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 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-May-2014
29-May-14 World View -- Major faction defects from Pakistan Taliban, splitting it in two

Web Log - May, 2014

29-May-14 World View -- Major faction defects from Pakistan Taliban, splitting it in two

Riot police dismantle migrant camps in Calais France

This morning's key headlines from

Riot police dismantle migrant camps in Calais France

For many of the refugees, all of their belongings were bulldozed into a pile and put into plastic bags (AFP)
For many of the refugees, all of their belongings were bulldozed into a pile and put into plastic bags (AFP)

Three days after the anti-immigrant Front National party hammered France's ruling Socialist party in elections of members to the European Parliament, French riot police began forcibly evacuating three migrant campsites in the northern city of Calais on Wednesday. Some 500 migrants, mostly from Syria and Afghanistan, were forced to grab whatever belongings they could before bulldozers came and cleared the area.

Calais is a port town on the English Channel, and it's France's closest point to Britain. Each year it draws thousands of migrants hoping to travel to Britain, where they would try to get a job and take advantage of Britain's welfare and health benefits. France 24 and Euro News

1,000 migrants storm Spain's Melilla enclave in Africa

A flood of migrants scaled the metallic fence dividing Morocco from Metilla (AP)
A flood of migrants scaled the metallic fence dividing Morocco from Metilla (AP)

On the same day that French riot police stormed the Calais migrant camp, about 1,000 African migrants in Morocco stormed the border and entered Spain's Melilla enclave. The enclave is considered Spanish territory, and therefore European territory. The border between Morocco and Melilla is separated by two tall metallic fences. If only a few migrants attempt to cross, then the border police can stop them. But on Wednesday, 1,000 migrants stormed the border in a coordinated crossing. Some 400 of the migrants made it across, and headed for the CETI refugee center there. The refugee center is supposed to handle only 500 refugees, but it's now accommodating about 2,000. The migrants will be processed at the center. A few will be offered asylum in mainland Spain, and the rest will be sent back. The Local (Spain)

Major faction defects from Pakistan Taliban, splitting it in two

Pakistanis are expressing glee at the news of a major split in the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP).

The TTP is an umbrella organization for a number of terrorist organizations in Pakistan. The TTP was founded in 2007 and led for years by Baitullah Mehsud, from the Mehsud tribe in Waziristan. Baitullah Mehsud was killed by an American drone strike in 2009. He was succeeded by Hakimullah Mehsud, but Hakimullah Mehsud, also from the Mehsud tribe, was later killed by another drone strike, this time in November 2011.

The TTP was taken over by a non-Mehsud leader, Maulana Fazlullah. A number of factions have been unhappy with Fazlullah's leadership, and there have been bloody clashes between different militant organizations, becoming more violent in the last few weeks.

A spokesman for the Mehsud tribe said on Wednesday:

"We announce our defection from the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, we have chosen Khalid Mehsud as the new leader for South Waziristan.

The present (Fazlullah-led) Taliban regime is carrying out bomb attacks on public places with bogus names and also money is being extorted from madrassas and other institutions which is not acceptable.

[The leadership] within the TTP has gone towards robberies, extortion, unjustified killing [and targeting] Islamic madrassas, and it is taking foreign funding to attack targets in Afghanistan, taking responsibility for attacks under false identities, creating divisions within other jihadi groups, and especially spreading unfounded propaganda against the Afghan Taliban.

The TTP leadership has fallen into the hands of a bunch of conspirators, the umbrella organization is involved in criminal activities like robbery and extortion.

We consider the bombing of public places, extortion and kidnappings un-Islamic, and since the TTP leaders continued with these practices, we decided we should not share the responsibility."

According to the spokesman, the Mehsud group is "unhappy" at the deviation by Mullah Fazlullah from the real struggle of the TTP the establishment of an Islamic state. BBC and Dawn (Pakistan)

Is this the end of the TTP (Pakistan Taliban)?

A number of commentators are saying that this marks the end of the TTP altogether, and that may well be true. It's going to be difficult to get a collection of bloody terrorist groups to agree to obey the same leader.

Other commentators are saying that this is good news, because it now means that the "peace process" between the government and the Taliban can go ahead. I can't imagine how anyone could possibly believe this. The whole Pakistan "peace process" concept was always a total fantasy, as I've written many times, but if there ever were going to be some sort of signed peace agreement, it would have to have been with a leadership powerful enough to bring everyone into line. Obviously the Taliban has nothing like that today, if it ever did.

I've written about any number of TTP-linked terrorist groups. There's Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), which is dedicated to war with India, and which masterminded the Mumbai's horrific 26/11' three-day terrorist attack. There's Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), which has publicly and firmly announced as its goal the extermination of all Shia Muslims and Hazaras in Pakistan, and has been methodically setting off bombs in order to achieve that goal, and is connected to Jundullah, a terrorist group that has perpetrated major attacks on Shia mosques and Revolutionary Guard stations in southeastern Iran. And there's Tanzeem-ul-Islami-ul-Furqan (TIF), which we described two days ago, and is methodically attacking schools in southern Balochistan enrolling girl students.

These organizations are not now going to agree to some kind of "peace agreement" because TTP is splintering. In fact, if TTP had any effect at all on these organizations, it would have been to be more moderate, for the common good of all the bloody TTP terrorists. But without the umbrella group, they're now free to act on their own, slaughtering civilians at will, with nothing to inhibit them.

As I've said many times, the Generational Dynamics prediction is that India and Pakistan will re-fight the bloody war between Hindus and Muslims that followed Partition, the 1947 partitioning of the Indian sub-continent into India and Pakistan. That war was not directed by presidents or prime ministers or leaders of any kind on either side. It was driven by massive slaughter coming from entire generations of people, entire generations of Hindus versus entire generations of Muslims, in what was one of the bloodiest battles of the century. The splintering of TTP can only bring a new version of that war closer. Tribune (Pakistan) and Al-Jazeera

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-May-14 World View -- Major faction defects from Pakistan Taliban, splitting it in two thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (29-May-2014) Permanent Link
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