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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Dec-2018
22-Dec-18 World View -- China's CPEC project in Pakistan turns military, marginalizing Balochistan

Web Log - December, 2018

22-Dec-18 World View -- China's CPEC project in Pakistan turns military, marginalizing Balochistan

NY Times: CPEC in Pakistan will build military jets and weaponry for China

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

China's CPEC project marginalizes Pakistan's restive Balochistan province
NY Times: CPEC in Pakistan will build military jets and weaponry for China

China's CPEC project marginalizes Pakistan's restive Balochistan province

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Balochistan province in the southwest occupies 44% of the land area, but is being marginalized by CPEC. (Independent.in)

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Balochistan province in the southwest occupies 44% of the land area, but is being marginalized by CPEC. (Independent.in)

Ever since the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was launched on May 22, 2013, both the Chinese and Pakistan government promised that the project would bring wealth to Balochistan province, home of Pakistan's marginalized ethnic Baloch people.

Balochistan officials have been complaining for years that Balochistan is being shortchanged, and claim that both Pakistan and China denied. However, it couldn't be verified, because the details of the CPEC deal between Pakistan and China are top secret, just like all the deals in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) program. Many of these deals are assumed to be "debt traps" for the countries involved, ensnaring a country in debt to China that can't be paid back, giving China leverage to take control of land and other assets in the client country.

However, the Balochistan Cabinet were stunned on December 10 when some of the secrecy was pulled back in a briefing, revealing the following:

Of the $62 billion CPEC project, only a minuscule $5.6 billion is allocated to Balochistan, even though Balochistan is by far the largest province in Pakistan, comprising 44% of Pakistan's total land mass.

Of the allocated $5.6 billion, less than $1 billion has been spent in over five years since CPEC was launched, in only two projects.

There was no progress on the Western Route of the corridor as none of the roads that are part of the so-called “western alignment” have seen any work. This is the part of CPEC that would be most heavily in Balochistan. Instead, all projects have been diverted to the eastern route, benefiting Punjab and Sindh provinces.

One of the two projects that have begun is the Hubco Coal Power Plant. However, even this project isn't benefiting Balochistan, since the generated power is going to other provinces.

The other project is the Gwadar Port Project, on the Indian Ocean. This is the crown jewel of CPEC, since the purpose of CPEC is to allow China, to transfer commercial and military goods and equipment overland from China's Xinjian province to Gwadar port and return. This project does not benefit Balochistan either, and in fact has caused a severe drinking-water shortage that was supposed to be fixed with desalination plants, but the desalinization plant projects haven't materialized.

Of the revenues to be generated by the Gwadar Port, 91% will go to China, and 9% will go to Pakistan.

Since neither of these two projects benefits Balochistan, the percentage of $62 billion for the CPEC project that benefits Balochistan is less than 1%.

Pakistan government officials claim that the lack of funding to Balochistan are "concocted stories" to damage the China-Pakistan relationship, and that they are "fully committed" to more investment in Balochistan.

The explosive report showed that the most extreme claims of Baloch activists have turned out to be true. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), a separatist terror group, have opposed the project since its inception, claiming that Balochistan was being "colonized" by Punjabi and Chinese workers. ( "6-Nov-18 World View -- Pakistan's Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claims credit for killing CPEC workers")

Insurgents trying to disrupt construction of CPEC projects in Balochistan have killed 66 persons since 2014. The BLA have been conducting a series of terror attacks on Chinese and Punjabi workers, and are promising to continue. Dawn and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and Asia Times

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NY Times: CPEC in Pakistan will build military jets and weaponry for China

China has demanded that all the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) deals be kept top secret, and a recent report has revealed one of the reasons why. BRI is supposed to be building roads and bridges and ports.

But according to documents uncovered by the NY Times, China and Pakistan plan to create a special economic zone under CPEC in Pakistan to produce a new generation of fighter jets, navigation systems, radar systems, and onboard weapons. This would expand China and Pakistan’s current cooperation on the JF-17 fighter jet, which is assembled at Pakistan’s military-run Kamra Aeronautical Complex in Punjab province.

China has already signed an agreement with Pakistan to build a network of satellite stations to establish the Beidou Navigation System as an alternative to the American GPS network. This will be major technology that China provides to numerous countries in Asia, Africa and Europe, and strengthens the military space capabilities of the Chinese military.

Revelation of the military deal also resolves a mystery. As we've reported numerous times, Pakistan is on the brink of bankruptcy, and Pakistan’s first debt repayments to China are set for next year, starting at about $300 million and gradually increasing to reach about $3.2 billion by 2026. Pakistan has been begging for money from China, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, and all have refused. Finally, Pakistan asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for another loan, but one of the conditions of an IMF loan is that every detail of the relationship between Pakistan and China would have to be revealed.

Apparently China has had a change of heart. The Chinese Embassy in Islamabad demanded that CPEC deals be kept secret and promised to loan more money to Pakistan.

Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "allies" of America, India, Russia, Iran and the West will be at war with the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries. China is Pakistan's "all-weather friend," whose friendship is "higher than mountains, deeper than oceans, stronger than steel, sweeter than honey, and dearer than eyesight." This military relationship brings the two countries ever closer together. NY Times and The News (Pakistan) and India Times

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Dec-18 World View -- China's CPEC project in Pakistan turns military, marginalizing Balochistan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (22-Dec-2018) Permanent Link
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NY Times: CPEC in Pakistan will build military jets and weaponry for China

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22-Dec-18 World View -- China's CPEC project in Pakistan turns military, marginalizing Balochistan