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 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-May-07
Gaza close to state of emergency as Israel tries to avoid getting pulled in

Web Log - May, 2007

Gaza close to state of emergency as Israel tries to avoid getting pulled in

The streets of Gaza are clear except for gunmen today, as gun violence has been increasing throughout the Gaza strip.

The "unity government" between Fatah (Mahmoud Abbas) and Hamas is close to collapse, according to reports on CNN International.

Monday's resignation of Interior Minister Hani Kawasmeh has shattered, for the time being, any chance of peace between Fatah's and Hamas's security forces. Kawasmeh had been chosen as a compromise by Fatah and Hamas because he was trusted by both sides; his resignation sent the respective security forces out of control, resulting in increasing gun violence between the two security forces.

There are thousands of armed men in each of the two "security forces" involved in the street battles in Gaza, and hundreds more in militias not affiliated with either Fatah or Hamas.

As of noon ET, CNN International reports that a large group of journalists are trapped inside a 15-story building in Ramattan, with violence all around. CNN is showing live pictures from the building of journalists crouched down to avoid bullets occasionally coming through windows.

Alan Johnston, the BBC Gaza reporter who was kidnapped several weeks ago, still hasn't been heard from in a long time, and concern for his fate is high.

The growing civil war between Fatah and Hamas is a blow to the plans of the Hamas military wing to have a war with Israel. The situation with Palestinians shooting at each other has not only destroyed almost all remaining international sympathy for the Palestinians, but is also frustrating to Hamas terrorists who want the war to be focused on Israel.

The result is that Hamas has been shooting dozens of missiles over Ariel Sharon's "security wall" into Israeli terrority, resulting in serious injury for one woman. The likely objective is to cause an overreaction by the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) that would, once again, unify the Palestinians against Israel, rather than against each other.

However, the enormous humiliation suffered by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz in their panicked pursuit of the summer, 2006, war with Hizbollah in Lebanon, with no plan and no objective, as documented in the Winograd Committee report, has had an ironic effect.

Israel's government is now much more careful, and new procedures have been put in place to prevent any rash actions.

What you're beginning to see in Israel is the first signs of the "regeneracy." In generational theory, the regeneracy occurs in a Crisis era. It's the point where the unity and identity of the nation finally "regenerates." The people put aside their internal political disagreements and unify to utilize any means necessary to defeat the enemy. Once the regeneracy is reached, the war becomes a full-scale genocidal crisis war. The fighting will continue to escalate until an explosive climax occurs, and a resolution is reached.

However, that point in Israel is still far away, although we're seeing the first signs. The Israeli government is approaching the Gaza situation much more carefully.

The real question is: What's happening in Gaza?

I've been watching the situation in Gaza (and the West Bank) very carefully since the death of Yasser Arafat. In particular, I've been watching for the hostility of the Palestinians to rise to the point where they're willing to rise up and smash through the "security wall" and engage the Israelis in total war. I was especially watching for it during last summer's Lebanon war.

And I haven't seen it, and still don't see it. Despite warnings of a new "summer 2007 war" with Israel, I haven't seen the genocidal fury among the Palestinians towards Israel among the people in general. Everything I've read is just enormous sadness among the Palestinians that they can't get their own act together enough to deserve a Palestinian state.

But now I'm really beginning to see signs of "genocidal fury" among Gazans toward each other. If/when these gunfights really spiral out of control, then outsiders will be forced to intervene. This will be particularly true if the violence appears to be spreading to the West Bank. These outsiders will probably first be the Israelis, and later the Egyptians.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, as I first said in 2003, the Jews and the Arabs are headed for a new genocidal war, replaying the genocidal war of the late 1940s, when Palestine was partitioned and the state of Israel was created. This new war will pull in countries in the entire region, including Europe and the United States eventually.

Although Israel's government is proceeding cautiously, keep in mind the following very important point: Generational Dynamics explains and predicts the behaviors and actions of large groups of people, entire generations of people, not the actions of a small group of politicians. The actions of politicians are important insofar as they reflect the attitudes of the people that the politicians represent.

And we're seeing the Israeli people getting very impatient with the current situation in Gaza, especially as hundreds of rockets pour over the security wall into Israel. The people don't trust Olmert and Peretz, after the failure of the Lebanon war. They're increasingly demanding that "decisive" action be taken by the IDF to destroy the Hamas militias in Gaza. That, or course, would be a major operation, and would bring Israel fully into the war, which is what Hamas wants.

So Olmert is trying to remain cautious, but if the situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate, then the IDF will be forced to undertake a major military action in Gaza, and a war between Jews and Arabs will begin again in earnest. (16-May-07) Permanent Link
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