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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Jun-2014
15-Jun-14 World View -- Iran asks U.S. to intervene in Iraq, and offers to help

Web Log - June, 2014

15-Jun-14 World View -- Iran asks U.S. to intervene in Iraq, and offers to help

Ukraine conflict escalates sharply after plane shot down, killing 49

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Iran asks U.S. to intervene in Iraq, and offers to help
U.S. wholesale prices unexpectedly decreased in May
Ukraine conflict escalates sharply after plane shot down, killing 49

Iran asks U.S. to intervene in Iraq, and offers to help

Large crowds of Shie volunteers in Baghdad prepared to fight ISIS (BBC)

Large crowds of Shie volunteers in Baghdad prepared to fight ISIS (BBC)

Here's a Saturday afternoon BBC interview with Professor Fawaz Gerges, London School of Economics, that I transcribed, in which both the interviewer and the interviewee expressed utter astonishment at the day's news:

INTERVIEWER: "Let's start with Iran. Now they say they're willing to cooperate with the United States. I can't believe those words are coming out of my mouth. What would be the motivation behind that? They do simply fear ISIS, and what could happen to Iraq? ..."
GERGES: "One of the most important developments to come out of this particular crisis is the convergence of interests of the United States and Iran. Both powers have vested interests in stopping the ISIS surge. Iraq is the most pivotal ally of Iran. And the United States fears that ISIS could really present a threat not only to Iraq's integrity, but for regional stabilities.
I cannot believe it myself. The Iranian leadership OPENLY and PUBLICLY calling on the United States to intervene in Iraq. A radical departure from Iran's previous position.
Remember, Chris, for your viewers, Iran played a fundamental role in nudging its allies to force the US out in 2011. Now, both powers -- and I have no doubt in my mind that both powers are talking secretly. Even now, both powers are not talking about it, because they're planning contingency plans, because only the United States and Iran could regroup and help the Iraqi forces to consolidate that power."

What they were talking about is a speech by Iran's president Hassan Rouhani saying that they would help the U.S. confront "terrorist groups" in Iraq and Syria, referring principally to the Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). According to Rouhani:

"If the Iraqi government asks us for help, we may provide any assistance the Iraqi nation would like us to provide in the fight against terrorism.
All countries need to embark on joint effort regarding terrorism.
At the moment, it's the government of Iraq and the people of Iraq that are fighting terrorism.
We have not seen the US do anything for now. Any time the Americans start to take action against terrorist groups, we can consider that."

There are reports that Iran has already sent two battalions of troops into Iraq, though they deny it.

President Obama is offering to help Iraq's president Nouri al-Maliki with the U.S. military, but with "no boots on the ground." The aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush has been moved into the Persian Gulf to provide Obama with options for possible airstrikes.

We now have a sectarian Sunni versus Shia conflict growing in the Mideast, and it looks like Iran and the U.S. are going to be allies. Reports indicate the White House have been "surprised" by how quickly all of this is happening. Obviously the White House doesn't read my web site, because these are all things that I've been predicting for years, based on Generational Dynamics analyses.

The Generational Dynamics web site is unique in the world. I'll repeat the challenge that I've issued repeatedly since 2005: Find me a politician, analyst, journalist or web site anywhere in the world with anything close to the predictive success of Generational Dynamics and this web site. I know that none exists, because I've looked.

So those of you on both the left and the right who have send me hate mail from time to time should be aware that you're wrong and I'm right -- or more precisely, Generational Dynamics is right. Anyone can have an ideological opinion and rant about it, but Generational Dynamics is not an ideological opinion, but a methodology that applies System Dynamics and Chaos Theory to generational trends and flows, and always seems to be right.

I'm completely schizophrenic about this. The part of me that's into math and computers and analytics is thrilled that Generational Dynamics seems to work consistently. But the part of me that's human and deals every day with stories about starving children, schools blown to smithereens, and "industrial strength" torture is extremely saddened and depressed. I have little doubt that one day, undoubtedly after my death, Generational Dynamics will be regarded as a major advance in historical analysis. BBC and Independent (London)

U.S. wholesale prices unexpectedly decreased in May

The Labor Department reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI), the measure of how much wholesale prices are increasing, fell 0.2% in May, indicating that wholesale prices fell, rather than increasing. That is, instead of seeing inflation, we're seeing deflation. Once month's data isn't necessarily dispositive, but the PPI has been close to zero for months, and gone negative four times in the last year.

The prediction that I've been making for years is that the economy is in a deflationary spiral. This directly contradicts almost all mainstream economists and politicians who have been predicting inflation or hyperinflation because of low interest rates and quantitative easing. As in the case of Iran being our ally in a Sunni-Shia sectarian conflict, Generational Dynamics has been consistently right and mainstream economists, pundits, analysts and politicians have been wrong. Bloomberg and Reuters

Ukraine conflict escalates sharply after plane shot down, killing 49

Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko vowed to retaliate against pro-Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine, after a military plane was shot down by a shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile, presumably supplied by Russia, killing 49 people on board on Saturday morning.

The missile attack triggered a pro-Ukrainian protest in Kiev that turned violent. Several hundred protesters hurled eggs and paint at the Russian embassy in Kiev, and other protesters turned over cars that carried diplomatic plates. Kiev police looked on and did nothing to stop the violent protests.

The fighting continues to escalate in Ukraine, thanks to tanks, heavy weapons and "volunteers" supplied by Russia. Ukraine and Russia are in a generational Crisis era, so it's quite possible that the conflict will spiral into a full-scale war. BBC

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Jun-14 World View -- Iran asks U.S. to intervene in Iraq, and offers to help thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (15-Jun-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Jun-2014 15-Jun-14 World View -- Iran asks U.S. to intervene in Iraq, and offers to help

Iran asks U.S. to intervene in Iraq, and offers to help

U.S. wholesale prices unexpectedly decreased in May

Ukraine conflict escalates sharply after plane shot down, killing 49

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Jun-2014
15-Jun-14 World View -- Iran asks U.S. to intervene in Iraq, and offers to help