Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Jun-07
Abbas dissolves the Palestinian Authority as Hamas overpowers Fatah in Gaza

Web Log - June, 2007

Abbas dissolves the Palestinian Authority as Hamas overpowers Fatah in Gaza

There are now effectively two Palestinian Authorities, one in Gaza governed by Hamas, and one in the West Bank governed by Fatah.

Some of the West's worst fears appear to be coming true, as the terrorist group Hamas appears ready to establish a Sunni Sharia state in Gaza, with links to al-Qaeda through the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

The jubilant Hamas warriors completely outfought the Fatah security forces, and handed Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas a humiliating defeat.

Egypt is said to be trying to mediate a new compromise of some sort, but that seems unlikely to change things.

I've done many generational analyses of the Mideast, starting in 2003, when I wrote that the death of Yasser Arafat would be part of a significant generational change that would lead the Mideast into a major new war between Arabs and Jews, replaying the genocidal war of the late 1940s.

Last year, in an article called "Interviews with young Gazans spotlight road to war," and in 2005, in "Palestinian 'Old Guard' giving way to 'Young Guard'" I showed how you can break down the Palestinian generations: The "Old Guard," consisting of Palestinian leaders, including Arafat and Abbas, who founded the Palestinian Authority after the 1940s war; the "Hamas generation," born after the 1940s war with no memory of its horrors, and contemptuous of the Old Guard for allowing Israel to get away with so much; and the "Young Guard," the young militants now in complete charge of Gaza, who are rapidly taking matters into their own hands.

If I could be philosophical for a moment, I know that many readers of this web site feel everything from skepticism to amazement.

At the time that I wrote the 2003 article referenced above, I was still pretty skeptical myself. That was my first real predictive article, and I was pretty unsure of what I was doing, but I wanted to get it posted so that if it turned out to be right I would be able to point to a track record of predictions.

Today, my skepticism is long past, but my amazement still remains. I had hoped to have some success in determining general trends, but it still astonishes me that each and every Generational Dynamics trend prediction has either come true or is coming true. Not a single one has been wrong. Six years ago I would have believed that any such result was absolutely impossible, and the fact it's working still amazes me probably more than any reader of this web site.

The other thing that amazes me is that the politicians and journalists are so ignorant of all this. When I first posted that prediction in 2003, no one was talking like that at all, and there were a number of people who actually called me crazy.

Today, the same ignorance prevails. I watched BBC World earlier this evening, and I'm watching CNN International right now, and these people still have NO IDEA what's going to happen. They STILL think that things in Gaza will settle down or, at worst, there'll be a small civil war that'll soon blow over, and then the so-called "peace process" can begin again.

When I say that readers of this web site are the only people who know what's going on in the world, you may think I'm just bragging a little, and maybe I am. But it's also true. People just REFUSE to believe what's coming. This is the ONLY web site in the world that correctly predicts and explains everything going on in the world.

There's another oddity going on. I know from my web log that there are probably a few thousand regular readers of this web site, yet this web site is almost never mentioned in other blogs and web sites. I know of people who read this web site who simply don't want to talk about it. Period.

I'm beginning to think of this web site as being similar to a pornographic web site -- there are a lot of people reading it, but they don't want to admit it.

There's another lesson to be learned from the situation in Gaza. The Generational Dynamics prediction is, and always was, that the Arabs and Jews will be have a new genocidal crisis war, replaying the genocidal war of the late 1940s. Generational Dynamics gives you the final destination, but doesn't tell you that path or scenario that you'll take to get there.

So now we're seeing the scenario unfolding before our eyes. Who would have thought that the Palestinians would have an internal war, splitting themselves into two groups, led by Hamas and Fatah, respectively, one in Gaza, one in the West Bank? Of course we still don't know the next steps -- how this will turn into a war between Palestinian and Jews -- but we're obviously building up to that point.

Can anything be done to stop this? No. It is a basic, core principle of generational theory, as originally developed in the 1980s and early 1990s by William Strauss and Neil Howe, that no politician can have any predictable effect on what's going to happen.

That's why, for example, arguing about the Iraq war is futile. Future historians may look back at this time and decide that the Iraq war turned out to hurt us, or they may look back and decide that the Iraq war helped us in the Clash of Civilizations world war, but there's no way to know today.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006
W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3
Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2
China 2 North Korea 2
Financial 3 Bird flu 3
Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

I hope that all of you who read this web site are at least preparing for what's coming. Every day, the global financial economy is gets more and more out of control, relations between China and Taiwan get more and more critical and, of course, the situation in the Palestinian territories becomes more and more chaotic and violent.

No one can stop what's coming, but you can prepare for it. As I've said many times: Treasure the time you have left, and use the time to prepare yourself, your family, your community and your nation. (15-Jun-07) Permanent Link
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