Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-May-07
Palestinian Interior Minister resigns as escalated Gaza violence threatens civil war

Web Log - May, 2007

Palestinian Interior Minister resigns as escalated Gaza violence threatens civil war

Six people were killed and dozens wounded over the weekend in violence between Hamas and Fatah militias in Gaza.

Frustrated Palestinian Authority Interior Minister Hani Kawasmeh announces his resignation. <font size=-2>(Source:</font>
Frustrated Palestinian Authority Interior Minister Hani Kawasmeh announces his resignation. (Source:

It was just two months ago when Gazans were jubilantly dancing in the streets because a peace agreement had been signed in Mecca, laying the groundwork for a unity government. With Hamas and Fatah unified, then the Palestinians' growing civil war would end, it was hoped.

The ceasefire had been shaky at best, but now the entire Palestinian government is in danger, with the resignation of Interior Minister Hani Kawassmeh from the Palestinian Authority unity government. His job was to supervise the security forces in Gaza, but in Monday's press conference, he expressed enormous frustration over the lack of cooperation from both sides.

Do you know, dear reader, what we're celebrating this month? It's the fourth anniversary of the Mideast Roadmap to Peace, released by the US and EU. By this time, there should have been a Palestinian state existing side by side with Israel, in peace, love and harmony.

I said at the time that it would never succeed, because it can't succeed. Forget all this crap about the unity government. The important point about Gaza, which no one ever seems to mention except me, is that the Gaza strip is densely populated and the median age in the Gaza strip is 15.8. Thus, the Gaza strip is run by a generation of children with guns and missiles.

So, it doesn't matter what the old men in the "unity government" do or don't do. Those people are just ancient dinosaurs to the kids in Gaza. The fate of the Mideast is in the hands of a generation of children with guns and missiles, children who couldn't care less about the nuances of international diplomacy. At some point they'll decide that there'll be war, and then there'll be war.

It's amazing to me that nobody else seems to understand this. I've often said here that politicians, pundits, high-priced analysts and journalists can't recognize any generational concept, no matter how obvious. It's just too abstract for them to understand.

As I've described in the past, random political events in the Mideast are "attracted" (in the sense of a chaotic attractor in Chaos Theory) in the direction of war, and for the last several years I've been describing on this web site the many political events moving the Mideast closer and closer to war.

As I've explained many times on this web site, day to day political events are chaotic events that fall like snowflakes in random ways. But just as millions of snowflakes get "attracted" to large snow drifts, millions of individual political events get attracted to the impending Mideast war, since war is a "chaotic attractor" at this time, 58 years after the end of the 1940s genocidal war between Arabs and Jews.

It's true that there have been occasional brief intervals of jubilation, when it looked there might be peace. But those brief intervals are like a heat wave in New York City in November -- just because the weather gets warm for a few days doesn't mean that winter isn't coming. Once the heat wave is over, the weather starts getting much colder again. Similarly, there are brief periods when things seem to get better, but they pass quickly, and then political events move back towards war.

You know, it's interesting that the Gaza situation is rarely in the news any more. When the Israelis occupied Gaza, it was an important news story every day. But now, it's hardly ever covered even on the BBC. Today was the first day in quite a while. There's been a BBC story every day about Alan Johnston, the BBC Gaza correspondent who was kidnapped several weeks ago, but rarely about the Palestinian government any more.

I think that most of the world has simply given up on Gaza. No one believes that the Roadmap to Peace is even relevant any more. In fact, as I wrote about in February, interviews with Palestinians show that even they have given up on Gaza. Interviews with young Gazans show that they see no hope for the future.

Nobody seems to care any more what happens in Gaza. But the situation continues to degrade as the generational changes continue to occur. No one knows what will trigger a conflagration, but something will.

I can't resist mentioning one story that came online on Monday on the Time Magazine site, but you'd better check it out fast before they change it. The headline on the story reads "Gaza on the Verge of Civil War," and it's a pretty decent story by Andrew Lee Butters, Time's Jerusalem correspondent.

But accompanying the story is a picture of American soldier Sgt. Tierney Nowland pointing a gun at someone. The caption reads: "A U.S. soldier patrols the Ghazaliya neighborhood of Baghdad, March 2007." Apparently some editor thinks that Gaza is in Iraq. See what I mean about most journalists being incredibly stupid, not to mention incredibly sloppy? I mean, this is an editor at a leading news magazine. How incredibly stupid do you have to be, working for a major news magazine, and think that the Gaza Strip is in Iraq. Geez.

Well, getting back to the subject, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the prediction hasn't changed since I first stated it in 2003: The Jews and the Arabs are headed for a new genocidal war, replaying the genocidal war of the late 1940s, when Palestine was partitioned and the state of Israel was created. This new war will pull in the entire region, including the United States. As usual, Generational Dynamics tells you what your final destination is, but not how you get there; but it looks more and more that a likely scenario is that the war will begin with a civil war among the Palestinians. (15-May-07) Permanent Link
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