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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Jun-05
Acrimonious European Union summit ends in crisis

Web Log - June, 2005

Acrimonious European Union summit ends in crisis

Chirac and Blair exchanged bitter recriminations, with most of Europe blaming Blair for refusing to give up the $5 billion annual "rebate" that Margaret Thatcher negotiated in 1984.

At the end of a marathon session of the EU summit that lasted late into Friday evening, Blair refused to consider reducing the rebate unless France agreed to reduce the PAC (agricultural subsidies) that provides substantial subsidies to French farmers.

Defiant French President Jacques Chirac (Source: LeMonde)

Defiant French President Jacques Chirac (Source: LeMonde)

Chirac really poured on the heat. He refused to link the rebate reduction in any way with any other part of the budget, let alone reduce the PAC amount, which provides $9 billion in farm subsidies to France.

The current EU President, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, led the failing effort at reaching a compromise.

Furious EU President, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker (Source: BBC)

Furious EU President, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker (Source: BBC)

At a post-midnight press conference, a furious Jean-Claude Juncker clearly condemned Blair and the UK, saying he felt ashamed that "certain people did not have the will to reach agreement when some poorer other countries were willing to do so."

Grim-faced British Prime Minister Tony Blair (Source: BBC)

Grim-faced British Prime Minister Tony Blair (Source: BBC)

At a competing press conference, a grim-faced Blair accused Chirac of intentionally trying to isolate him, and pointed out that England was not isolated, since four other countries, Holland, Sweden, Finland and Spain, with Denmark and Italy abstaining, had joined the UK in rejecting the compromise budget.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is exactly the kind of political result that should be expected. Europe is headed for a major new war, as part of the "clash of civilizations" world war, and it's increasingly clear that France and Britain will be the two major belligerents. This prediction is based on generational changes that have already taken place and are continuing to take place.

As we pointed out in our analysis of the French rejection of the EU Constitution, the exit polls indicate that the people who were alive during World War II favor the Constitution because they believe that it's the best way to prevent a new European war, while those born after WW II are opposed to the Constitution because they believe it will cost them jobs. As time goes on, the generational balance will tilt further and further toward people who reject the European Union.

The summit may have ended, but the acrimonious battle is far from over.

It is incredibly ironic that on July 1, Tony Blair will follow a pre-established rotating schedule and take over from Jean-Claude Juncker as the new EU President. Asked about this at the press conference, Juncker said, "I have no comment on that. And I won't give Mr. Blair any advice, since he doesn't seem to want my advice."

Thus, Blair will serve for six months as President of a European Union that will refuse to cooperate with him until he relents on the rebate issue. However, that would infuriate his own constituency back home, and so Blair is unlikely to back down.

As of today, the EU Constitution is dead, thanks to the French and Dutch referenda; the EU budget is dead after 2006, thanks to yesterday's fiasco; and the EU's euro currency is close to death, thanks to the differing needs of the 25 member countries.

Around 2015 or so, after the war is over, the survivors will try to form a new European Union, and they'll probably succeed at that time. (18-Jun-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Jun-05 Acrimonious European Union summit ends in crisis

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Jun-05
Acrimonious European Union summit ends in crisis