Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Aug-2015
22-Aug-15 World View -- Macedonia declares state of emergency along border with Greece

Web Log - August, 2015

22-Aug-15 World View -- Macedonia declares state of emergency along border with Greece

Wall Street stocks in free fall on Friday

This morning's key headlines from

Greece ferries thousands of migrants from islands to Port of Piraeus

The ferry Eleftherios Venizelos with Syrian migrants on board leaves Lesbos for Greece's mainland
The ferry Eleftherios Venizelos with Syrian migrants on board leaves Lesbos for Greece's mainland

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about 'total chaos' on Greece's islands Kos, Chios and Lesbos, because thousands of migrants were arriving at the islands from Turkey, crossing the Aegean Sea in rubber boats. After human rights activists expressed outrage at the inhuman conditions on the islands, Greek authorities agreed to send a ferry to carry them to the mainland.

On Friday, the ferry Eleftherios Venizelos carried about 2,200 migrants from the island of Lesbos to the port city of Piraeus on the mainland. Buses were waiting to carry the refugees, many of them families with young children, to train statements. Typically, they head northwards by train or bus to the city of Thessaloniki, hoping to travel through Macedonia and Serbia into Hungary and the Schengen zone. Reuters

Macedonia declares state of emergency along border with Greece

It was just a few days ago that I wrote about A train station in Macedonia that has become the new European migrant choke point. Two weeks ago, there were 500-600 migrants per day crossing the border into Macedonia from Greece, having arrived in the Greek city of Thessaloniki from Syria or Afghanistan or Iraq, through Turkey. But in the last few days, the number of migrants has increased to 3,000-3,500 per day.

Up until now, the Macedonian authorities have been sanguine about the migrants arriving from Greece, because almost none had any intention of remaining in Macedonia, but were planning to take the train to northern Serbia and then cross the border into Hungary. When they're in Hungary, they're in the Schengen zone, which means that they can travel from country to country with no visa or passport restrictions.

It's believed that the enormous surge in migrants arriving at the Macedonian border has been triggered by Hungary's announcement in June that they would build a fence along the border between Serbia and Hungary. Migrants have been rushing to cross into Hungary before the fence has been built.

But as of Friday, Macedonian border forces blocked migrants from crossing the border, beating them back with truncheons, riot shields, and teargas. Razor wire is now being rolled along the border to prevent people from entering. Macedonia has declared a state of emergency, meaning that the country's army will be called on to help deal with the crisis.

Human rights activists are expressing outrage. According to one, "Macedonian authorities are responding as if they were dealing with rioters rather than refugees who have fled conflict and persecution."

Macedonian authorities say that going to permit a limited number of migrants to enter Macedonia each day.

Unless I'm misunderstanding the situation, that means that within a few days there are going to be perhaps tens of thousands of migrants on the Greek side of the border, waiting to enter Macedonia. This might not end well. BBC and CNN

New fires and masses of dead fish still plague Tianjin China

Masses of dead fish wash up on river shore in Tianjin
Masses of dead fish wash up on river shore in Tianjin

Four new fires broke out on Friday morning at the site of the massive explosions in Tianjin, China, two weeks ago ( "13-Aug-15 World View -- Massive explosion in Tianjin highlights China's dismal industrial safety record")

New fires keep arising from the blast site, which is scattered with smoldering chemicals and flammable substances. Almost 5,000 soldiers and armed police officers have been sent to Tianjin to clean up the tons of dangerous chemicals.

Chinese officials had declared the air and the drinking water around Tianjin to be safe, but then tests showed that cyanide in the water and air were hundreds of times higher than acceptable levels.

Masses of dead fish, numbering in the thousands, were found on Friday to be piling up on the shores of a river in Tianjin, six kilometers from the site of the explosions. Chinese officials say that dead fish are normal this time of year, but local residents say that they've never before witnessed so many dead fish in the area.

The disaster has caused China's State Council to order nationwide inspections of facilities handling dangerous chemicals and explosives. According to government announcements, more than 100 chemical firms across seven provinces have been told to suspend operations or shut down due to safety violations in the recent days." Xinhua and Asia Times and Shanghaiist

Wall Street stocks in free fall on Friday

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 530 points on Friday, the biggest one-day plunge in years, as part of a global selloff. (See "21-Aug-15 World View -- Kazakhstan joins the 'currency wars' as global stocks plummet".) China's Shanghai stock index fell another 4.3% on Friday, adding to the 8.2% plunge in the preceding three days. Britain's FTSE index fell 2.8%.

S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 21.63 on August 21 (WSJ)
S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 21.63 on August 21 (WSJ)

Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global financial panic and crisis. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations index) on Friday morning (August 21) was at an astronomically high 21.63. This is far above the historical average of 14, indicating that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.

Millions of people invested in China's stock markets when the bubble was being created. In fact, the Chinese government encouraged people to pour their life savings into the stock market, and many elderly people did so with their life savings. When the bubble was growing, no one could conceive that one day the bubble would implode, and that's what it's doing now.

Similarly, few people seem to believe that the Wall Street bubble could ever implode, but it's 100% certain that it will. The timing cannot be predicted, but it's possible that it's happening right now.

A lot of American investors are going to stay up late on Sunday evening (Monday morning in China) to see what happens to the Shanghai stock exchange on Monday. Whichever way Shanghai goes, it's possible that Wall Street will follow in the same direction. and Fox Business

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Aug-15 World View -- Macedonia declares state of emergency along border with Greece thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (22-Aug-2015) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Web Log Summary - 2016
Web Log Summary - 2015
Web Log Summary - 2014
Web Log Summary - 2013
Web Log Summary - 2012
Web Log Summary - 2011
Web Log Summary - 2010
Web Log Summary - 2009
Web Log Summary - 2008
Web Log Summary - 2007
Web Log Summary - 2006
Web Log Summary - 2005
Web Log Summary - 2004

Web Log - December, 2016
Web Log - November, 2016
Web Log - October, 2016
Web Log - September, 2016
Web Log - August, 2016
Web Log - July, 2016
Web Log - June, 2016
Web Log - May, 2016
Web Log - April, 2016
Web Log - March, 2016
Web Log - February, 2016
Web Log - January, 2016
Web Log - December, 2015
Web Log - November, 2015
Web Log - October, 2015
Web Log - September, 2015
Web Log - August, 2015
Web Log - July, 2015
Web Log - June, 2015
Web Log - May, 2015
Web Log - April, 2015
Web Log - March, 2015
Web Log - February, 2015
Web Log - January, 2015
Web Log - December, 2014
Web Log - November, 2014
Web Log - October, 2014
Web Log - September, 2014
Web Log - August, 2014
Web Log - July, 2014
Web Log - June, 2014
Web Log - May, 2014
Web Log - April, 2014
Web Log - March, 2014
Web Log - February, 2014
Web Log - January, 2014
Web Log - December, 2013
Web Log - November, 2013
Web Log - October, 2013
Web Log - September, 2013
Web Log - August, 2013
Web Log - July, 2013
Web Log - June, 2013
Web Log - May, 2013
Web Log - April, 2013
Web Log - March, 2013
Web Log - February, 2013
Web Log - January, 2013
Web Log - December, 2012
Web Log - November, 2012
Web Log - October, 2012
Web Log - September, 2012
Web Log - August, 2012
Web Log - July, 2012
Web Log - June, 2012
Web Log - May, 2012
Web Log - April, 2012
Web Log - March, 2012
Web Log - February, 2012
Web Log - January, 2012
Web Log - December, 2011
Web Log - November, 2011
Web Log - October, 2011
Web Log - September, 2011
Web Log - August, 2011
Web Log - July, 2011
Web Log - June, 2011
Web Log - May, 2011
Web Log - April, 2011
Web Log - March, 2011
Web Log - February, 2011
Web Log - January, 2011
Web Log - December, 2010
Web Log - November, 2010
Web Log - October, 2010
Web Log - September, 2010
Web Log - August, 2010
Web Log - July, 2010
Web Log - June, 2010
Web Log - May, 2010
Web Log - April, 2010
Web Log - March, 2010
Web Log - February, 2010
Web Log - January, 2010
Web Log - December, 2009
Web Log - November, 2009
Web Log - October, 2009
Web Log - September, 2009
Web Log - August, 2009
Web Log - July, 2009
Web Log - June, 2009
Web Log - May, 2009
Web Log - April, 2009
Web Log - March, 2009
Web Log - February, 2009
Web Log - January, 2009
Web Log - December, 2008
Web Log - November, 2008
Web Log - October, 2008
Web Log - September, 2008
Web Log - August, 2008
Web Log - July, 2008
Web Log - June, 2008
Web Log - May, 2008
Web Log - April, 2008
Web Log - March, 2008
Web Log - February, 2008
Web Log - January, 2008
Web Log - December, 2007
Web Log - November, 2007
Web Log - October, 2007
Web Log - September, 2007
Web Log - August, 2007
Web Log - July, 2007
Web Log - June, 2007
Web Log - May, 2007
Web Log - April, 2007
Web Log - March, 2007
Web Log - February, 2007
Web Log - January, 2007
Web Log - December, 2006
Web Log - November, 2006
Web Log - October, 2006
Web Log - September, 2006
Web Log - August, 2006
Web Log - July, 2006
Web Log - June, 2006
Web Log - May, 2006
Web Log - April, 2006
Web Log - March, 2006
Web Log - February, 2006
Web Log - January, 2006
Web Log - December, 2005
Web Log - November, 2005
Web Log - October, 2005
Web Log - September, 2005
Web Log - August, 2005
Web Log - July, 2005
Web Log - June, 2005
Web Log - May, 2005
Web Log - April, 2005
Web Log - March, 2005
Web Log - February, 2005
Web Log - January, 2005
Web Log - December, 2004
Web Log - November, 2004
Web Log - October, 2004
Web Log - September, 2004
Web Log - August, 2004
Web Log - July, 2004
Web Log - June, 2004

Copyright © 2002-2016 by John J. Xenakis.