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The PPI, which measures wholesale prices, increased by 0.1% in September.
The "core index," which excludes food and energy items, increased by 0.3%. Both figures had fallen in August.
For months, analysts have been predicting increasing inflation, based on economic models that were developed since the 1970s. However, longer term models are required to understand why inflation has been falling recently, despite very low interest rates and very high oil prices.
The following table shows the values of the PPI and CPI for each month so far in 2004:
Changes from preceding month
2004
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug Sept
----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
PPI .6 .1 .6 .7 .7 -.3 .1 -.1 .1
----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
PPI "Core index" .3 -.1 .3 .1 .4 .2 .1 -.1 .3
----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
CPI .5 .3 .5 .2 .6 .3 -.1 .1 n/a
----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
CPI "Core index" .2 .2 .4 .3 .2 .1 .1 .1 n/a
----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
The September Consumer Price Index (retail prices) will be available later this month.
As we've previously said, if you
look at long-term trends instead of just a few months, we're actually
in a long-term deflationary period. We actually expect prices to
fall by 30% in the next few years.
(18-Oct-04)
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