Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Sep-2013
15-Sep-13 World View -- Hindu nationalist nominated as India's prime minister

Web Log - September, 2013

15-Sep-13 World View -- Hindu nationalist nominated as India's prime minister

John Kerry thanks Russia for it's hard work in Syria

This morning's key headlines from

Syria discussion on Framingham Mass. TV on Sunday

Massachusetts residents who have access to Framingham TV should tune in on Sunday (9/15) evening at 6 pm, where I'll be the guest on the subject of Syria on Jim Pillsbury's news/talk show.

Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi becomes India prime minister candidate

Narendra Modi (AP)
Narendra Modi (AP)

A strong populist movement in India has resulted in the selection of Narendra Modi, a Hindu nationalist who in 2005 was banned from entry into the United States, as the candidate for prime minister for the nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). BJP will be running against the more liberal Congress Party, which has not yet named its lead candidate for next year's elections.

Hindu nationalism is controversial in India because opponents associate it with "Hindutva violence," where the Hindutva movement began in 1923, led by terrorist Veer Savarkar (Vinayak Damodar Savarkar), mostly as a movement against British colonization. (See "'Hindutva' terrorist violence against Muslims shocks Indians" from 2008.) In particular, a large terrorist bombing in Malegaon in India in 2008 was initially blamed on Muslim Jihadists, but evidence led to a Hindutva terrorist group that seeks revenge against Muslims.

Modi became associated with Hindutva violence in 2002, soon after the time he became, Governor of the Gujarat province (on the border with Pakistan), where he still serves as Governor. On February 27, 2002, a train with activists shouting Hindutva slogans passed through the city of Godhra in Gujarat province. There were some unsavory incidents, including an attempt to molest a Muslim girl and pull her into the train. Stone-throwing by Muslims led to a fire in one of the coaches, and deaths by burning of 58 people. This triggered several days of sectarian violence between Hindus and Muslims, killing hundreds and displacing more than 150,000 people, of which the majority were Muslims, who have since been living in refugee camps in dire humanitarian conditions.

As Governor, Narendra Modi was accused of complicity in the violence against Muslims -- for provoking it, and looking the other way when it occurred. An investigation eventually cleared him, but suspicions remained, and he was denied entry into the United States by President Bush's administration in 2005.

Modi has become extremely popular, either despite or because of his Hindutva connection. This popularity is part of a growing trend that began in the 1970s of increasing hostility between the Hindu and Muslim populations. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this mutual hostility is expected to increase, and the region is headed for a new war between Hindus and Muslims, refighting the genocidal war that followed Partition, the 1947 partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. Hindustan Times and AFP and Telegraph India

John Kerry thanks Russia for it's hard work in Syria

John Kerry and Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov gave a joint press conference at 6 am ET on Saturday morning. I assume that the 6 am time was chosen in the hope that no Americans would hear it, since it was so painfully embarrassing for the United States. I transcribed the first three minutes of it, which was the first part of John Kerry's statement:

"I'm particularly grateful to Sergei Lavrov who stayed extra time from what he had originally planned, hoping we'd finish sooner, and this gave us additional opportunity to be able to work through some of the issues.

I especially wanna thank the cooperative effort of Sergei Lavrov, who has worked hard and his entire delegation, including teams of the world's foremost chemical weapons experts, who have joined us here for the important discussions that we've had over the last two days.

Two weeks ago made the decision that because of the egregious use of chemical weapons in Syria against innocent Syrian citizens, women and children, all indiscriminately murdered in the night that claimed the lives even of people trying to rescue people, he believed it was critical for the world to say "No more."

The president made the difficult decision that after multiple warnings, it was his decision that the time had come to take military action to deter future use of such weapons.

But he also made the decision that we needed to take time to enlist the support of the congress and the American people, and I have no doubt that the combination of the threat of force, and the willingness to pursue diplomacy helped to bring us to this moment.

But diplomacy requires willing partners, and I wanna thank President Putin for his willingness to pick up on the possibility of negotiating an ended to Syrian weapons of mass destruction. His willingness to embrace ideas for how to accomplish this goal, and his willingness to send foreign minister Lavrov here to pursue 12:03 this effort was essential to getting to this point.

And I wanna thank Sergei Lavrov for his diligent efforts and the efforts of his entire delegation who worked hard and in good faith to overcome difficulties and even disagreements. In order to try to find a way through tireless efforts to get us where we are today."

It's good to see that Sergei Lavrov was effusively thanked several times for his magnificent effort of staying an extra day to fully make fools of the U.S. administration once again. I wouldn't want Lavrov to think that his magnificent efforts were not appreciated by John Kerry. John Kerry also expressed thanks to Vladimir Putin for sending the magnificent Lavrov to meet with Kerry. I was disappointed, though, that Kerry never took a moment to thank Syria's president Bashar al-Assad for his magnificent efforts as well.

As for the terms of the agreement, as I understand them, they are as follows:

The Obama administration is taking credit for this agreement, saying that the threats of military intervention, as well as all the flip-flops and gaffes, were actually done on purpose, just to bring this agreement about. (Do I need to comment on this claim?)

We can expect to see the following scenario one or more times in the weeks to come: Syria breaches the agreement. John Kerry complains to the U.N. Security Council. Lavrov says it's just a technical detail, and anyway there's no evidence. Kerry offers a resolution. Russia vetoes it.

Reports indicate that now that the threat of American force has ended, Syria's air force is doubling its attacks with conventional weapons.

Russia's 2011 strategy of using the United Nations to cripple the Obama administration and American policy is continuing to succeed spectacularly.

At some point, Kerry and Obama are going to be forced to react to Putin and al-Assad repeatedly leading them by the nose and making fools of them, and the result may not be pleasant for anyone.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Sep-13 World View -- Hindu nationalist nominated as India's prime minister thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (15-Sep-2013) Permanent Link
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