Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Jul-2018
21-Jul-18 World View -- The Trump-Putin private meeting was almost certainly about China

Web Log - July, 2018

21-Jul-18 World View -- The Trump-Putin private meeting was almost certainly about China

Donald Trump threatens to impose tariffs on everything imported from China

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from

Donald Trump threatens to impose tariffs on everything imported from China

Donald Trump
Donald Trump

In an interview broadcast on Friday, president Donald Trump sharply escalated the rhetoric in the trade war with China, and threatened to impose tariffs on everything imported from China. China responded to the threat with a vitriolic statement calling Trump a "wrecking ball." As I wrote a couple of days ago, the trade war with China will escalate. ( "19-Jul-18 World View -- Trump administration signals that trade war with China will escalate sharply")

On Friday, Trump said that in order to match some of the tariffs that China imposes on US products, he's already announced tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese products. He said in the interview (my transcription):

"I raised 50, and they matched us. I said, you don't match us, you can't match us, because otherwise we're always going to be behind the eight ball....

I'm ready to go to 500."

Tariffs on $500 billion would include all products imported from China.

Trump described how this situation began in the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations:

"Look I'm not doing this for politics. I'm doing this to do the right thing for our country. We've been ripped off by China for a long time. And I told that to president Xi. I said how did this ever happen?

And you know what happened? And you know what their answer is? because I deal with the highest echelons of china. One of the great people of China said, "There was never anybody that talked to us in the United States. We would put on a trade barrier, where you couldn't sell cars, or you couldn't sell beef, or you couldn't sell your farm products, nobody would talk to us in the United States.

"So we said that's great. Then we put on another one. We'd put on a tariff on cars, 25%, and you charge us virtually nothing 2 1/2 per cent, but they don't pay it. So we would do this, and nobody would talk. We'd start off at a lower number, we'd raise it, we'd raise it, nobody would every complain, until you came along." Me. And they said, "Now you're doing more than complaining, we don't like what you're doing." They think maybe we're doing too much."

It's widely believed that we're on the verge of a full-blown trade war with China, which was already clear from my article two days ago. CNBC and New York Magazine and Guardian (London)

China's Foreign Ministry gives a vitriolic response to Trump

China's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hua Chunying gave her regular press conference on Friday, and said the following in response to a question about trade:

"Third, everyone is watching when the US side behaves like this in international relations, and everyone is hearing and seeing what the US officials are saying and doing. So, we all know what the whole world thinks of the US. It is quite obvious that some people in the US are so obsessed with their conjured-up reality that they simply cannot be waken up. However, by brandishing its wanton and striking indiscriminately while depriving others' right to self-defense, by blocking its own door while demanding others to unconditionally open theirs wider, by overriding others' interests and the international rules to serve its own political needs and selfish interests, the US has really taught us something in a piercing and profound way. I have noted that many US citizens and its allies have spoken out unreservedly. The US is now the biggest wrecking ball to world stability and certainty. Its unilateralism and protectionism pose the greatest threat to the international rules and the world economic order.

I said the other day that knowing someone is intelligence but knowing oneself is real wisdom. Today I want to add that nothing could be more disastrous than chaos. As the No.1 power in today's world, the US should at least think about its responsibility before making relevant policies or saying or doing anything, because it is the "order" of the world that they are expected to promote, not "chaos"."

Hua's most significant statement was: "However, by brandishing its wanton and striking indiscriminately while depriving others' right to self-defense, by blocking its own door while demanding others to unconditionally open theirs wider, by overriding others' interests and the international rules to serve its own political needs and selfish interests, the US has really taught us something in a piercing and profound way."

I believe that the reference to "depriving others' right to self-defense" refers to America's freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, where China's activities were declared illegal in 2016 by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, which ruled that all of China's activities in the South China Sea are illegal and in violation of international law. With regard to promoting "chaos," the Chinese must be aware that they've infuriated all their neighbors by their illegal activities.

China's appeal to "international law" is laughable, because China only cares about international law when it favors them. When it doesn't favor them, as in the case of the South China Sea, they claim that they're superior to everyone else, and their law supersedes international law. The same is true in trade. China has repeatedly violated and ignored World Trade Organization rules, but they complain about international law to gain an advantage.

In an interview Friday, Trump's chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow suggested that China will retaliate against individual American companies doing business in China:

"My guess is that if the plot thickens with no progress, they will start going after American companies [operating] in China....

The problem here is Xi. He doesn’t want to move, and they’ve offered the U.S. absolutely ... no options regarding the issue of [intellectual property] theft and forced technology transfer."

China could target individual American companies through new regulations.

Trump is not going to back down. And, based on the vitriolic intensity of Hua Chunying's statement, China is not going to back down either.

As I wrote in my recent article, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the US and China are in a generational Crisis era, in a tit for tat escalation sequence that leads to a full-blown generational crisis war. It's clear from remarks by Trump, Hua and Kudlow that that's exactly where we're headed. Foreign Ministry of China and Axios

The Trump-Putin private meeting was almost certainly about China

Donald Trump and Russia's president Vladimir Putin had a private one on one meeting during their July 16 summit meeting in Helsinki. As usual, the mainstream media, who have absolutely no clue what's going on in the world, have been screaming hysterically, some suggesting that Trump should be tried and convicted of treason, and then executed. Others demanded that the American interpreter who sat in on the meeting should be subpoenaed and forced to testify, something that would trigger enormous international diplomatic issues.

Trump tweeted on Thursday that he would like to schedule a second meeting with Putin in the fall, this time in Washington. This drew further hysterical screaming, along with demands that no such meeting be permitted unless Trump fully describes what happened in the first meeting.

In his CNBC interview on Friday, Trump gave a brief description of his summit meeting with Putin:

"We had a tremendous discussion on many things -- terrorism, Syria, the Middle East overall, Iran, we talked about as an example nuclear proliferation -- to me there's nothing more important than that.

We had a tremendous meeting. I think it was a very good press conference, except for the fake news I think I did very well at the press conference."

As I wrote in my previous article, Trump is very well aware that we're headed for a world war against China. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this war cannot be prevented. Trump is taking whatever steps he can to prevent this war, and I'm not going to criticize Trump for taking steps to prevent a world war, even if the war cannot be prevented.

Vladimir Putin is also well aware that Russia is headed for a war with China. The Russian and Chinese people have hated each other for centuries, especially since Russia, after conquest by Genghis Khan, became a vassal state of the China and the Mongol Empire for centuries. ( "31-Mar-18 World View -- Russia's Far East, Siberia and Vladivostok under threat from China")

So today, both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are aware that their countries are going to be allies in world war launched by China.

When they had their private summit meeting on July 16, it's inconceivable that they didn't discuss this oncoming war, and how they would defend themselves and help defend each other.

That also explains why there's so much secrecy about the meeting. Any mention that Trump and Putin discussed plans for a world war launched by China would cause a massive international uproar. So the subject of the private meeting must be kept secret. But with so much at stake for the United States, Russia, and the rest of the world, it's inconceivable that they didn't discuss this subject when they had the chance. And it will be all to the good for them to have another meeting in the fall, for further discussions on this subject. The Hill

Related Articles:

North Korea denuclearization talks appear to be falling apart

As I've been writing for many months, there is absolutely no possibility whatsoever that North Korea is going to denuclearize, either now or in the future.

On Friday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley criticized both China and Russia for helping North Korea violate United Nations sanctions as the regime smuggles in more oil than is allowed.

According to Pompeo, "When sanctions are not enforced, the prospects for the successful denuclearization of North Korea are diminished."

It's been nearly six weeks after President Trump's summit with Kim Jong-un, and there are no signs whatsoever, that the North Koreans have any intention of denuclearizing. ABC News

Related Articles:

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Jul-18 World View -- The Trump-Putin private meeting was almost certainly about China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (21-Jul-2018) Permanent Link
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