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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Feb-08
In Kenya, Kofi Annan's mediation talks collapse

Web Log - February, 2008

In Kenya, Kofi Annan's mediation talks collapse

Condoleezza Rice promises to take action, but exactly what is she threatening?

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As I described when the violence first broke out, Kenya's last generational Crisis war was the Mau-Mau rebellion that ended in 1956.

Today, 52 years later, there are still a number of "elder" leaders around, aged 57 and above, who still remember the utter horror of the Mau-Mau rebellion, and will do anything possible to keep anything similar from happening again. Their children and grandchildren, however, don't feel so strongly.

Former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan has been meeting with the "elders," and they're willing to look for a compromise, but they'll be killed by their younger supporters if the compromise goes too far.

Annan's effort never had a chance, as we've said. Kenya is UNLIKELY to spiral into a full-fledged ethnic civil war at this time, but in the next 5-6 years, when these aforementioned "elders" all disappear, a full-fledged ethnic war is a certainty.

So now Kofi Annan's mediation talks have collapsed.

Kofi Annan, you'll recall, considers the US to be the fount of most of the evil in the world. He condemned the US for intervening in Iraq, and condemns the US even more for NOT interfering in Darfur.

And now, Annan has one more failure to add to his resumé. He was mired in the mud of Saddam Hussein's money-for-oil scandal, and he whined for years about the Darfur civil war while it only got worse. Has he really ever accomplished anything except to pontificate?

Well, what's really shocking is the statement by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. It goes through several paragraphs of diplomatic boilerplate, and then concludes:

"I want to emphasize that the future of our relationship with both sides and their legitimacy hinges on their cooperation to achieve this political solution. In that regard, we are exploring a wide range of possible actions. We will draw our own conclusions about who is responsible for lack of progress and take necessary steps. We will also exert leadership with the United Nations, the African Union, the European Union, and others to ensure that the political solution the Kenyan people deserve is achieved."

What "necessary steps" are we going to take? Omigod, we're not going to send in American troops, are we? I know that President Bush has been making some vague statements expressing sorrow that we didn't send troops into Darfur. He isn't looking to salve his guilty conscience in Kenya, is he?

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what's going to happen in Kenya is perfectly clear. There's a major fault line between ethnic groups -- The Kikuyus and their allies versus the Luos and their allies. The low-level violence we've been seeing will continue for weeks or months or years until something triggers the new genocidal crisis war that we've been referencing. Then there'll be massive slaughter between these ethnic groups. Probably one side will win, and the other side will come close to being exterminated. That's absolutely certain; only the exact dates are in doubt, although it's pretty certain within 5-10 years.

But all this is going to happen with or without Kofi Annan, with or without American troops. It's already "in the cards," as they say.

In that time frame, the "clash of civilizations" world war will be in full swing. We'll be dealing with our own wars of extermination. Let's hope that we don't get mired in a Kenya quagmire before then. (27-Feb-08) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Feb-08 In Kenya, Kofi Annan's mediation talks collapse

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Feb-08
In Kenya, Kofi Annan's mediation talks collapse