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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Jun-2014
10-Jun-14 World View -- Iran closes border with Pakistan after terror attack in Balochistan

Web Log - June, 2014

10-Jun-14 World View -- Iran closes border with Pakistan after terror attack in Balochistan

Massive Taliban attack at airport in Karachi, Pakistan

This morning's key headlines from

Massive Taliban attack at airport in Karachi, Pakistan

Police display confiscated suicide vests and heavy weapons brought in by the terrorists.  In the foreground are the dead bodies of the terrorists in white sacks (AP)
Police display confiscated suicide vests and heavy weapons brought in by the terrorists. In the foreground are the dead bodies of the terrorists in white sacks (AP)

Taliban militants dressed as security forces stormed the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi, Pakistan, on Sunday night and Monday morning, and at least 30 people, including 10 heavily armed gunmen, were killed in a battle that ran for six hours. Security forces announced on Monday morning that the attack had come to an end, but gunfire and bomb blasts continued to be heard into Monday evening.

Jinnah International Airport is the largest and most prestigious airport in Pakistan. It's named after Mohammad Ali Jinnah, the founder of Pakistan. Jinnah is revered in Pakistan, for his work with Mahatma Gandhi to bring about Partition, the 1947 partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. When Gandhi was killed by a Hindu extremist in February, 1948, Jinnah called him "one of the greatest men produced by the Hindu community." Jinnah himself died later that year of tuberculosis.

Pakistanis are expressing outrage that the militants were able to bring into the airport a huge arsenal of suicide vests, grenades and rocket launchers, without being detected by any airport security. Express Tribune (Pakistan) and BBC and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India)

Tens of thousands of families flee homes in Pakistan's tribal area

Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP) has claimed credit for the attack. The spectacular Karachi airport attack comes at a time when the Taliban itself is having problems. (See "29-May-14 World View -- Major faction defects from Pakistan Taliban, splitting it in two") The TTP claimed that the airport attack was revenge for an American drone strike in November 2011 that killed Hakimullah Mehsud, at that leader of the TTP, whose death led to the split.

In recent months, Pakistan's Nawaz Sharif has been pursuing "peace talks" with TTP. This pursuit was always something of a joke (like the Mideast "peace talks") because the TTP demanded TTP prisoners must be released from jail, the army must be withdrawn from the tribal areas where it has been fighting the Taliban, and the government must agree to impose Sharia law on the entire country. It turned out that Sharif did secretly order the release of 19 Taliban militants from jail, in order to appease the TTP leadership, and those released militants are presumably out somewhere killing more civilians.

The airport attack is being seen as a message that there is no chance of "peace" between Pakistan's government and the Taliban. They got their people out of jail, and they really can't hope to get anything more, so now they're continuing with violence.

Although Karachi is far away from Pakistan's federally administered tribal area (FATA), the airport attack is having a major effect there. The airport attacks have triggered fears that Pakistan's army will launch a new campaign against militants in the FATA, and reports indicate that in North Waziristan, some 25,000 to 50,000 people, mostly women and children, fearing violence from an imminent army attack. and AFP and Bloomberg

Iran closes border with Pakistan after terror attack in Balochistan

In a separate incident, as many as 23 people were killed when a suicide bomber stormed a hotel where about 300 Shia pilgrims were staying. The incident took place in the town of Taftan in Balochistan, on Pakistan's border with Iran. The attack came when a convoy of 10 buses stopped at two hotels. The buses were carrying the pilgrims returning from a visit to Shia holy sites in Iran, stopping for a rest in Taftan. There were two suicide bombers, but only one of them was able to detonate himself. The terror group Jeish Al-Islam claimed responsibility.

Numerous Taliban groups have been attacking Shia Muslims in Balochistan for years, and Iran's government has been extremely critical of Pakistan for not stopping these attacks. Lashkar-e-Janghvi (LeJ) has publicly and firmly announced as its goal the extermination of all Shia Muslims in Pakistan, and has been methodically setting off bombs in order to achieve that goal. On January 21, LeJ blew up a bus of Shia pilgrims returning from Iran, killing 24.

Presumably, Sunday's incident was the last straw for Iranian officials. After this incident, Iran closed its border with Pakistan for an indefinite period, and all activities pertaining to travelling and trade have been suspended. Pakistan Tribune and Fars News (Tehran)

Iran's Supreme Leader complains young people are not revolutionary enough

One of the most fascinating comparisons to come out of Generational Dynamics theory is Iran today with America in the 1960s, at times when the countries were in respective generational Awakening eras, with the rise of young generations following the last crisis war. In 1960s America, the generations of traumatized survivors of the horrors of World War II were determined to prevent anything like that from happening again, so they adopted conservative social policies and fought to stop the communists in Vietnam. The generations that grew up after the war had no patience with these austere policies were widespread. The generational conflict climaxed with the resignation of President Nixon in 1974.

Iran's last generational crisis war was the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, followed by the Iran/Iraq war, which climaxed in 1988 with Saddam Hussein's use of chemical weapons. During the last decade, I've reported frequently on the political clashes between the elders, the war's traumatized survivors, and the young people who do not like restriction on clothing and dating, who love Western tastes and fashion, and who do not particularly want to sea Israel pushed into the sea. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, who is definitely a traumatized war survivor, constantly expresses concerns about the younger generation. In an address over the weekend, he said the following:

"Individuals who moved with sharp revolutionary motivation have now changed their views by 180 degrees, and the meaning of the Revolution is incomprehensible to them and we must be vigilant so these characteristics do not penetrate the University’s Jihad complex.

“The revolutionary path of University Jihad must be preserved. It must not be allowed for this important scientific center to be influenced by the political maze of 'leftists' and 'right-wingers.'

The production of destructive atomic bombs, is one hundred percent against humanity."

Just as America's generational split was settled with the resignation of Richard Nixon, Iran's generational split will finally be settled with the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, who is now 74 years old. AEI Iran Tracker

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Jun-14 World View -- Iran closes border with Pakistan after terror attack in Balochistan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (10-Jun-2014) Permanent Link
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