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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Jun-2020
25-Jun-20 World View -- Both India and China reinforce armies in Ladakh, as China makes new claim

Web Log - June, 2020

25-Jun-20 World View -- Both India and China reinforce armies in Ladakh, as China makes new claim

Russia will speed up delivery of weapons systems to India

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from

Both India and China reinforce armies in Ladakh, as China makes new claim

China military exercise
China military exercise

The situation in Ladakh, on the China-India border, continues to worsen.

As I've been writing for some time, China and India have been mobilizing thousands of troops in Ladakh on either side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the nominal boundary between the two countries. Then, on June 15, Chinese forces ambushed Indian forces in Ladakh's Galwan Valley, using barbaric weapons consisting of bayonets, poles studded with steel nails, and wooden clubs wrapped with barbed wire, killing 20 unarmed Indian soldiers.

While officials from China and India are continuing negotiations for a "peaceful resolution" to the border conflict in Ladakh, both sides have been moving in even more reinforcements. According to Indian media, both the Chinese and India armies have moved troops and tanks into the regions adjacent to the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

According to a 1993 agreement between China and India:

"The two sides are of the view that the India-China boundary question shall be resolved through peaceful and friendly consultations. Neither side shall use or threaten to use force against the other by any means."

The Chinese took advantage of the unarmed Indians with bayonets, clubs wrapped with barbed wire, and rocks, despite the agreement that requires both sides to be unarmed. Last week, in response to the June 15 ambush, the Indians repudiated the agreement and changed the rules of engagement, so that the Indian soldiers are now armed.

I've said in the past that this dispute is remarkably similar to the 1937 Marco Polo Bridge incident that triggeredd World War II fighting between Japan and China. The Ladakh dispute looks more and more like it every day.

Chinese Communists make new claims

In the midst of the latest peace negotiations, the Chinese Defense Ministry made a new claim on Tuesday that the Galwan Valley in Ladakh is sovereign Chinese territory:

"China has sovereignty over the Galwan Valley region and the Chinese border troops have been patrolling and on duty in this region for many years."

The Indians were jolted by this new claim, and say that this is a lie, that Galwan Valley is well within Indian territory, and that this is the first time that China has made such a claim.

It seems that every day, I get a new reason to be impatient with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). I see the CCP lie all the time. They've repeatedly lied about the South China Sea that they've illegally annexed, they've repeatedly lied about the Uighurs that they're arresting, torturing and enslaving, and they've repeatedly lied about the Christians and Buddhists who are regularly beaten and jailed. They also lied for weeks about the Wuhan Coronavirus, and purposely infected hundreds of other countries, so that they wouldn't be alone in dealing with the virus. They're apparently congratulating themselves for this victory in infecting the world. As I wrote in my book, "War Between China and Japan," the Chinese Communists consider themselves to be the Master Race, and everyone else to be barbarians and vassals.

So the CCP are criminal thugs and liars, and if they're now claiming sovereignty to the Galwan Valley, then there is absolutely no reason to believe anything they say.

At any rate, nationalism is very high on both the Chinese and Indian sides, and neither side will back down. Both the Chinese and Indians are sending troops and tanks into the regions around the Galway Valley, and tensions are continuing to rise.

Neither Chinese nor Indian officials have made official statements about what happened on June 15, except that 20 Indian soldiers were killed. Chinese media have been claiming that China dealt a "heavy blow" to the Indians.

According to Chinese media:

"The PLA is a glorious army. After the founding of the People's Republic of China, it fought with the armies of the two superpowers, the US and the former Soviet Union. It has punished the Indian army for the latter's outright provocations. Some in India preach that the PLA, which has not fought a war for more than 30 years now, is an army that does not know how to fight. Their arrogance is frivolous. It is now clear who is the egg and who is the rock."

At a briefing on Wednesday, the Chinese finally officially admitted that they had casualties in the June 15 encounter:

"Exact casualties were not publicised as China did not want the media to play it up. Now was the time for both sides to find ways to de-escalate the situation and restore stability. Comparisons may trigger antagonism on both sides, which is not helpful."

There have been media reports of anywhere from 25-45 Chinese casualties on June 15. No wonder the Chinese don't want to admit the exact numbers.

Russia will speed up delivery of weapons systems to India

And so, Dear Reader, start placing your bets. How long can this "peaceful" standoff remain peaceful?

Donald Trump has offered to mediate, but it seems unlikely that his offer will be accepted.

The Russians have met with both sides, but India's Defense Minister said on Tuesday that the Russians will speed up delivery of advanced S-400 air defense systems and other weapons systems to India. This gives the impression that Russia is on India's side. This is not surprising, since Russia has its own problems with China making false claims to parts of Russia's Far East. China is even claiming that Vladivostok, the home of Russia's Pacific Fleet, is really China's sovereign territory.

This is also not surprising in view of the Generational Dynamics prediction, which I've stated repeatedly for many years, that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China will be allied with Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries versus the United States, allied with India, Russia and Iran. In particular, India and Russia are historic allies.

I keep seeing claims that Russia and China will be allied. There isn't a snowflake's chance in hell that will happen. The Russians have hated the Chinese ever since the Mongols defeated the Chinese in 1206, and then went on to attack and conquer almost all the Russian principalities, and made them bitter vassals of the Mongol Empire, in a relationship called the "Mongol Yoke." This hated period, two centuries long, has defined the relationship between the Russian and Chinese people forever. There is no possibility that China and Russia will remain "strategic partners" for long. In fact, Soviet Russia and China almost went to full-scale war as recently as the 1960s, just as China and India went to war in the 1960s. So Russia's delivery of advanced weapons systems to India is just one more step along the same path.

Another common claim is that World War III will be won by means of nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons can do an enormous amount of damage, and they will be heavily used. But a war cannot be won with just by bombing, even by bombing with nuclear weapons. The war, whether it occurs this year, next year, or later, will be won with ground forces, and nuclear weapons will be used tactically.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99


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