One of the major motivations that Japan had in bombing Pearl Harbor in 1941 was that the US, while officially neutral, was clearly supporting China in the Japan-China war, and the purpose of bombing Pearl Harbor was not to make the US a Japanese colony, but rather to prevent the US from supporting China.

Today the situation is similar to WW II, with the roles of China and Japan reversed. I didn't call my book "War between China and the US," since that's not the major objective of China. I called it "War between China and Japan." Once again, the Chinese and Japanese people are highly xenophobic and nationalistic. Once again, the Chinese and Japanese people really hate each other. The Chinese want revenge for WW II -- for Japan's invasion of China, for the comfort women, for the Rape of Nanking, for Japan's war crimes, and for the horrific chemical and biological warfare atrocities committed on Chinese people by Japan's Unit 731. But this time, the US will be supporting Japan against China, even though the US may be officially neutral at first.

There are extremely powerful emotions involved here. Most of these emotions are exhibited by young people who are indifferent to the catastrophic consequences of a war, in the same way that young people in the US support Sanders and are completely indifferent to the catastrophic consequences of his policies.

So, would these extremely powerful emotions between Chinese and Japanese people be affected by the fact that China and the US are nuclear powers? I just don't see how. There could be a trivial incident today, tomorrow or the next day, with a small clash between China and Japan that spirals into a war because of the massive nationalism and xenophobia on both sides. Nuclear weapons would have nothing to do with it, although nuclear weapons would be used as the war spiraled and progressed.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99


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8-May-20 World View -- Milk-Tea twitter war links Thailand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Philippines against China

Milk-Tea War exposes generational split in Thailand

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from

Milk-Tea twitter war links Thailand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Philippines against China

Bright's 2017 tweet with picture of #nnevvy, who infuriated China by saying she looked like a Taiwanese girl
Bright's 2017 tweet with picture of #nnevvy, who infuriated China by saying she looked like a Taiwanese girl

There isn't much news lately except for coronavirus news. Potential riots in places like Lebanon or India quickly die down because everyone is afraid of getting sick.

So when this story popped up on my radar, it sounded great. It's about a hilarious twitter war called the "Milk-Tea War" that has special significance for younger generations in Thailand and their bitter attitudes toward China.

I'll try to summarize the twitter war, but you'll need to read through the sources for all the gory details.

The above is only a summary. There was an outpouring of nationalist slurs and hatred only, fueled by the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP's) news media.

Milk-Tea War exposes generational split in Thailand

Thailand's last generational crisis war was the Cambodian "killing fields" war, 1975-79, in which Pol Pot's communist Khmer Rouge government, backed by China, killed 2-3 million people in a massive genocide. Even though the war wasn't on Thai soil, it spilled over into Thailand in the army's fight against communists in Thailand.

Thailand's government has endeavoured to maintain friendly relations with China, but what the Milk-Tea twitter war reveals is that Thailand's younger generations, that grew up after the war, are hostile to both China and their own government. This is not surprising, as Thailand is in a generational Awakening era, and there is a "generation gap" between the generations surviving the war and the generations growing up after the war, as there was in America in the 1970s.

Ever since Xi Jinping came to power in 2011, China has been increasingly nationalistic and belligerent, ignoring international law and committing crimes in the South China Sea and Xinjiang province. Lately, the evidence has been growing that the CCP purposely seeded the Wuhan Coronavirus on 180 countries of the world, so that China wouldn't be the only country fighting the virus. ( "27-Apr-20 World View -- CNBC's Jim Cramer: Hostility to China grows in America")

The action by China's embassy to enter the fray and accuse the Thai users of "bias and ignorance" turned what might have been fun flame war into an international incident. It illustrates that there is a great deal of hatred and hostility between the CCP and young people in Thailand.

As world war with China approaches, China continues to make enemies. China has a few allies, such as Cambodia, Pakistan, Myanmar, and others, but China is surrounded by historic enemies, including Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, India and Russia. Now we can add Thailand to the list of likely CCP enemies.


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