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 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Jul-2014
1-Jul-14 World View -- ISIS makes laughable 'Caliphate' claim

Web Log - July, 2014

1-Jul-14 World View -- ISIS makes laughable 'Caliphate' claim

Pentagon announces additional 300 troop deployment to Iraq

This morning's key headlines from

ISIS makes laughable 'Caliphate' claim

Wanted poster for ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
Wanted poster for ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) announced that it's changing its name to just "Islamic State," is declaring the territory it controls in Syria and Iraq to be a "Caliphate," and is demanding allegiance from all Muslims worldwide to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the head of ISIS.

The demand that that all Muslims worldwide pledge allegiance to al-Baghdadi is laughable. He won't even get allegiance from many people in ISIS itself, such as the former officers in Saddam's Baathist army who are currently in ISIS only because they want to fight against the regime of prime minister Nouri al-Maliki.

In fact, ISIS's demand for allegiance from all Muslims worldwide is likely to infuriate jihadists in al-Qaeda linked groups, and may encourage fights among jihadist groups. In Syria, the terrorists in the Islamic Front, or Jabhat al-Nusra ("Victory Battlefront") will almost certainly not be willing to pledge allegiance.

Whether ISIS's "Islamic State" will last more than a few weeks or months remains to be seen. ISIS claims that the border between Syria and Iraq, which was set up by evil Westerners following World War I, has now been erased forever. However, that border has survived generational crisis wars in both Syria and Iraq in the 1980s, so the boundary is probably more solid than analysts expect.

None of this is to underestimate the danger from ISIS, particularly because ISIS has captured billions of dollars worth of American weapons including tanks, humvees, trucks, rockets, artillery pieces, rifles, ammunition, helicopters, and other heavy weaponry, from storehouses in Mosul that were supposedly being guarded by the Iraqi army. ISIS is already quickly making good use of those weapons not only in Iraq, but also in Syria. AP and LA Times

Threats to Kingdom of Jordan may require US and Israeli troops

Officials in the Kingdom of Jordan fear that with the new weapons stash and bank account of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and with their success in Iraq and Syria, that Jordan will be their next target. Jordanian officials estimate that there are some 2,000 Jordanian jihadists who are already members of ISIS or another terrorist group. In southern Jordan, in the town of Maan, Bedouin jihadists are demonstrating in favor of ISIS. Jordan's security forces have ringed the town.

However, not all extremists in Jordan are pleased with the prospect of an invasion by ISIS. A leader of Jordan's Salafi movement is quoted as saying:

"We warned those who are aligned with the Islamic State not to go out and rally or to take any action in Jordan, as it is outside their religiously sanctioned mission and would hand a gift to Jordanian authorities trying to depict us as terrorists. ... Unfortunately, these are kids who know very little about their own religion, about jihad, and are not willing to answer or listen to anybody."

If the Bedouin jihadists combine with ISIS, it would bring an Islamist revolt to King Abdullah, and an Islamist army right to the door of Israel. The Jordanian army may be stretched too thin to cope with all the threats, and the 12,000 US soldiers and USAF F-16 fighter squadron already in Jordan may get involved. Israeli forces may get involved as well. Ammon News and Economist and Debka

Pentagon announces additional 300 troop deployment to Iraq

On Monday, June 16, President Obama notified Congress that about 275 U.S. military personnel were deploying to Iraq to provide support and security for U.S. personnel and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. On Thursday, June 20, President Obama announced that 300 additional military advisors would be sent to Iraq. Since then, the USS Bataan, with 1000 marines, was the seventh warship to head for the Persian Gulf.

Now on Monday, the Pentagon announced that an additional 300 more troops are being sent to Iraq. According to the announcement:

"Capabilities provided include a detachment of helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles, which will bolster airfield and travel route security. Similar to the U.S. security personnel who arrived in Baghdad earlier this month to provide support and security for U.S. personnel and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, they will integrate with existing U.S. embassy security teams."

According to CNN, the purpose of the new deployment is to protect the Baghdad airport, which must be protected from ISIS at all costs.

This brings to 800 the total number of US troops in Iraq, almost three times as many as in President Obama's original announcement on June 16. Department of Defense and CNN

What do we call ISIS now?

The naming of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has always been somewhat chaotic. Some media call it ISIL, others ISIS. Some call it Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or the Levant or al-Sham. Months ago, I tried to finesse the problem by referring to "The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria/Sham/theLevant (ISIS or ISIL)," which was kind of a cute and ironic way of covering all the bases. I finally gave that up in the main articles, because it was too clunky, though in the keywords section at the end, I still use something like "Islamic State in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL."

So now we have a new name, "Islamic State," adding to the chaos. So I can finesse this in the keywords section with: "Islamic State / in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL." That should cover everything for now. What should I do in the article text? Maybe "Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS, ISIS)." Or maybe I'll just stick with ISIS for a while, and see what other people do.

There's one more name that you'll sometimes see in the press: DAESH, which it's the Arabic form of ISIL, meaning that it's the initials of the Arabic words for Islamic State in Syria and al-Sham.

Israel threatens revenge for deaths of three kidnapped teenagers

Three Israeli teenagers who were abducted on June 10 were found dead on Monday, in a pit in the West Bank. They had been the subject of an extensive manhunt throughout the West Bank, during which hundreds of Palestinians, mostly members of Hamas, were arrested. Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that the three were "kidnapped and murdered in cold blood by animals" and promised: "Hamas will pay." Hamas is threatening retaliation for any attempt to punish Hamas. BBC and Jerusalem Post

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Jul-14 World View -- ISIS makes laughable 'Caliphate' claim thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (1-Jul-2014) Permanent Link
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