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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Jan-2014
29-Jan-14 World View -- China's military moves to seize Malaysia's James Shoal

Web Log - January, 2014

29-Jan-14 World View -- China's military moves to seize Malaysia's James Shoal

Syria's 'peace conference' proceeds as total farce

This morning's key headlines from

Ukraine anti-government protests spread into the east

Protesters sit behind a barricade in Kiev on Tuesday (CNN)
Protesters sit behind a barricade in Kiev on Tuesday (CNN)

Up until now, the anti-government protests have been in the west, which is populated by Ukrainian-speaking ethnic Ukrainians demanding the resignation of president Viktor Yanukovych, who is from the east, which is comprised mostly of Russian-speaking ethnic Russians. However, now the protests are spreading into a few Russian-speaking cities in the east, indicating that Yanukovych may be losing control of the situation. In an attempt to head off further erosion of his credibility, he's accepted the resignation of the prime minister Mykola Azarov, and all the ministers in his cabinet, something that would have been unthinkable just two weeks ago. These resignations came shortly after the parliament voted to repeal the "anti-protest" law that had triggered a surge in violence two weeks ago.

Despite the spread to a few cities in the east, the protests do not appear to be spiraling into a larger conflict between Ukrainians and Russians. Right now the protests are almost purely political, and are being spurred by a few activists. It doesn't appear that that's going to change soon. BBC and Telegraph (London)

U.N. Security Council approves EU troops for Central African Republican

Fearing that the the violence between Muslims and Christians in the Central African Republic might spiral out of control into a full-scale genocidal civil war, like the one between the Hutus and the Tutsis in Rwanda in 1994, the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday unanimously voted to permit the European Union to supply 500 peacekeeping troops to the CAR, to join 1,600 French troops and 5,000 African Union troops already there.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, CAR is deep into a generation Crisis era, and the chances of a genocidal explosion are all but certain. ( "20-Jan-14 World View -- Mob rule in Central African Republic as Christians crave revenge") CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), targeting the French colonialists. In any event, the addition of another 500 peacekeeping troops to the thousands already there is unlikely to prevent what is coming anyway. United Nations and Reuters

Syria's 'peace conference' proceeds as total farce

The "Geneva-II" meetings are progressing in Switzerland this week, with the representatives of the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad facing off against the representatives of the opposition rebels. The mainstream media is oohing and ahhing about how these meetings are a big step forward. The meetings are moderated by Lakhdar Brahimi, the Special Envoy appointed by the UN and the Arab League.

Here's how these meetings go: In the mornings, both sides are in the same room with Brahimi. The two sides are in the same room, but they don't talk to each other. Each of them talks only to Brahimi. The purpose of the morning sessions is to discuss the agenda for the afternoon sessions. In the afternoon sessions, the two sides are in different rooms, and Brahimi goes back and forth between the rooms, like Henry Kissinger's "shuttle diplomacy."

As we said the other day, al-Assad has no reason to compromise on anything. He's used sarin gas on his own people, he uses "industrial strength" torture on people, and every day he uses barrel bombs on his own people, which are designed to kill, maim and torture as many people as possible, especially women and children. Russia supplies an unlimited number of heavy weapons for Assad to use to continue his psychopathic murder. Al-Assad will probably win the war after he's killed off a few million more of his people, so why should he bother to compromise?

As an example of what a waste of time these Geneva meetings are, you need only look at what the mainstream media are calling "breakthroughs." The breakthrough that they always refer to is that both sides are in the same room, though they rarely mention that the two sides never actually talk to each other.

But the really, really big breakthrough was an agreement to allow some 2,500 women and children to leave the city of Homs, where they are trapped by all the bombing. I was surprised that Assad agreed to this because I assume that he gets sexual pleasure out of bombing women and children. But on Sunday he agreed to it.

But then on Tuesday, the al-Assad regime announced that all the militias (meaning all the men) would have to leave the city first, and then he would allow the women and children to leave. So, as usual, the al-Assad regime was just lying when they agreed to let the women and children leave. As usual, al-Assad and the Russians made complete fools of the mainstream media and the Western politicians.

These meetings are supposed to end on Friday, but Tuesday afternoon's session was called off because the two sides are completely deadlocked. Let's watch and see if there are any further "breakthroughs" before Friday. BBC

China's military moves to seize Malaysia's James Shoal

Malaysia's James Shoal and China (Google Maps)
Malaysia's James Shoal and China (Google Maps)

China has sent three armed ships to patrol the region around James Shoal in waters belonging to Malaysia that China has indicated in the past that it plans to seize. The shoal is named Zengmu Reef by the Chinese. According to Xinhua:

"During the ceremony held in the Zengmu Reef area, soldiers and officers aboard swore an oath of determination to safeguard the country's sovereignty and maritime interests.

[The fleet commander] urged soldiers and officers to always be prepared to fight, improve combat capabilities and lead the forces to help build the country into a maritime power."

If looking at the above map makes you think that James Shoal is awfully far away from China to be claiming it, then you would be right.

China is claiming vast areas of the South China Sea, including regions that that have historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines, and has threatened to use its vast military power to threaten and subdue any neighboring nation that disobeys its orders. This comes just a few days after China escalated tensions by demanding that any foreign fishing vessel ask permission from China's military before fishing in the South China Sea. ( "16-Jan-14 World View -- China threatens military seizure of South China Sea island from Philippines")

China's media have reported a strategy of seizing one island after another, in each case without expecting any actual military confrontation because of its vast military power. China would be counting on the fact that this one-by-one approach would allow gradual seizure of the entire region without triggering a military response from the United States. As weeks go by, it seems that China is becoming more and more bellicose and militaristic. Generational Dynamics predicts that China is rapidly and aggressively preparing for preemptive war against the United States, and is rapidly developing a variety of missile systems with no other purpose than to strike American cities, aircraft carriers, and military installations. Malaysia Chronicle and Reuters

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Jan-14 World View -- China's military moves to seize Malaysia's James Shoal thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (29-Jan-2014) Permanent Link
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