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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Sep-2020
28-Sep-20 World View -- Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh

Web Log - September, 2020

28-Sep-20 World View -- Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh

Possible intervention by Turkey and Russia

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh
Possible intervention by Turkey and Russia

Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh

Baku, Ajerbaijan, in July 2020 -- demonstrators storm the national parliament, demanding war against Armemia (Getty)

Baku, Ajerbaijan, in July 2020 -- demonstrators storm the national parliament, demanding war against Armemia (Getty)

Heavy fighting has erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan, starting early Sunday. There were brief clashes in July of this year, and a larger clash in 2016, but this is the worst clash since the bloody Nagorno-Karabakh war ended in 1994. There are fears that this could spiral into a larger regional war, especially if Turkey or Russia gets involved. Turkey issued a statement that it would support Azerbaijan in a conflict, and this led Armenia to issue a warning of "full-scale war."

Nagorno-Karabakh is a region within Azerbaijan, but which has a mostly Armenian population which governs it. Nagorno-Karabakh ("highland Karabakh") is also called Karabakh by Azerbaijan, and the Republic of Artsakh by Armenia.

Even when both Armenia and Azerbaijan were member states of the Soviet Union, there was tension over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, an extremely bloody war broke out. Armenia invaded Azerbaijan and defeated the Azeri defenders of Nagorno-Karabakh, resulting in hundreds of thousands of people displaced or killed.

The war ended in 1994 because of Russia's mediation, but since then it's proceeded in a fairly typical way, with periods of peace alternating with periods of low-level violence that grow worse with each iteration. In typical situations, this process continues until at least 58 years after the end of the war, when the survivors of the war are no longer in power, and a new war breaks out. In this case, a new war would not be anticipated until at least 2052.

Sunday's clashes resulted in dozens of deaths, including civilians. As is usual in these situations, each side is blaming the other for firing the first shot. However, several analysts are pointing out that Azerbaijan has been signaling this kind of attack since July, while Armenia really has nothing to gain by launching this clash.

Possible intervention by Turkey and Russia

The countries are in a generational Awakening era, and so there are too many traumatized survivors of the last war still alive, and they will do everything possible to keep the low-level clashes from escalating into another full-scale war, despite demands for war from younger people to recover Karabakh, as shown in the photo at the beginning of this article.

However, that could change if other countries get involved. Russia, Iran, France and the EU have offered to mediate. Russia has good relations with both former Soviet countries, although it has closer relations with its Orthodox Christian sister Armenia and has a military base in Armenia. But Russia is expected to stay neutral unless Turkey gets involved.

Turkey issued several statements on Sunday that Turkey was ready to side with its Turkic brother, Azerbaijan, if war breaks out.

Turkey's Ministry of Defense said:

"In the struggle to protect the territorial integrity, we will remain in the ranks with our brothers, the Azerbaijani Turks, to the end."

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan wrote on his Twitter page:

"By carrying out another attack on Azerbaijan, Armenia reaffirmed that it is a great obstacle on the way to peace and stability. I call on the Armenian people to use their future against the government, which is pulling them into the abyss of disaster, and those who use them as puppets. At the same time, I call on the whole world to support Azerbaijan, which is fighting against despotism and injustice."

Armenia says that it will defend its "sacred homeland," the Republic of Artsakh, because "we must defend our homeland and our families." Armenia declared martial law and mobilized its male populations to prepare for war.

A full-scale war between Azerbaijan and Armenia would destablize the entire southern Caucasus region, and perhaps the Mideast as well.

The Generational Dynamics analysis is that this clash will fizzle within a few days or weeks or maybe a few months, and will not escalate into full-scale war. That could change if it turns into a proxy war between Turkey and Russia, two countries that are already at war in Syria and Libya, and have been historical enemies in the Caucasus for centuries.

---- Sources:

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (28-Sep-2020) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Sep-2020 28-Sep-20 World View -- Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh

Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh

Possible intervention by Turkey and Russia

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Sep-2020
28-Sep-20 World View -- Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh