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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Nov-07
Political chaos increases in Lebanon as Constitution fails to provide a new President

Web Log - November, 2007

Political chaos increases in Lebanon as Constitution fails to provide a new President

Hizbollah is threatening to cripple Lebanon's government indefinitely, now that Émile Lahoud's term as President ended on Friday, and the Parliament has been unable to select a successor.

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Lebanon is politically split between pro-Syrian and anti-Syrian politicians. Lahoud was a pro-Syrian politician. That's why Hizbollah was supporting him, and don't want him replaced with an anti-Syrian person.

The Lebanese Parliament is supposed to select a new President, but it currently has anti-Syrian majority.

Terrorists, most likely hired and funded by Syria, have been killing one anti-Syrian politician after another, beginning in 2005 with the massive Beirut explosion that killed Rafiq Hariri. There have been more of these killings, and the seventh killing occurred with a Beirut bomb blast in June. This has whittled the anti-Syrian majority in the Parliament down to just one or two votes.

That's presumably the reason why Hizbollah is threatening to prevent a vote indefinitely. They can do this by having their members boycott Parliament meetings, so there won't be a necessary quorum. Presumably that kind of stalling will give Syria the time necessary to kill off one or two more anti-Syrian members.

There has been renewed fear of civil war in Lebanon, like the horrible civil war that occurred in the 1980s.

Ever since last summer's Israeli war with Hizbollah in Lebanon, pundits have been almost unanimous in predicting a new civil war in Lebanon, especially since Hizbollah (supported by Iran and Syria) has been trying to trigger one. Apparently the pundits' reasoning is that if they had a horrible civil war 20 years ago, then they're ready, willing and able to have another.

I've said repeatedly that a civil war in Lebanon is absolutely impossible, since only one generation has passed since the genocidal Lebanese civil war of the 1980s. Lebanon is in a generational Awakening era, and so a civil war is impossible.

The Lebanese are terrified of another civil war. This is true of every country in a generational Awakening era. In this case, the survivors who lived through the 1980s are still, to this day, completely traumatized and horrified because of the barbarity of what ordinary Lebanese people did to each other. This was especially true in the explosive climax in 1982 when Christian Arab forces massacred and butchered hundreds or perhaps thousands of Palestinian refugees in camps in Sabra and Shatila.

It's this horror and fear of repeating the atrocities of the last crisis war that prevent the survivors from ever taking part in a new crisis war. That's the essence of a generational Awakening era.

So, as bad as the political turmoil becomes in Lebanon, there won't be another civil war, no matter how much the pundits talk about it.

To get a feel for how the current situation is affecting the Lebanese, think of the American election in the year 2000, when there wasn't a clear winner chosen on election night.

It's extremely dangerous for a country to be without a leader, since decisions can't be properly made. It was certainly one of the principal motivations of the US Supreme Court at that time to make sure that the indecisive state didn't continue for long. And there are many bitter feelings still continuing to this day over the way it turned out.

That's the situation in Lebanon right now. The country will continue on with only a partial government until some compromise can be found to select a new President. But there won't be a civil war.

(26-Nov-07) Permanent Link
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