Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Sep-2014
17-Sep-14 World View -- Russia, India to sell supersonic cruise missile to Vietnam

Web Log - September, 2014

17-Sep-14 World View -- Russia, India to sell supersonic cruise missile to Vietnam

U.S. to send 3,000 troops to Liberia to fight Ebola

This morning's key headlines from

Russia, India to sell supersonic cruise missile to Vietnam

Picture from BrahMos press release
Picture from BrahMos press release

Talks for sale of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, jointly developed by India and Russia, to Vietnam are at an "advanced stage." Vietnam has already been deemed a "friendly country" by Russia and India, and acquisition of the BrahMos would be a significant strategic coup for Vietnam, to bolster its credible defense against China. Vietnam is ill-equipped to prevent China from annexing territories belonging to Vietnam and other countries bordering the South China Sea, and the supersonic missiles would allow Vietnam to threaten any naval assets that China may choose to use in the future against Vietnamese interests.

The BrahMos, developed jointly in a strategic partnership between Indian DRDO (Defense Research and Development Organization) and Russian NPO Mashinostroyeniya, is a stealth cruise missile with a range of 290 km and travels at a speed of Mach 2.8 to 3. Its developer claims that the missile cannot be intercepted for the next 20 years.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these alliances further support the ten-year-old prediction, based on generational analysis of the countries involved, that the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war would pit China plus Pakistan plus the Sunni Muslim countries versus the U.S. plus India plus Russia plus Iran. In Asia, the alliance between India, Russia and Vietnam is growing, while in the Mideast, we see a realignment in progress that's allying the U.S. with Iran and Russia, versus the Sunni-jihadist Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS). These realignments are continuing. Diplomat and BrahMos press release

Over 500 migrants drown in Mediterranean after boat was rammed

About 500 migrants, 400 adults and 100 children, traveling from Egypt to Malta drowned, after the boat carrying them collided with another boat. The migrants' boat may have been rammed and deliberately sunk by human traffickers, who were demanding that they give up their boat in exchange for a smaller boat. According to survivors, the traffickers were laughing after ramming and sinking the boat.

The number of migrants traveling from Africa to Europe has been surging exponentially this year, and this would be the biggest drowning incident so far. Last October there were two tragic shipwrecks last October in which more than 400 Eritrean, Somali and Syrian migrants drowned. ( "16-Oct-13 World View -- Sicily declares state of emergency as African migrants flood in")

The deaths of 400 migrants caused a scandal throughout Europe, and Italy began spending $13 million dollars per month on a program called "Mare Nostrum" (Our Sea) to rescue drowning migrants trying to reach Sicily. Many people believe that the exponential surge in migrants is an unintended consequence of the Mare Nostrum program, since a migrant can feel confident that he'll reach Europe one way or another.

Italy has been complaining bitterly that Europe should be paying a lot more of the $13 million monthly tab. The Europeans have agreed to a small expansion of its Frontex border agency into a "Frontex Plus" program, but for the most part, the Europeans are happy to sit back and just let Italy bear the entire cost. CNN and Guardian (London)

U.S. to send 3,000 troops to Liberia to fight Ebola

Most people are aware of the close relationship that the United States has had with the country of Liberia, resulting from the fact that it was founded by freed American slaves in the early 1800s. Since that time, America has provided aid and support to the country when necessary, and Liberia provided valuable resources, particularly rubber, in support of America's war effort in World War II.

With the Ebola virus spreading exponentially throughout Liberia, Liberia is facing an existential crisis, and so it's not surprising that the U.S. is going to help. Under the U.S. plan, 3,000 U.S. troops will be sent to a new command center in Liberia's capital, Monrovia, to help with the transportation of supplies and other personnel. U.S. forces will construct 17 health care facilities of 100 beds each to isolate and treat victims. The U.S. mission will also set up a facility to train 500 health care workers per week.

The Ebola crisis threatens to wipe out ten years of rebuilding Liberia following the bloody civil war that ended in 2003. Liberia's society is split between indigenous tribes -- the people who lived there before the freed slaves arrived -- and the freed slaves who settled there. Although making up only about 5% of the population, the freed slaves and their descendants, known as "Americo-Liberians," were a dominant minority and ruled Liberia following independence, until the civil war began in the 1960s. The society that sent freed slaves to Liberia in the 1800s selected the ones with the strongest Protestant Christian beliefs, and the ruling Americo-Liberian minority considered themselves and their religion to be superior to the religions of the indigenous tribes, whether animist or Muslim. Ironically, the freed slaves themselves became slavemasters to the indigenous people, continuing into the 1900s. The war ended, but tensions between the settlers and the tribes continue. The civil war that ended in 2003 left the country destitute, and now it's facing destitution again from Ebola.

Some people are criticizing the American action to be too little, too late. Based on the reports that have been coming out of Liberia in the last few months, it's quite possible that even 3,000 American troops cannot stop the rapid spread of the disease. It seems likely that the pandemic will have to run its course, meaning that almost all people in Liberia will sooner or later become sick for the disease, and either survive or not. The survivors should then be immune from further illness from Ebola. VOA and White House and Liberian National History Project

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Sep-14 World View -- Russia, India to sell supersonic cruise missile to Vietnam thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (17-Sep-2014) Permanent Link
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