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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Jan-2020
29-Jan-20 World View -- Trump announces fantasy 'Peace to Prosperity' Mideast peace plan

Web Log - January, 2020

29-Jan-20 World View -- Trump announces fantasy 'Peace to Prosperity' Mideast peace plan

The Mideast peace process fantasy

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Donald Trump offers his 'Peace to Prosperity' Mideast peace plan


Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House to discuss the new Mideast peace plan (AFP)
Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House to discuss the new Mideast peace plan (AFP)

Here we go again.

President Donald Trump, in a joint White House celebration with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, announced a new Mideast peace plan.

I've seen how this works too many times. International politicians pressure the United States president to come up with a peace plan, saying that there will never be peace in the Mideast without White House "leadership." But as soon as the president offers a peace plan, those same international politicians slam the plan to make sure it's never implemented.

So Trump's 181 page Mideast peace plan has the following features:

In May 2017, Trump met with Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas, and they agreed to work together to reach a historic peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians. ( "4-May-17 World View -- Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks")

At the time, Trump said, "I look forward to welcoming [Abbas] back as a great marker of progress and, ultimately, toward the signing of a document with the Israelis and with Israel toward peace. We want to create peace between Israel and the Palestinians. We will get it done."

Abbas responded as follows: "Mr. President, we believe that we are capable and able to bring about success to our efforts because, Mr. President, you have the determination and you have the desire to see it become to fruition and to become successful. And we, Mr. President, inshallah, God willing, we are coming into a new opportunity, a new horizon that would enable us to bring about peace in that regard. ... Mr. President, its about time for Israel to end its occupation of our people and of our land after 50 years. We are the only remaining people in the world that still live under occupation."

It was pretty clear from just those two statements that it was never going to work. Now that Trump's peace agreement was being announced, Abbas refused to attend the ceremony.

His statement this time was far more colorful: "Trump is a dog and the son of a dog. They called me from Washington, and I did not pick up the phone. ... I said no, and I will continue to say no."

However, ambassadors from three Arab countries -- Oman, Bahrain, and United Arab Emirates (UAE) -- did show up at the meeting.

The UAE ambassador tweeted that the UAE believes Palestinians and Israelis can achieve lasting peace and genuine coexistence with the support of the international community.

Britain's Foreign Minister Dominic Raab said,"This is clearly a serious proposal, reflecting extensive time and effort. Only the leaders of Israel and the Palestinian territories can determine whether these proposals can meet the needs and aspirations of the people they represent."

However, Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhr said, "Trump's statement about Jerusalem is nonsense and Jerusalem will always be a land for the Palestinians ... The Palestinians will confront this deal and Jerusalem will remain a Palestinian land."

Israel's Security Minister Naftali Bennett said in response to the plan, "We will not allow for Israel, under any circumstances, to recognize a Palestinian state."

I heard several Palestinian protests complain particularly about the tunnels and bridges that are supposed to connect the two Palestinian territories, saying that these were extremely offensive.

Later, Mahmoud Abbas said, "After the nonsense that we heard today we say a thousand nos to the Deal of The Century."

There's no way that this Rube Goldberg peace proposal is going to survive.

The Mideast peace process fantasy

As I wrote in my very first Generational Dynamics analysis on May 1, 2003, when president George Bush published his "Mideast Roadmap to Peace," which described the details of a two-state solution, that it will never happen. Generational Dynamics predicts that the plan would fail because the Jews and the Arabs would be refighting the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.

According to the CIA World Factbook, the average age of the population in Gaza is 18, and in the West Bank is 21. (In America it's 38, in Germany 46, in Japan 47.) Most of the population in the Palestinian territories are children -- often children with guns. They call themselves the "Oslo Generation," because they were born after the 1993 Oslo peace accords that were supposed to bring peace to the Mideast, but have accomplished nothing. (Paragraph modified, 29-Jan)

Now think of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), who is 29 years old, who says one incredibly idiotic thing after another every day, and yet is effectively running the Democratic Party.

The point is that even if Mahmoud Abbas and other regional Arab leaders wanted to agree to Trump's peace plan, they wouldn't be supported by Oslo Generation Palestinians on the street.

This is the fallacy the media and politicians all make. They assume that the leader of a country can make a decision, and everyone will follow.

As I've written many times, it's a core principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes of politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the attitudes of the people. So in this case, the even if Abbas signed this peace deal, it would be meaningless.

The whole idea of a "Mideast peace process" and a "two-state solution" is a complete fantasy. It's never going to happen.

As long-time readers know, the Generational Dynamics prediction is that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Jews vs Arabs, Sunnis vs Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other. The exact scenario can't be predicted, but tensions across the Mideast continue to grow. The death of 84 year old Mahmoud Abbas would be very significant.

Sources:

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (29-Jan-2020) Permanent Link
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