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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-May-07

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Riots in Karachi, Pakistan, threaten Musharraf's presidency

Riots in Karachi, Pakistan, threaten Musharraf's presidency

Thirty people were killed and hundreds were injured on Saturday in riots pitting the supporters of Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf, running for re-election as President in the fall, against supporters of the opposing parties.

Top: Riots in Karachi on Saturday. Bottom: President Pervez Musharraf and Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry (Source: CNN)

The riots have been recurring, starting from the days following Musharraf's March 9 suspension of the country's Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry. Chaudhry has now become the symbolic leader of the opposition.

As I explained at that time, Musharraf's position in Pakistan is a major stabilizing factor in the region, and this is strongly affected by the fact that Musharraf was born in 1943, and has personal memory of World War II and the violent genocidal war between India and Pakistan over the disputed Kashmir and Jammu regions. (Musharraf's year of birth corrected on 20-May. Sorry for the error.)

Indian subcontinent, showing the disputed regions of Kashmir and Jammu.

If Musharraf disappears, for whatever reason, then he will be replaced by someone from a younger generation who will be much more militant towards India, and the short-term probability of nuclear war between India and Pakistan will increase substantially.

Generational Dynamics predicts there will indeed be a new genocidal crisis war between India and Pakistan, and since both countries possess nuclear weapons, there's little doubt that they will be used. It's impossible to predict when such a war would begin, but if Musharraf disappears and is replaced by someone from a younger generation, things will certainly start moving along. (13-May-07) Permanent Link
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