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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Feb-06
Bird flu spreads through Northern Iraq, with 162 suspected human cases

Web Log - February, 2006

Bird flu spreads through Northern Iraq, with 162 suspected human cases

After first denying that bird flu was involved, WHO now says that a teen girl died of bird flu last month.

When 15 year old Shangen Abdul Qader of Northern Iraq died last month, the U.N. World Health Organization (WHO) performed the necessary steps and announced that the girl had not been suffering from bird flu.

Kurdish officials in Northern Iraq were still suspicious, since the region is near Turkey, where bird flu is becoming widespread and firmly established, and because the family kept chickens in the house, and some of them had died. Instead, WHO diagnosed the cause of death as cardiovascular disease.

However, WHO on Thursday finally confirmed that she did indeed die of the deadly H5N1 virus. And now, WHO officials are overseeing the slaughter of 500,000 birds, to prevent the spread of the disease.

Furthermore, the pan-Arab daily al-Hayat announced that 162 more people are under suspicion of having contracted the virus.

What this all shows is how confusing the situation is. It's been very strange, and entirely unrealistic, to believe that bird flu has affected Turkey from the the east to west, but somehow the infections have stopped at the Turkish border, with few or no reports of infections in neighboring countries. The explosion in Northern Iraq illustrates the problem - that many countries are simply not testing for H5N1, and so the world doesn't know what's happening until human beings start dying.

Bird flu may spread far into Africa and Europe by spring, according to a press release by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

I have to chuckle at what an FAO spokesman is quoted as saying:

"Fighting the avian influenza virus in animals is the most effective and cost-effective way to reduce the likelihood of H5N1 mutating or reassorting to cause a human flu pandemic. ... Governments will fail in combating avian influenza if they don’t give their veterinary services the political support as well as the technical and financial means to fight the virus. Early warning systems, swift interventions and preventive measures will remain weak and inadequate without strong, centrally organized veterinary services."

This probably makes sense, but I'm imagining President Bush addressing the nation and saying, "And tonight, my fellow Americans, I ask the Congress to provide $10 billion to veterinarians around the country to prepare to combat bird flu." Somehow, I don't think it's going to happen.

On a more serious note, the press release contains the following text:

The avian influenza virus could become entrenched in the Black Sea, Caucasus and Near East regions through trade and movement of people and animals and it could be further spread by migratory birds particularly coming from Africa in the spring. ... "FAO is concerned that with trade, the movement of people and animals and migratory birds, new countries could become infected," [said a spokesman.] “Countries in Africa deserve special attention. In Turkey, the virus has already reached the crossroads of Asia, Europe and Africa, and there is a real risk of further spread. If it were to become rooted in the African countryside, the consequences for a continent already devastated by hunger and poverty could be truly catastrophic."

The problem with this text is that it says that birds coming from Africa this spring could spread the disease through migration to Europe and Asia. Thus, in this text, the FAO appears to be admitting that it believes that H5N1 is already established in Africa, even though no such announcements have been made.

With the Chinese and Vietnamese Lunar New Year celebrations just finishing up, and with all the additional opportunities for gene recombination in the Mideast and Africa, it's possible that a dangerous human to human mutation could occur, or could even have already occurred, and we might not know until a pandemic starts spreading around the world uncontrollably. At that point, panic will set in worldwide.

For that reason, I once again strongly urge my readers to prepare for an H5N1 pandemic or for any kind of emergency (think of hurricane Katrina) by stocking up on food and water and currency and batteries for the entire household to live on for 2-3 months. This may cost a thousand dollars per person, but it's not wasted money since you can always eat the food later if no emergency occurs. Get canned or dried food that can last a long time in storage, and get a large container for storing water. Keep in mind that stored water becomes impure with time, so you'll also need some purifying tablets or bleach to kill bacteria in the water when the time comes. Finally, get whatever medicines you'll need to take care of yourself and your family for a long period of time. (3-Feb-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Feb-06 Bird flu spreads through Northern Iraq, with 162 suspected human cases

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Feb-06
Bird flu spreads through Northern Iraq, with 162 suspected human cases