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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Aug-05

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Europe scrambles for cover as bird flu speeds past Asia

Europe scrambles for cover as bird flu speeds past Asia

Holland and Germany order farmers to keep all birds indoors, in order to protect their meat industry. An infestation of bird flu would might require the culling (killing) of millions of chickens, ducks, turkeys, geese and other birds, and could cost Holland alone hundreds of millions or billions of euros.

The reason for the concern is clear from this map from the Recombinomics web site:

Bird flu outbreaks as of 23-Aug-2005(Source: Recombinomics.com)

The May version of this map was practically bare, appearing mainly in the the Qinghai Lake region of China (on the far right of the above map).

The July map (see the yellow circles in the map above) showed the first major signs of the virus spreading toward Europe.

The August 23 map, shown above, makes it clear that Europe is not far off, especially when the massive bird migrations begin in the next couple of weeks.

However, the European Union and other European countries are not following Holland's example. According to the EU Directorate for Consumer Health and Protection, the probability of bird flu reaching Europe is "relatively low." I guess they haven't seen the map above.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 30-May-2005
W. Europe	1	Arab Israeli	2
Russia Caucasus	2	Kashmir	1
China	2	North Korea	3
Financial	3	Bird flu	3
Key: 1=Low risk 2=Med 3=High 4=Active

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization has issued the strongest warning yet of the danger of bird flu mutating to a form that allows one human to pass it to another. The virus has been mutating anyway, and is becoming increasingly efficient in spreading from region to region among birds, and has spread to other animals. It's already spread to several new species, including cats and tigers.

A mutation allowing human to human transmission could happen next week, next month or next year, and now seems all but certain. (24-Aug-05) Permanent Link
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