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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Nov-2014
2-Nov-14 World View -- Boko Haram ridicules Nigeria's government, says abducted girls are married

Web Log - November, 2014

2-Nov-14 World View -- Boko Haram ridicules Nigeria's government, says abducted girls are married

Wall Street posts hyperbolic five day surge

This morning's key headlines from

ISIS slaughters hundreds from the Abu Nimr tribe in Iraq

Iraqi security forces guard a checkpoint in Ramadi, Anbar province. (Reuters)
Iraqi security forces guard a checkpoint in Ramadi, Anbar province. (Reuters)

As the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) continues to close in on Baghdad Iraq, in recent weeks they've been specially targeting the Abu Nimr tribe. Reports during the last week indicate that hundreds of tribe members have been abducted and killed in a mass slaughter. It's not known how many more of the 10,000 Abu Nimr people have also been killed.

Abu Nimr is a Sunni tribe that developed a reputation for having stood up to Saddam Hussein. In the years after the 2003 Iraq war, Abu Nimr was one of the few Sunni tribes to fight against Al-Qaeda in Iraq. Later, during the "Anbar Awakening" and the American troop "surge," Abu Nimr worked with the Americans to expel the Sunni terrorists.

Recently, Abu Nimr has been one of the few Sunni tribes fighting ISIS, but they've been running out of ammunition, and Baghdad has refused to resupply them, because the Shia government fears that the Sunni tribes will turn against them later.

ISIS has been changing its tactics since the American-led bombing raids have begun. ISIS took control of much of Iraq by means of large sweeping operations. But because of the bombings, ISIS fighters now travel in small convoys, and try to stay out of side by hiding in villages. ISIS depends for its success on the cooperation of Sunni tribes in Anbar province, but Abu Nimr was one of the holdouts. Guardian (London) and CNN and Musings on Iraq

Wall Street posts hyperbolic five day surge

Wall Street stocks surged hyperbolically again last week, with the Dow increasing by almost 600 points, and the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations) once again approaching the astronomically high value of 19, putting the stock market into an enormous bubble. The historical average for the P/E ratio is 14, and every 30 years or so it falls to the range 5-6, which is where it was last in 1982. A fall in the P/E ratio to 5-6 again will push the Dow down below 3000.

Friday's surge particularly was apparently caused by a shock announcement by the Bank of Japan that they would start a new massive "money-printing" program in the form of quantitative easing, similar to the program that the American Federal Reserve has been pursuing. It's widely believed that the Fed's QE program, which ran as high as $85 billion per month, just pumped money into the stock market, benefiting the rich people and the Washington elites, without improving the income of ordinary people.

It's now assumed that the BOJ's new QE program will have the same effect.

However, the surprise BOJ announcement was a shock to individual investors who been expecting a further dive, and had a portfolio of short sales (essentially betting that the stock share prices would continue to fall). According to stock market guru Art Cashin:

"And anybody who was bearish, is now scrambling to cover. ... What we're seeing is a massive global short-covering. That's why stocks are rallying."

Cashin added that short-covering rallies seldom last long. However, other analysts point out that the European Central Bank may make a similar announcement soon, pushing the stock market bubble even more enormous.

Generational Dynamics predicts that, like all bubbles, this bubble will burst, in the context of a global stock market panic and financial crisis, pushing the Dow back down to the 3000 level. CNBC and Reuters

Boko Haram ridicules Nigeria's government, says abducted girls are married

Few really believed the Nigerian government claim on October 17 that they had struck a deal with Boko Haram to release the 219 schoolgirls abducted on April 16 from the town of Chibok. ( "18-Oct-14 World View -- Nigerians skeptical of deal with Boko Haram to release abducted schoolgirls").

But now Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau has appeared in a video that mocks and ridicules the government, saying that that the girls have been converted to Islam and have all been married off. The video is a double humiliation for Nigeria's government because it had claimed the Shekau had been killed by the army.

Excerpts from the transcript translation of Shekau are as follows:

"Without wasting time, we hereby send a message to the tyrants of Nigeria and other infidels as well as their world tyrants as a whole in Hausa language.

You people should understand that we only obey Allah, we tread the path of the Prophet. We hope to die on this path and get eternal rest in our graves, rise up in bliss before our Lord and enter Paradise (quotes from the Koran). Our goal is the Garden of Eternal Bliss. May Allah protect us. ...

Therefore I tell you (that) we have not made ceasefire with anyone. Only battle, hitting, striking and killing with gun which we long for like tasty meal. This what we believe in and fight for. ...

When did we release Chibok schoolgirls that we seized, those that Shekau who is now talking, seized, brought them and kept them in the place he chose for more than six months now. ...

Surprisingly, if the women of Chibok, I mean the mothers of the Chibok schoolgirls and their fathers, if you know the condition your daughters are in today it could lead some to convert to Islam and some to die from grief.

Donít you know the over 200 Chibok schoolgirls have converted to Islam? They have now memorised two chapters of the Koran. They have seen themselves in the Books of Luke and John that Christians have corrupted the Bible. Girls from Chibok confessing Islam is the true religion! A six-grader, liars.

We married them off. They are in their marital homes. (Laughter) ...

What is negotiation? We did not negotiate with anyone. It is a lie. It is a lie. We will not negotiate. What is our business with negotiation? Allah said we should not."

Premium Times (Nigeria) and Independent (London)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Nov-14 World View -- Boko Haram ridicules Nigeria's government, says abducted girls are married thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (2-Nov-2014) Permanent Link
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