Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Jan-2018
21-Jan-18 World View -- Turkey begins invasion of Syria while China lies about 'indisputable sovereignty'

Web Log - January, 2018

21-Jan-18 World View -- Turkey begins invasion of Syria while China lies about 'indisputable sovereignty'

Summary of major Generational Dynamics predictions

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from

Turkey begins its air and ground invasion of Syria's Afrin

Map showing Syrian cities of Afrin and Manbij, both Kurdish YPG strongholds, and targets of Turkey's planned invasions (al-Jazeera)
Map showing Syrian cities of Afrin and Manbij, both Kurdish YPG strongholds, and targets of Turkey's planned invasions (al-Jazeera)

While we're stuck with suffering through the unbelievably pathetic clown circus going on in Washington, there are actually things going on in other parts of the world.

Turkey's military operation against Syria's Afrin region that we described yesterday has begun. Turkish warplanes have conducted hundreds of airstrikes at Kurdish YPG (People's Protection Units) targets in Afrin. Turkey-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) militias are moving into Afrin to conduct the ground war. The FSA consists of Arabs and Turkmens opposed to the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.

Russia says that it has moved its 300 or so troops out of Afrin to safety. Russia, which controls the airspace over Afrin, is not stopping Turkey's airstrikes, indicating that Russia is giving tacit approval to Turkey's operation.

Turkey's own troops have not crossed the border into Syria, although there have been reports of trucks carrying Turkish tanks crossing the border to Afrin. Turkey would have no reason to commit its own troops unless the FSA troops started getting bogged down.

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that the after Afrin the next target will be Manbij. Although Manbij is west of the Euphrates River Valley, there are American units in the region, so a clash with Americans would be a possibility, although it's likely that both sides would do everything to avoid it.

In a speech on Saturday, Erdogan said:

"The promises made to us over Manbij were not kept. So nobody can object if we do what is necessary.

Later we will, step by step, clear our country up to the Iraqi border from this terror filth that is trying to besiege our country."

This refers to several American promises that were not kept. The Americans promised that the YPG would be armed and trained only until the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) was defeated in Raqqa, but is continuing to arm and train YPG fighters for its Border Security Force (BSF). The Americans promised that they would withdraw as soon as ISIS was defeated, but now are saying that they will stay indefinitely, rather than risk repeating the blunder made with the 2011 withdrawal from Iraq.

Turkey's ground invasion is highly risky. Both the FSA militias and the YPG militias are battle hardened, and the victory in Afrin may not be as quick as Erdogan is fantasizing. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Al Jazeera and Hurriyet

Related Articles

China lies about 'indisputable sovereignty' in new confrontation in South China Sea

Map showing that the Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal is far from China, but within the Philippines EEZ (Inquirer)
Map showing that the Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal is far from China, but within the Philippines EEZ (Inquirer)

According to Lu Kang, the spokesman for China's foreign ministry:

"On the night of January 17, the USS Hopper missile destroyer sailed within 12 nautical miles off China's Huangyan Dao [i.e., the Philippines' Scarborough Shoal] without gaining permission from the Chinese government. ...

China has indisputable sovereignty over Huangyan Dao [Scarborough Shoal] and the adjacent waters."

Lu Kang is a serial liar. Whether the subject is Doklam Plateau, the South China Sea, Taiwan, or North Korea, Lu Kang says any nonsense he wants, with no regard for the facts.

China has no sovereignty whatsoever over the Scarborough Shoal. It's within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Philippines, as shown by the above map. In 2016, Lu Kang and China were completely humiliated when United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague ruled that all of China's claims in the South China Sea were hoaxes and lies.

Even the word "indisputable" is a lie on its face. Obviously China's claims are disputable, have been disputed, and have been shown to be false. Lu Kang is a serial liar.

American naval spokesman Commander Nicole Schwegman responded:

"The United States conducts routine and regular FONOPs [Freedom of Navigation Operations], as we have done in the past and will continue to do so in the future.

We have a comprehensive FONOP program under which U.S. forces challenge excessive maritime claims across the globe to demonstrate our commitment to uphold the rights, freedoms and lawful uses of the sea and airspace guaranteed to all nations under international law. FONOPs are not about any one country, nor are they about making political statements. FONOPS are designed to comply with international law and not threaten the lawful security interest of coastal States."

That the US simply ignores China's false claims in the South China Sea is undoubtedly very humiliating to the Chinese, who become infuriated whenever anyone challenges their false claims.

This is the second time this week that the Chinese were humiliated by an American action. The US and Canada co-sponsored an international meeting to discuss the North Korea crisis, and China was totally infuriated that it wasn't invited to attend. Foreign Ministry of China and Inquirer (Manila) and ABC News

Related Articles

Summary of major Generational Dynamics predictions

The following is a summary of the major Generational Dynamics predictions that I've posted in the past. None of this is new, except that all of these predictions are listed together in one place. These predictions have been essentially unchanged for over ten years.

First, by way of introduction, although I sometimes call myself the gloomiest person in the world, it's worth noting that there are other forecasts that are gloomier than mine. These include the following:

So my oft-stated Generational Dynamics predictions are these:

Related Articles

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Jan-18 World View -- Turkey begins invasion of Syria while China lies about 'indisputable sovereignty' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (21-Jan-2018) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Web Log Summary - 2018
Web Log Summary - 2017
Web Log Summary - 2016
Web Log Summary - 2015
Web Log Summary - 2014
Web Log Summary - 2013
Web Log Summary - 2012
Web Log Summary - 2011
Web Log Summary - 2010
Web Log Summary - 2009
Web Log Summary - 2008
Web Log Summary - 2007
Web Log Summary - 2006
Web Log Summary - 2005
Web Log Summary - 2004

Web Log - December, 2018
Web Log - November, 2018
Web Log - October, 2018
Web Log - September, 2018
Web Log - August, 2018
Web Log - July, 2018
Web Log - June, 2018
Web Log - May, 2018
Web Log - April, 2018
Web Log - March, 2018
Web Log - February, 2018
Web Log - January, 2018
Web Log - December, 2017
Web Log - November, 2017
Web Log - October, 2017
Web Log - September, 2017
Web Log - August, 2017
Web Log - July, 2017
Web Log - June, 2017
Web Log - May, 2017
Web Log - April, 2017
Web Log - March, 2017
Web Log - February, 2017
Web Log - January, 2017
Web Log - December, 2016
Web Log - November, 2016
Web Log - October, 2016
Web Log - September, 2016
Web Log - August, 2016
Web Log - July, 2016
Web Log - June, 2016
Web Log - May, 2016
Web Log - April, 2016
Web Log - March, 2016
Web Log - February, 2016
Web Log - January, 2016
Web Log - December, 2015
Web Log - November, 2015
Web Log - October, 2015
Web Log - September, 2015
Web Log - August, 2015
Web Log - July, 2015
Web Log - June, 2015
Web Log - May, 2015
Web Log - April, 2015
Web Log - March, 2015
Web Log - February, 2015
Web Log - January, 2015
Web Log - December, 2014
Web Log - November, 2014
Web Log - October, 2014
Web Log - September, 2014
Web Log - August, 2014
Web Log - July, 2014
Web Log - June, 2014
Web Log - May, 2014
Web Log - April, 2014
Web Log - March, 2014
Web Log - February, 2014
Web Log - January, 2014
Web Log - December, 2013
Web Log - November, 2013
Web Log - October, 2013
Web Log - September, 2013
Web Log - August, 2013
Web Log - July, 2013
Web Log - June, 2013
Web Log - May, 2013
Web Log - April, 2013
Web Log - March, 2013
Web Log - February, 2013
Web Log - January, 2013
Web Log - December, 2012
Web Log - November, 2012
Web Log - October, 2012
Web Log - September, 2012
Web Log - August, 2012
Web Log - July, 2012
Web Log - June, 2012
Web Log - May, 2012
Web Log - April, 2012
Web Log - March, 2012
Web Log - February, 2012
Web Log - January, 2012
Web Log - December, 2011
Web Log - November, 2011
Web Log - October, 2011
Web Log - September, 2011
Web Log - August, 2011
Web Log - July, 2011
Web Log - June, 2011
Web Log - May, 2011
Web Log - April, 2011
Web Log - March, 2011
Web Log - February, 2011
Web Log - January, 2011
Web Log - December, 2010
Web Log - November, 2010
Web Log - October, 2010
Web Log - September, 2010
Web Log - August, 2010
Web Log - July, 2010
Web Log - June, 2010
Web Log - May, 2010
Web Log - April, 2010
Web Log - March, 2010
Web Log - February, 2010
Web Log - January, 2010
Web Log - December, 2009
Web Log - November, 2009
Web Log - October, 2009
Web Log - September, 2009
Web Log - August, 2009
Web Log - July, 2009
Web Log - June, 2009
Web Log - May, 2009
Web Log - April, 2009
Web Log - March, 2009
Web Log - February, 2009
Web Log - January, 2009
Web Log - December, 2008
Web Log - November, 2008
Web Log - October, 2008
Web Log - September, 2008
Web Log - August, 2008
Web Log - July, 2008
Web Log - June, 2008
Web Log - May, 2008
Web Log - April, 2008
Web Log - March, 2008
Web Log - February, 2008
Web Log - January, 2008
Web Log - December, 2007
Web Log - November, 2007
Web Log - October, 2007
Web Log - September, 2007
Web Log - August, 2007
Web Log - July, 2007
Web Log - June, 2007
Web Log - May, 2007
Web Log - April, 2007
Web Log - March, 2007
Web Log - February, 2007
Web Log - January, 2007
Web Log - December, 2006
Web Log - November, 2006
Web Log - October, 2006
Web Log - September, 2006
Web Log - August, 2006
Web Log - July, 2006
Web Log - June, 2006
Web Log - May, 2006
Web Log - April, 2006
Web Log - March, 2006
Web Log - February, 2006
Web Log - January, 2006
Web Log - December, 2005
Web Log - November, 2005
Web Log - October, 2005
Web Log - September, 2005
Web Log - August, 2005
Web Log - July, 2005
Web Log - June, 2005
Web Log - May, 2005
Web Log - April, 2005
Web Log - March, 2005
Web Log - February, 2005
Web Log - January, 2005
Web Log - December, 2004
Web Log - November, 2004
Web Log - October, 2004
Web Log - September, 2004
Web Log - August, 2004
Web Log - July, 2004
Web Log - June, 2004

Copyright © 2002-2017 by John J. Xenakis.