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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Aug-06
UN Security Council declares Lebanon peace while war expands

Web Log - August, 2006

UN Security Council declares Lebanon peace while war expands

Israel, Lebanon and Hizbollah have promised to end the war on Monday.

It's a strange world when everyone celebrates a ceasefire, and the war gets worse than ever.

But that's what's been happening since Friday evening, when the United Nations Security council resolution was adopted unanimously.

Immediately afterwards, Israel substantially expanded its military assault, tripling its ground forces in Lebanon to as many as 30,000, and increased the rate of air strikes.

During the day Saturday, Israel, Lebanon and Hizbollah all reluctantly agreed to abide by the ceasefire, which is to take effect on Monday morning at 1 am, New York time.

Israel's intention in expanding its military assault was to get as much accomplished by Sunday evening as possible, before the ceasefire took effect, and to control as much territory in southern Lebanon as possible.

Here are the key points of the U.N. Security Council resolution:

As I indicated before, in my analysis of the Lebanese war, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the two belligerents have been using sharply contrasting styles in the war.

Israel has been fighting in a "hot" crisis war style, furiously bombing infrastructure, calling up new reserves every day, confronting Hizbollah terrorists on their own soil, and now feeling very anxious about the U.N. peace deal.

Iran/Hizbollah terrorists have been fighting in a "cool" non-crisis war style, planning for six years, launching missiles from the comfort of home, manipulating and drawing in Israel, forcing them to kill civilians, and now methodically using the U.N. deal as a pawn to advance its longer-term strategy.

Either style might win, as I discussed in contrasting this war to the burgeoning civil war in Sri Lanka.

Many commentators have been claiming that Hizbollah has been winning the war, simply by surviving Israel's assault. In fact, a recent poll conducted in Israel indicates that Israelis still strongly support the war, but are questioning the conduct of the war. On the other hand, Israel itself has claimed that it's struck massive blows to Hizbollah.

It will be VERY interesting to see how all of this rolls out in the next week. There's only one thing we can be absolutely certain of: This ceasefire won't last. (13-Aug-06) Permanent Link
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