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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Oct-2021
24-Oct-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma junta massing troops in northwest, preparing for mass slaughter

Web Log - October, 2021

24-Oct-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma junta massing troops in northwest, preparing for mass slaughter

ASEAN blocks Myanmar's attendance

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Myanmar/Burma junta massing troops in northwest, preparing for mass slaughter
ASEAN blocks Myanmar's attendance
The future of Myanmar (Burma)

Myanmar/Burma junta massing troops in northwest, preparing for mass slaughter

Burmese troops

Burmese troops

Ever since the military coup that took place on February 1 of this year, the military junta of Myanmar (Burma) has been increasingly violent. More than 1,100 civilians have been killed by Myanmar security forces with thousands of others arrested, according to the United Nations, involving most peaceful anti-government protesters.

Now, the military junta in Myanmar is massing tens of thousands of troops and heavy weapons in northwest Myanmar, and talking about "clearance operations." This is exactly the same scenario that preceded the ferocious attacks, unspeakable violance and mass atrocities conducted against the Rohingyas in Rakhine state in 2016-2018.

According to Tom Andrews of the United Nations:

"These tactics are ominously reminiscent of those employed by the military before its genocidal attacks against the Rohingya in Rakhine State in 2016 and 2017.
We should all be prepared, as the people in this part of Myanmar are prepared, for even more mass atrocity crimes. I desperately hope that I am wrong."

As I've described starting with the massive demonstrations in 2007 by the "'88 Generation," Burma's last two generational crisis wars (1886-1891 and 1948-1958) were extremely bloody and violent civil wars involving multiple ethnic groups. (See "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter")

When a crisis war ends, the country enters a new generational Crisis era (fourth turning) 58 years after the end of the war. In this case, Myanmar entered a new generational Crisis era in 2016.

Almost on cue, Myanmar's army started committing major atrocities in 2016, and today, the next round of atrocities is apparently about to begin.

ASEAN blocks Myanmar's attendance

ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Nations) has ten members: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, and they've always followed a strict policy of not criticizing the government of any of the others. ASEAN has been criticized in the past for refusing to condemn atrocities conducted by any of its member governments, but they've maintained their non-interference policy until now.

At an emergency meeting two weeks ago, ASEAN members agreed to exclude Myanmar junta's chief Min Aung Hlaing from attending a regional summit later this month, on October 26-28. This was a major snub since nothing like it has ever happened before. The reason given is that they didn't want to legitimize the junta as the government of Myanmar. Instead, they said that they would invite a "non-political representative" to represent Myanmar.

Apparently this panicked the government of Myanmar, since two days later they released thousands of political prisoners. But it soon became obvious that this a ploy to regain the approval of ASEAN, since they re-arrested many of those prisoners since then. Myanmar has angrily rejected the claims of ASEAN, blaming them on "foreign intervention," referring to the United States. Myanmar may not have anyone at all representing Myanmar at the meeting.

The future of Myanmar (Burma)

Myanmar entered a generational Crisis era (fourth turning) in 2016, and is apparently already in a full-scale generational crisis war. The last crisis war, from 1948 to 1958, was a massive, bloody war involving multiple ethnic groups within Burma (Myanmar).

It now appears that Myanmar is entering a similar period. The army is currently massing in Myanmar's northwest, but analysts I've heard say that the army is expected to do the same in other regions of the country.

Sources:

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (24-Oct-2021) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Oct-2021 24-Oct-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma junta massing troops in northwest, preparing for mass slaughter

Myanmar/Burma junta massing troops in northwest, preparing for mass slaughter

ASEAN blocks Myanmar's attendance

The future of Myanmar (Burma)

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Oct-2021
24-Oct-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma junta massing troops in northwest, preparing for mass slaughter