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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Dec-05

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European Union "make or break" summit begins today

European Union "make or break" summit begins today

It ought to be a great show in Brussels as anti-Blair acrimony continues unabated.

It seems to have settled down to this:

• British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who is just about to finish his six-month turn in the rotating EU Presidency, has agreed to a small reduction in the "rebate" that the EU pays to Britain every year in lieu of agricultural subsidies.
• France, Poland and other EU members are demanding that he agree to give up the rebate completely. He won't because he can't - it's domestically impossible.
• Blair will only give up more rebate if France and other countries give up some of their much larger agricultural subsidy. They won't.
• French President Jacques Chirac can't even think about agreeing to reduced agricultural subsidies after the recent violent mass riots in Paris.
• Blair and Chirac really hate each other.
• In fact, a lot of people in Europe seem to hate Blair these days - even more than they hate George Bush.

So the stage is set for a replay of the vitriolic confrontation of June 17.

The "European project" is dead, especially thanks to the rejection of the European constitution by French and Dutch voters. And now it's looking more and more like the budget process for 2007 is almost dead.

Generational Dynamics predicts that there'll be a new European war, probably between France and England, just as there have been wars between France and England for centuries. We can see the anger and hatred building as the weeks and months go by.

So it ought to be a great show in Brussels for the next two days. (15-Dec-05) Permanent Link
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