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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Apr-2017
22-Apr-17 World View -- Kashmiri students at two Indian colleges harassed and beaten

Web Log - April, 2017

22-Apr-17 World View -- Kashmiri students at two Indian colleges harassed and beaten

Indians seek solutions and blame intervention from Pakistan and China

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from

Kashmiri students at two Indian colleges harassed and beaten

Kashmiri students at Rajasthan University (Kashmir Monitor)
Kashmiri students at Rajasthan University (Kashmir Monitor)

It seems that hardly a day goes by without the situation in Indian-governed Kashmir becoming worse than the day before.

Students studying in colleges in India far from Kashmir are being harassed and beaten by perpetrators described a "nationalist Hindus."

At Rajasthan University, six Muslim Kashmiri students were called "terrorists" and assaulted by locals. According to one:

"Six of us were assaulted in three separate attacks that took place at the same time in the market. The attacks seemed coordinated. They hurled abuses, called us terrorists and said we throw stones at the army. They told us to go back to Kashmir and threatened that they won’t let us study here."

The words "said we throw stones at the army" refers to the worsening situation in Kashmir, where separatists are throwing stones at police and army personnel, and security forces are shooting Kashmiris with pellet guns, sometimes blinding them.

At another college, Rawal Institute of Technology, female Kashmiri students are being harassed and threatened. According to one student, "The boys used abusive language today and followed Kashmiri girls which led to clashes between Kashmir boys and offenders."

I've written enough of these stories about Kashmir to know how emotional the responses to this article will be. Some people will put the blame entirely on the Muslims, or at least on the Kashmiri separatists, and other people will put the blame entirely on the Hindus, or at least on the government security forces.

But I'm just reporting an ongoing situation that gets worse almost every day, and is almost certainly going to lead to war.

India's Home Affairs Minister Rajnath Singh issued a directive saying that the Kashmiris were part of India's "family," and that:

"The Kashmiri youth also contribute in the progress of India. Action should be taken by the states against those who target them."

Many Indians blame the "Islamization" of Kashmir by Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan's Foreign Office spokesman Nafees Zakaria said:

"Indian occupation forces have launched an all-out war on Kashmiri students. They have attacked women’s education institutions as well. A dozen colleges have been attacked, injuring thousands of students – both boys and girls."

Whatever the truth is, it's clear that the situation in Kashmir has worsened significantly in the last year, and even worsened significantly in the last couple of weeks. Kashmir Monitor and Kashmir Observer and Express Tribune (Pakistan)

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Indians seek solutions and blame intervention from Pakistan and China

As I've written many times, the situation in Kashmir is on a trend line that's spiraling into full-scale war. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Kashmir is replaying previous generations of violence according to a fairly standard template.

India's previous two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British colonists, and the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims, following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. Now, as the survivors of the 1947 Partition War have almost all died off, leaving behind younger generations with no fear of repeating past disasters, Kashmir is showing signs of repeating the violence of 1857 and 1947.

Indians accuse Pakistan of encouraging the Kashmir violence, and even supporting it with money and weapons. There's little doubt that the accusations are true. After all, Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) organization has funded terrorist groups that have attacked targets in both India and Aghanistan.

And now an opinion writer is blaming China:

"While the Chinese claim to have been miffed over the Dalai Lama’s visit to Tawang and Arunachal Pradesh, and have now given Chinese names to places in that state to buttress their territorial claims, the reality is that the dragon is keen to have the status quo changed in Jammu & Kashmir too. Reason: large parts of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir are critical to its new China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), including land access to Gwadar port in Balochistan.

Without the covert Chinese go-ahead to Pakistani aims in J&K, it is doubtful if an economically and politically isolated country would have dared change the game in Kashmir Valley. Here’s what’s new in this round of bloodletting in the Valley. ...

China may not be overtly keen to promote Pakistan-based jihadis who may well end up becoming a headache in its own Xinjiang province, where the Muslim Uighurs are restive. But one thing is certain: it appears to have decided to prop up the Pakistani deep state, both to further its own economic interests, and as a way of containing India.

Chinese pressure on Pakistan to declare Gilgit-Baltistan as its fifth province is key to legalizing its highway to Gwadar, which passes through this area. China has decided that a strong Pakistan is in its interests – and this has negative consequences for India, especially in terms of Pakistan’s Kashmir policy."

It's very likely that this accusation is true as well. After all, China is building artificial islands in the South China Sea, and using its vast military power to threaten regions belonging to Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan and India. So China wouldn't hesitate to subvert Kashmir for its own imagined benefit.

The problem is that while these accusations are true, they make no difference. Pakistan, and probably China, have been subverting Kashmir for years, but it had only a transient effect until the last year. What's changed is that the younger generations, with little fear of a new war, are driving the violence. The growing violence in Kashmir is leading to all-out war, and it won't be stopped.

One Indian editorial writer is claiming that the problems in Kashmir can be solved, and that there are three solutions:

Of course these "solutions" are completely delusional, though it's good to have them listed. I do wonder if these solutions might have been effective if they had been adopted wholeheartedly starting in the 1970s. At any rate, it's way too late now.

Furthermore, with Kashmiri students being harassed and beaten in colleges far away from Kashmir, we're seeing the Kashmir violence begin to spread to other parts of India. This is a new development, and it portends more and more violence this summer.

As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, and that China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the US, India, Russia and Iran. Times of India and BBC and Daily O (India)

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Apr-17 World View -- Kashmiri students at two Indian colleges harassed and beaten thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (22-Apr-2017) Permanent Link
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